January 2024

[psv88]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

So are we canceling winter in December?

No.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So are we canceling winter in December?

No but it's on hiatus

[NittanyWx]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The SSW got a ton of tweets by respectable accounts which kind of surprised me 

It's something to discuss, but it's also only relevant for Feb...maybe...if it actually happens as progged.   There's no issue talking about it, but a lot of people do tend to overhype the correlation to 2m temp, and specifically to 2m temp in the east. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

It's something to discuss, but it's also only relevant for Feb...maybe...if it actually happens as progged.   There's no issue talking about it, but a lot of people do tend to overhype the correlation to 2m, and specifically to 2m in the east. 

I feel like it gets lots of talk when we are in a mild/snowless winter. It’s usually brought up as one last ditch effort to justify a seasonal outlook or snowy turnaround. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So are we canceling winter in December?

All we are saying is if we get to 1/15 and still not tracking a legit threat or see changes a few days away it’s time to punt this winter . 
 

Yes, we can get one storm in February but by that point the chances of a huge cold/snowy winter are over 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

All we are saying is if we get to 1/15 and still not tracking a legit threat or see changes a few days away it’s time to punt this winter . 
 

Yes, we can get one storm in February but by that point the chances of a huge cold/snowy winter are over 

Need to lower expectations.  I'll take a Feb 95 repeat at this point 

[NittanyWx]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I feel like it gets lots of talk when we are in a mild/snowless winter. It’s usually brought up as one last ditch effort to justify a seasonal outlook or snowy turnaround. 

 

I mean, it can be something that helps turnaround...maybe?  It can be relevant to the pattern relative to blocking in the right set of circumstances.  But I think the better question is 'are the weeklies already seeing that' in their week 3-5 timelines and further are you doing a better job determining regional temp anomaly distribution than the weeklies are relying heavily on SSW as the basis for your view.  Many times the climate models are taking a strato warming event and are assimilating it into those forecasts.  So I'm not sure how much forecasting edge you're actually gaining from pointing it out.  

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Need to lower expectations.  I'll take a Feb 95 repeat at this point 

Was that the most snow we ever got in a single storm after December and January were basically snowless?

It would be interesting to see some stats on that!

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

I mean, it can be something that helps turnaround...maybe?  It can be relevant to the pattern relative to blocking in the right set of circumstances.  But I think the better question is 'are the weeklies already seeing that' in their week 3-5 timelines and further are you doing a better job determining regional temp anomaly distribution than the weeklies are relying heavily on SSW as the basis for your view.  Many times the climate models are taking a strato warming event and are assimilating it into those forecasts.  So I'm not sure how much forecasting edge you're actually gaining from pointing it out.  

Agreed. If the weeklies are forecasting this big turnaround because of a SSW then it will most likely be kicked further down the road. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Need to lower expectations.  I'll take a Feb 95 repeat at this point 

Lol that was yet another disaster winter of the 70 through 1999 period. 

However you are correct in even though we only had one storm the entire season, it was a real good one and would take.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Need to lower expectations.  I'll take a Feb 95 repeat at this point 

How about just a inch of snow for phl nyc and Boston haha

[Allsnow]

Gfs gives Vegas a good snowstorm 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that the most snow we ever got in a single storm after December and January were basically snowless?

It would be interesting to see some stats on that!

.2 in January 11.6 in February that was it for the winter 

[JTA66]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All we are saying is if we get to 1/15 and still not tracking a legit threat or see changes a few days away it’s time to punt this winter . 
 

Yes, we can get one storm in February but the by that point the chances of a huge cold/snowy winter are over 

This.

Jan 15/MLK Day-ish is my annual toss-the-towel date. If we haven't seen cold and snow by then and the models are still can kicking any pattern change out into the LR, the writing is on the wall. Met winter is half over by then. (Yes, I know it snows in March and April). Not saying we wouldn't see a 10 day-two week period at some point where we can get on the board. But any significant turn around is unlikely at that point.

[BucksCO_PA]

DEC will go down as a very noteworthy month at Philadelphia in terms of warmth & precip. Currently sitting tied with 2012 for the 8th warmest DEC on record, not out of the question given today's big + departure & the outlook for the remainder of the month that we move up to 6th warmest. Regarding precip this will go into the books as the 3rd wettest DEC on record.

