NCPOW Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, dseagull said: Field Trials. I'll have one of his pups from the 1st pick of his litter this spring, god willing. Passion of mine. I'm outdoors all of the time for work. He keeps me outdoors during winter. Emogi stuff doesn't bother me in and of itself. I just logged on and noticed someone meticulously went back through all of my posts and posted a hot dog on pists over a year old. Funny I guess, but also borderline creepy that someone would take the time to do that over the course of several days, with a given amount per day. I'll drop it. Just irked me. In other news, I'm going to be doing work about 60 miles offshore tomorrow. Looking forward to getting back out for the first time since the last blow. Beautiful GSP. I miss the hell out of mine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: la nina after el nino..... so it follows our pattern of very snowy winters that happen in la ninas that come after el ninos (even when the prior el nino was not snowy). Next winter may be significantly more snowy. We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards. I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 hours ago, qg_omega said: Winter is over bud Something can't be over that hasn't started at the coast. 11 hours ago, Yanksfan said: Don’t worry Ant. I just took one for the team. I’m no longer NutleyBlizzard. We already have a yanksfan! 7 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said: LOL, June, AUG & NOV were below average & SEPT was whopping 0.2 degrees warmer than normal. There's absolutely no sense of objectivity from some of the warm mongers on this site. Genuine question here (bc I'm too tired and lazy to look up the stats). How many below average months has Philly and NYC had respectively in the last 5 years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It is currently sleeting in Larchmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Getting a good dose of sleet here in Westchester. even the road is covered with crunchies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I'd be interested in seeing a graph that shows how many cloudy days we've had relative to normal. It seems like ever since the June wildfire smoke that getting a dry sunny stretch has been next to impossible. Sure hope we can start a new trend with less precip, since snow seems non existent anyway. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said: LOL, June, AUG & NOV were below average & SEPT was whopping 0.2 degrees warmer than normal. There's absolutely no sense of objectivity from some of the warm mongers on this site. Oh wow a few barely below normal months against the warmest 30 year averages vs an infinite number of top 5-10 warmest months over past decade You really got us with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 hours ago, George001 said: We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards. I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be. exactly-- and I say bring it on. Even if it's frontloaded they end up being some of our best winters in history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 Monitoring Sunday 1/28: EPS is the most organized and consistent. It's axis has slipped a little to the south, painting this as an elevations based wet snow of 4+" potential along I84. EPS confidence is 30-45%. However, think we have a small less than 1" accum down to I95 with refreeze of slush Monday morning. NYC prob for 1" is still very low, so no thread but monitoring trends the next day or so. Attached EPS prob for 1" Sunday. It says be cautious about thinking 1" NYC CP. By the way: there was a little sleet mixed with the rain last night in the NYC-LI area. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 hours ago, Rjay said: Something can't be over that hasn't started at the coast. We already have a yanksfan! Genuine question here (bc I'm too tired and lazy to look up the stats). How many below average months has Philly and NYC had respectively in the last 5 years? I dont care that much about below or above avg, let's get more sunny days in here! NASA needs to invent a device to suck up clouds and send them to another planet or to the moon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 hours ago, psv88 said: Everyone gets the weenie emoji. It’s a sign of love…stick around… Except that pheasants have actually vanished from the Poconos because of overhunting. The last time I saw one was back in the 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I guess no one posted the overnight euro for this weekend storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The trend for the weekend storm has hern flatter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I guess no one posted the overnight euro for this weekend storm I guess you missed Walt’s post about the Euro right above this. Still a nothing event for snow in the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I guess you missed Walt’s post about the Euro right above this. Still a nothing event for snow in the NYC metro One eye open Mayne a chance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Oh wow a few barely below normal months against the warmest 30 year averages vs an infinite number of top 5-10 warmest months over past decade You really got us with that one. Yeah, we are similar to BHO which has had 52 top 10 warmest months to only top 10 coldest since 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 56 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The trend for the weekend storm has hern flatter. Airmass is very poor. You'd need a strong dynamic system to pull in colder air. Maybe a rain/snow mix towards the end, no accumulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Not surprised to see models back off the torch for the northeast to start Feb. MJO 6/7 is not warm for us in a Nino for Feb. 7 is actually a colder signal. Still think we average slightly above normal but no 60s & 70s like some thought. Even 50s may be difficult 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not surprised to see models back off the torch for the northeast to start Feb. MJO 6/7 is not warm for us in a Nino for Feb. 7 is actually a colder signal. Still think we average slightly above normal but no 60s & 70s like some thought. Even 50s may be difficult It’s the same pattern we had in December to start February with the warmest departures over the Upper Midwest and Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Monitoring Sunday 1/28: EPS is the most organized and consistent. It's axis has slipped a little to the south, painting this as an elevations based wet snow of 4+" potential along I84. EPS confidence is 30-45%. However, think we have a small less than 1" accum down to I95 with refreeze of slush Monday morning. NYC prob for 1" is still very low, so no thread but monitoring trends the next day or so. Attached EPS prob for 1" Sunday. It says be cautious about thinking 1" NYC CP. By the way: there was a little sleet mixed with the rain last night in the NYC-LI area. Yup I had some sleet when I took the dog out around 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The best chance NYC may have to get to 10” on the season is if we can get over to phase 8 by mid-February. The VP anomaly charts are actually similar to the RMMs. But this is no guarantee if the MJO get can’t get past 7 with so much SST warmth near the Dateline. Plus we made it to 8 last March and the big event occurred in the interior and disappointed the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The best chance NYC may have to get to 10” on the season is if we can get over to phase 8 by mid-February. The VP anomaly charts are actually similar to the RMMs. But this is no guarantee if the MJO get can’t get past 7 with so much SST warmth near the Dateline. Plus we made it to 8 last March and the big event occurred in the interior and disappointed the coast. Real good question, the models are showing it getting in phase 8 President’s Day weekend but is it real or just another false alarm like we’ve seen the past few years? You’re right about the furnace SSTs in phase 7, does it stall out there? We won’t know for sure until we get into February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The interior had a big event in March? I don’t remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The interior had a big event in March? I don’t remember Last year? Yes-Western MA had close to 2 feet-we had white rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Last year? Yes-Western MA had close to 2 feet-we had white rain here When was this? Was this the event we had hours of moderate snow but nothing stuck to the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro keeping us in the 40’s now for Friday bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 56 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yup I had some sleet when I took the dog out around 11pm. Thank you. Moving forward now... I will thread Sunday-Sunday night sometime this evening around 9PM (grandkids). Increasing chances of 1/2-2" NYC-LI and for about 4+ nw NJ-I84 corridor. Not major but 850 low and increasing ne 850 MB Jet by 06z/Monday makes this a favorable outcome. Jut want a look at 12z ENS... no doubt in my mind at least a bit of snow coming to NYC and shovel able WET snow nw NJ-CT with initial melting but surface CAA makes this a candidate for deteriorating untreated pavement conditions Sunday evening -night. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: When was this? Was this the event we had hours of moderate snow but nothing stuck to the ground? yeah it was around March 10th or so. It was 33-34 in most of the area here with white rain or minor accums on the grass-inland and elevated areas got crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: yeah it was around March 10th or so. It was 33-34 in most of the area here with white rain or minor accums on the grass-inland and elevated areas got crushed Gotcha. @bluewave why was is to warm if we were in p8? Just too late in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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