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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not when the the trees block the thermometer and radiation shield from direct sunlight. More rural weather stations have the thermometers in clearings not under a dense canopy of trees. The Central Park great lawn is probably at least 2-3° warmer during the warm season at peak daily heating than under a tree canopy near the castle. Under some weather conditions the difference at peak heating could be even higher than 3°. So the great lawn isn’t that different in regard to highs than EWR and LGA. But the shaded areas are at least 2-3° cooler. That’s why the old site in the park used to average more 90° days than LGA but a few less than EWR. The taller trees are also reducing the winds at the park. This is why NYC hasn’t been able to beat its all-time highest wind gust from the early 70s.

Notice how the sensors are located away from obstructions like trees.

 

 

I get the standards (and the importance of adhering to standards) for measuring air temperature, but it seems counterintuitive that direct sun on a temperature sensor is bad, but direct sun on the shield over that sensor is good.

How about in a densely forested community where the only open ground is where the sensor is located?  It might tell you something useful about the air mass without accurately reflecting the surrounding conditions.  The same could be said about the current state of affairs in Central Park.

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30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I get the standards (and the importance of adhering to standards) for measuring air temperature, but it seems counterintuitive that direct sun on a temperature sensor is bad, but direct sun on the shield over that sensor is good.

How about in a densely forested community where the only open ground is where the sensor is located?  It might tell you something useful about the air mass without accurately reflecting the surrounding conditions.  The same could be said about the current state of affairs in Central Park.

The Pine Barrens are one of the most densely forested areas of Long Island and the official weather BNL equipment is located in a clearing. That’s the national and global standard for official weather observing sites that measure temperature for meteorological purposes. But under canopy temperatures are mostly limited to studies about wildlife and biology.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/

905375DE-35D3-4B1C-A85F-8B7DD3E92AD5.jpeg.47ea68d656ed9f2525ff3f998d996a5e.jpeg

 

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20 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

LOL, a sea breeze that has them 1 degree lower than Dulles, nice try

Temp data at Dulles only goes back to 1962, the 79 degree JAN records at DC & Baltimore were set in 1950. 

whatever you need to tell yourself 

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16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

DC is much warmer than us. 

Normal high there for today is 45F

sometimes that gets glossed over.

Still very warm in the low 70s but it would be much warmer if it was in the low 70s here relative to normal

Since 1872 DC has recorded 75 degrees or higher on 13 occasions during the month of JAN. 9 of those occasions were before they even started keeping records at Dulles.

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Just now, BucksCO_PA said:

Since 1872 DC has recorded 75 degrees or higher on 13 occasions during the month of JAN. 9 of those occasions were before they even started keeping records at Dulles.

you whenever there's a record high somewhere:

It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" Sweet Dee Has a Heart Attack (TV Episode  2008) - IMDb

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The January 26, 2024 12z run of the GFS is an outlier among the global models, both for the near-term (next 72 hours) and medium-term (240 hours). Its 10:1 maps show an extremely snowy 10-day period centered parts of New England. Boston will be used as an example to illustrate the extreme nature of the run. The 12z run shows 33.4" of snow at Boston over the 10-day period ending February 5, 2024 12z.

image.thumb.png.cc74f867083e52b53a69e3850215beaf.png

That map is extremely unlikely to verify.

There have been just four prior cases where Boston has seen 33.0" or more snowfall over a 10-day period (overlapping periods excluded). None of the highlighted periods was even close to being as mild as the one that is forecast on the 12z GFS.

image.png.abe81fcea0547709f8f1885a52b8e326.png

image.png.5ac7bf3508bc770445267104d27889bb.png

image.png.c22ff68643633652e4c5b3ef33aa74e3.png

In sum, the 12z GFS solution through 240 hours should be disregarded:

  • It's an outlier among global models
  • It has no support among the ensembles
  • It calls for the kind of snowfall that has not occurred before with such mild conditions as forecast
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29 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

LOL, a sea breeze that has them 1 degree lower than Dulles, nice try

Temp data at Dulles only goes back to 1962, the 79 degree JAN records at DC & Baltimore were set in 1950. 

Washington, DC (DCA) has hit 80° for a high so far.

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10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Washington, DC (DCA) has hit 80° for a high so far.

It’s pretty ridiculous for DCA to even go above 75° in January during an El Niño which is supposed to be cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. All the previous years were La Ninas or ENSO neutral.


 

Time Series Summary for WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT, VA - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
ONI      
1 1950 79 -1.5
2 2002 77 -0.1
3 1975 76 -0.5
4 1974 75 -1.8
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10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Closer to a La Niña January 500 mb pattern for the US even though it’s a borderline super El Niño. Very impressive how the MJO really shaped this pattern due to the record SST warmth from the IO to WPAC. The Euro seasonal was going with a stock January El Niño 500 mb composite back with its December forecast. 

1B888C55-CFE0-4EDD-8446-9F5497A02DE8.gif.7cb1963a1fe46e8e02e46de54d8e023c.gif

B608796D-9344-4634-8C2D-94A84C4513AF.png.d376d71128c14e559a10f6a3fd83ddc1.png

67DEAAA6-984A-4328-B9A3-FCA8CFA656F0.jpeg.2afd1371e55cbc76c6fd248ce3689220.jpeg


 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Similar to a La Niña January 500 mb pattern for the US even though it’s a borderline super El Niño. Very impressive how the MJO really shaped this pattern due to the record SST warmth from the IO to WPAC. The Euro seasonal was going with a stock January  El Niño 500 mb composite back with its December forecast. 

1B888C55-CFE0-4EDD-8446-9F5497A02DE8.gif.7cb1963a1fe46e8e02e46de54d8e023c.gif

B608796D-9344-4634-8C2D-94A84C4513AF.png.d376d71128c14e559a10f6a3fd83ddc1.png

67DEAAA6-984A-4328-B9A3-FCA8CFA656F0.jpeg.2afd1371e55cbc76c6fd248ce3689220.jpeg


 

 

The mjo rules the roost 

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What is really remarkable about DC hitting 80 today is this is over 3-1/2 wks. ahead of the earliest 80 degree day on record - 2/21/2018. The average 1st 80 day over the entire POR back to 1872 is 4/5. Since 2000 that average date is 3/25.

DC has only recorded (4) 80 degree days during the month of FEB, just wow

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7 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

What is really remarkable about DC hitting 80 today is this is over 3-1/2 wks. ahead of the earliest 80 degree day on record - 2/21/2018. The average 1st 80 day over the entire POR back to 1872 is 4/5. Since 2000 that average date is 3/25.

I am pretty freaked out by that 80. I know there is climate change, but wow!

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