Additionally the current monthly low at PHL is 29 degrees, this is tied with 2012 for the 2nd warmest DEC min temp on record only behind the 30 degrees in 2015. Lastly this year is only the 8th time on record in which the NOV min temp (25 degrees) will be lower than the DEC min temp, interesting that 5 of those 8 instances have occurred since 2012. Philadelphia precip records go back to 1872, for temp records it's 1874.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

How about just a inch of snow for phl nyc and Boston haha

It's following the same story so far, first inch WAS that storm, and it was the only one the entire season.

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

You see a very small sliver of the pro's.  Social media pros tend to skew cold because it drives interactions.    I don't view Bustardi as an operational met anymore so much as a political pundit hocking books.  He has long past his expiration date on reliable forecaster in the long range and a lot of folks have wised up to it.  Margavage was in school when I was and flunked out, now returns as the 'cold and snow' guy and gets a following.

 

There are a lot of good mets around, a lot, whose opinion I value and respect.  Some of them were cold 1h Jan, many were not.  But they're not gonna be the loudest voice on twitter.

JB has been terrible temp forecasts are way too cold and his call of cold and disruptive frozen events for Xmas week was a spectacular bust

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No but it's on hiatus

How can it be on hiatus if it never started December was a furnace all the Xmas wreaths here are brown lol 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

This.

Jan 15/MLK Day-ish is my annual toss-the-towel date. If we haven't seen cold and snow by then and the models are still can kicking any pattern change out into the LR, the writing is on the wall. Met winter is half over by then. (Yes, I know it snows in March and April). Not saying we wouldn't see a 10 day-two week period at some point where we can get on the board. But any significant turn around is unlikely at that point.

Great post 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

.2 in January 11.6 in February that was it for the winter 

Nothing in December either?

[NittanyWx]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. If the weeklies are forecasting this big turnaround because of a SSW then it will most likely be kicked further down the road. 

I think you misunderstood what I'm saying.

 

I'm saying if the weeklies are already seeing it, as a forecaster are you adding any skill on top of it by coming out and saying 'this SSW will dramatically change things'...I'd argue going counter to the weeklies in the dramatically colder direction for example could end up burning you a lot of the time.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB has been terrible temp forecasts are way too cold and his call of cold and disruptive frozen events for Xmas week was a spectacular bust

He's now posting 840 hour snow maps  

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nothing in December either?

No. 11.8 total

[Stormlover74]

Everyone should download this spreadsheet 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical

Choose snow then monthly & annual from the drop down menu

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

All we are saying is if we get to 1/15 and still not tracking a legit threat or see changes a few days away it’s time to punt this winter . 
 

Yes, we can get one storm in February but by that point the chances of a huge cold/snowy winter are over 

Agreed. I’m giving it until 1/20. If there’s nothing absolutely imminent as far as real cold and a workable PAC at that point (not fantasy cold and snow on the long range models at day 15), then I’m going full ratter and calling my cold/snowy February guess a bust. I don’t care if we get a -NAO/-AO if the PAC is garbage. The *possible* major SSW and split fail and still abysmal snow and ice cover in the source region aside, this isn’t helping either, I don’t see how we magically go to a cooperative PAC/PAC jet with an El Niño this strong: @NittanyWx Thoughts? @bluewave

[the_other_guy]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No but it's on hiatus

…and the weeks are ticking by quickly

[donsutherland1]

The mild weather rolls on as the second warmest December and warmest year on record concludes in New York City.

1. The weekly guidance now shows the shift to a cooler, but not cold pattern for the first week of January. The duration could be 1-2 weeks.

2. Consistent with historic experience following cases where the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reached +3.000 or above during December 15-25, no big snowfalls are likely through at least January 10. The biggest snowfall for such cases was 6.4" in during winter January 2013-14.

3. The forthcoming sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) is looking less likely to be a major event. But its impact, even if a major event occurs, would not be instantaneous. It typically takes 2-4 weeks for its propagation into and through the troposphere begin to influence the hemispheric weather patterns. Its peak influence is mainly being felt 30-45 days after the event. Such events can trigger or reinforce Atlantic blocking. They do not provide anything close to guarantees of severe cold or major snowstorms.

4. That the models have diverged from strong consensus that had favored a major warming event and splitting of the polar vortex isn't too surprising. Such events are still not well understood. Over the medium and extended range, forecasting skill remains low.

5. Strong El Niño winters are typically "backloaded." Most of the seasonal snowfall falls January 16 or later in the New York City area. Those with the most pessimistic view might argue that 75% of 0.0" is still 0.0".

