Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Especially with a horrible airmass and no blocking… @bluewave always said you don’t want to be in the bullseye 120 hours out. Verbatim it's heavy rain to snow at night so at least we'd have that going for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: We never had a snow event when everything was positive ? we have had snow events in unfavorable overall patterns and we have had no snowstorms in the most favorable patterns - this event is all about timing and if that HP in Canada can get in place before the storm approach's 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: if the ECMWF is correct and you have a strengthening closed low S of LI and cold air rushing in due to a partial phase, it'll snow here just need to see if it has the right idea Look at that ridge out west. That also has been trending stronger which is possibly slowing down the southern stream . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, NEG NAO said: we have had snow events in unfavorable overall patterns and we have had no snowstorms in the most favorable patterns - this event is all about timing and if that HP in Canada can get in place before the storm approach's Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Especially with a horrible airmass and no blocking… @bluewave always said you don’t want to be in the bullseye 120 hours out. I definitely agree that this is unlikely to work out for our area, but it is late January. If there's a time of year we're most likely to get lucky with a thread the needle event in a bad pattern, this is it. Both Euro and CMC have us changing over to heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning, so it's something to watch. I think it's only a slight chance but it's good to have something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: No but this is a weather forum where we post all weather. I don't see the subforum talking about the storm. Heck even the Mid Atlantic subforum is posting about it The thread was started at 930 AM and comments about Sunday should go into that thread. That’s what it’s for. Thanks. Am on the road 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The compressed heights from the N/S slows down the main trough forces slower development. Cmc and icon were in general agree. This could also be the euro going crazy with the ccb aspect, but certainly the trend we want to see . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 Just now, Heisy said: The compressed heights from the N/S slows down the main trough forces slower development. Cmc and icon were in general agree. This could also be the euro going crazy with the ccb aspect, but certainly the trend we want to see . Ensembles smooth out the drama. We want the ensembles to keep us in the mix as we get closer to Sunday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 There’s also a second event towards day 10. N/S clipper like diver. Gfs has been on this a few runs now. Euro had it last night. 12z euro has this wave as well… see what it does with it . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 i'm still skeptical about Sunday given the overall pattern and the marginal temps, but it's a very dynamic setup with a potential phase that would bring in Arctic air. crazier things have happened, and it's worth keeping an eye on 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Historical climatology, which favors areas north of NYC into New England, including Boston, noted, the Sunday-Monday storm is worth watching. While it's premature to embrace any solutions, when the two highest-scoring models (ECMWF and GGEM) reach agreement on a scenario, it bears watching. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro took away our warmth on Friday… Ugh 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Regarding the lack of interest on this storm, do we not remember the countless posts over the past few days that basically said it's impossible for us to get a meaningful snow storm in this pattern?! Sort of put a damper on things. It's still unlikely that this one works out for coastal sections but crazier things have happened in hostile patterns. We are in favorable climo for this sort of thing to occur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Regarding the lack of interest on this storm, do we not remember the countless posts over the past few days that basically said it's impossible for us to get a meaningful snow storm in this pattern?! Sort of put a damper on things. It's still unlikely that this one works out for coastal sections but crazier things have happened in hostile patterns. We are in favorable climo for this sort of thing to occur. I don't like the pattern, but in the same way you can get skunked in a great pattern, you can also cash in during a crappy one 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 move the 1/28 storm talk to this thread: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I definitely agree that this is unlikely to work out for our area, but it is late January. If there's a time of year we're most likely to get lucky with a thread the needle event in a bad pattern, this is it. Both Euro and CMC have us changing over to heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning, so it's something to watch. I think it's only a slight chance but it's good to have something to track. you are contradicting yourself unfortunately IMO - plus you give no reason why its unlikely... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you are contradicting yourself unfortunately IMO - plus you give no reason why its unlikely... Contradicting myself? Not sure what's so hard understand about me believing that it's a slight chance of working out. Others have talked about the marginal airmass and bad pattern. My point is we can get lucky in bad patterns occasionally, especially this time of year since it's the heart of winter. So it's something to keep an eye on and better than having no chance at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't like the pattern, but in the same way you can get skunked in a great pattern, you can also cash in during a crappy one Completely agree. We scored a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 50 to 70 degree warmth all month. If we can get a moderate event then, why not now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 hours ago, Rjay said: Genuine question here (bc I'm too tired and lazy to look up the stats). How many below average months has Philly and NYC had respectively in the last 5 years? slapped it together at lunch so may not be perfect, also tabled back to 2010 for comparison * for entertainment purposes only* don't want the hard core data people getting traumatized by a simple mean & total table PHL did run warm for a little over a year during the recent 5 yr trend however that looks to have been rectified now. Well if nothing else we can at least enjoy May & November. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Completely agree. We scored a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 50 to 70 degree warmth all month. If we can get a moderate event then, why not now. How do you still remember this storm lol. I don't remember much about it at all except that there was some minor snow event around Valentines Day and the pictures out of Central Park looked pretty good. I don't remember snowfall amounts or what time it occurred (day or night-- although I think it was at night.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How do you still remember this storm lol. I don't remember much about it at all except that there was some minor snow event around Valentines Day and the pictures out of Central Park looked pretty good. I don't remember snowfall amounts or what time it occurred (day or night-- although I think it was at night.) Yeah it was at night temps started out around 40 then the heavy precip cooled and ended up with 4 IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah it was at night temps started out around 40 then the heavy precip cooled and ended up with 4 IMBY I was thinking around 4 too and it looked really nice on the trees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How do you still remember this storm lol. I don't remember much about it at all except that there was some minor snow event around Valentines Day and the pictures out of Central Park looked pretty good. I don't remember snowfall amounts or what time it occurred (day or night-- although I think it was at night.) I keep records going back 30+ years. There was an event on 2/17/18. 3 to 9" in 6 hours and it all melted the next day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How do you still remember this storm lol. I don't remember much about it at all except that there was some minor snow event around Valentines Day and the pictures out of Central Park looked pretty good. I don't remember snowfall amounts or what time it occurred (day or night-- although I think it was at night.) I think CPK had 5.5 What was crazy was the humidity that month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Major northeastern coast winter storm potential brews on European model Sunday night into Monday as cold air presses south from eastern Canada. WX/PT 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Major northeastern coast winter storm potential brews on European model Sunday night into Monday as cold air presses south from eastern Canada. WX/PT separate thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Completely agree. We scored a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 50 to 70 degree warmth all month. If we can get a moderate event then, why not now. nice night time paste job, right around 3" locally 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The first week of February will start unseasonably mild (40s and perhaps a few days of 50° or above in New York City). However, as some have pointed out, it won't be a "blowtorch." To get much warmer readings (60° or above) during the first half of February, the core of much above normal 500 mb height anomalies should be over the Northeastern U.S. or southern Quebec (accounts for almost 74% of such cases during February 1-15, 1950-2023). Instead, the EPS forecasts the core of the much above normal 500 height anomalies to be anchored in the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. Therefore, the most impressive warmth will likely be focused on the Great Lakes Region, Northern Plains, and central Canada. Below are clusters of outcomes that account for 25 of the 27 (93%) of 60° cases. EPS definitely keeps the east coast closer to normal for the first week of February today. It also had a artic shot Monday into Tuesday of next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't like the pattern, but in the same way you can get skunked in a great pattern, you can also cash in during a crappy one I agree. The pattern is absolutely awful but I guess stranger things have happened. Could very well be the op Euro being too amped, given that the EPS isn’t as aggressive, also the UKMET, which is normally way too amped at this range is well east of the op Euro. The GEFS and GEPS also aren’t that impressive. Wait and see now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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