6. New York City has never seen two consecutive winters with less than 10" of snow since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. Such cases typically begin to appear when average seasonal snowfall declines below 25.0" (not the case for NYC at present). They remain relatively infrequent when seasonal snowfall falls to between 15.0" and 19.9" and but become relatively frequent once seasonal snowfall declines below 15.0". Considering the data from Allentown, Atlantic City, Baltimore, Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC, there is no record of such occurrences when the seasonal snowfall was 25.0" or above. But with the larger climate context shifting, one can't completely rule out such a case for New York City as extremes increase in non-linear fashion, even as such an outcome remains unlikely. One will likely begin to see such occurrences later in the 2030s and beyond as seasonal snowfall declines toward 20" by the mid-2030s and then below it afterward as winters continue to warm. The last such period with seasonal snowfall declining below 25.0" (the 1990s) had some "near misses."

In sum, Winter 2023-24 appears to remain on a trajectory that will result in an overall warm anomaly. Snowfall could be below normal but taking into consideration ENSO climatology, it is premature to assume another almost snowless winter is locked in stone.

 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

…and the weeks are ticking by quickly

IMO this winter has a little over 3 weeks to get its act together and put up or shut up if it’s really going to get cold and snowy or it’s not going to happen

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. I’m giving it until 1/20. If there’s nothing absolutely imminent as far as real cold and a workable PAC at that point (not fantasy cold and snow on the long range models at day 15), then I’m going full ratter and calling my cold/snowy February guess a bust. I don’t care if we get a -NAO/-AO if the PAC is garbage. The *possible* major SSW and split fail and still abysmal snow and ice cover in the source region aside, this isn’t helping either, I don’t see how we magically go to a cooperative PAC/PAC jet with an El Niño this strong: 

when did we know in 2015-16 that this winter would not be a complete loss?

was it just before the HECS happened or did we have an indication of a pattern change weeks before?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The mild weather rolls on as the second warmest December and warmest year on record concludes in New York City.

1. The weekly guidance now shows the shift to a cooler, but not cold pattern for the first week of January. The duration could be 1-2 weeks.

2. Consistent with historic experience following cases where the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reached +3.000 or above during December 15-25, no big snowfalls are likely through at least January 10. The biggest snowfall for such cases was 6.4" in during winter January 2013-14.

3. The forthcoming sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) is looking less likely to be a major event. But its impact, even if a major event occurs, would not be instantaneous. It typically takes 2-4 weeks for its propagation into and through the troposphere begin to influence the hemispheric weather patterns. Its peak influence is mainly being felt 30-45 days after the event. Such events can trigger or reinforce Atlantic blocking. They do not provide anything close to guarantees of severe cold or major snowstorms.

4. That the models have diverged from strong consensus that had favored a major warming event and splitting of the polar vortex isn't too surprising. Such events are still not well understood. Over the medium and extended range, forecasting skill remains low.

5. Strong El Niño winters are typically "backloaded." Most of the seasonal snowfall falls January 16 or later in the New York City area. Those with the most pessimistic view might argue that 75% of 0.0" is still 0.0".

6. New York City has never seen two consecutive winters with less than 10" of snow since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. Such cases typically begin to appear when average seasonal snowfall declines below 25.0" (not the case for NYC at present). They remain relatively infrequent when seasonal snowfall falls to between 15.0" and 19.9" and but become relatively frequent once seasonal snowfall declines below 15.0". Considering the data from Allentown, Atlantic City, Baltimore, Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC, there is no record of such occurrences when the seasonal snowfall was 25.0" or above. But with the larger climate context shifting, one can't completely rule out such a case for New York City as extremes increase in non-linear fashion, even as such an outcome remains unlikely. One will likely begin to see such occurrences later in the 2030s and beyond as seasonal snowfall declines toward 20" by the mid-2030s and then below it afterward as winters continue to warm. The last such period with seasonal snowfall declining below 25.0" (the 1990s) had some "near misses."

In sum, Winter 2023-24 appears to remain on a trajectory that will result in an overall warm anomaly. Snowfall could be below normal but taking into consideration ENSO climatology, it is premature to assume another almost snowless winter is locked in stone.

 

for JFK though their seasonal snowfall is less than 25 right Don-- so being in the same general area, that could mean a quicker increase of extremely low snowfall totals?