January 2024

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite light rain, clouds, and fog, the temperature surged to near record and record highs today. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 53°
Islip: 57° (old record: 55°, 2010)
New Haven: 59° (old record: 55°, 2010)
New York City-Central Park: 59°
New York City-JFK Airport: 54° (tied record set in 1972)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57° (tied record set in 1967)
Newark: 59° (tied record set in 1972 and tied in 2010)

The frontal boundary will sag southward overnight bringing slightly cooler air to the region to end the week. As a result, the mercury will likely hold in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and Newark tomorrow. Farther south, Philadelphia could see the temperature rise well into the 50s while Washington, DC basks in temperatures in the upper 60s.

This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions.

Another storm will bring additional rain to the region. The rain could end as a period of wet snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -4.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.497 today.

On January 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.586 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.710 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.5° (2.8° above normal).

 

What would the temperatures have been today with a full day of sunshine, Don?

This is the only time of year that Central Park can match Newark for temperature lol.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Islip also set a record at 57 (old record: 55, 2010).

We (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) haven't hit 60 at all in January have we, Don?

 

[Santa Claus]

another nice night for a walk

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) haven't hit 60 at all in January have we, Don?

 

Ewr hit 61 on the 13th and Central Park 60

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) haven't hit 60 at all in January have we, Don?

 

NYC (60), EWR (61), and LGA (60) have all hit 60 this month (January 13th). JFK has not.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

another nice night for a walk

don't get mugged

 

[Santa Claus]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

don't get mugged

 

i am the one who knocks

[SRRTA22]

Out and about and ended up taking hoodie off. Beautiful night before the rain

[psv88]

57 today. Sweet. 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's Winter Futility Rankings (through January 25th):

The 10 worst winters prior to 2023-2024 through January 25th saw the following seasonal outcomes:

Mean seasonal snowfall: 11.0"
Median seasonal snowfall: 12.1"
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 20%
<10" seasonal snowfall: 40%
Highest seasonal snowfall: 22.9", 1971-1972
Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.3", 2022-2023

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's Winter Futility Rankings (through January 25th):

The 10 worst winters prior to 2023-2024 through January 25th saw the following seasonal outcomes:

Mean seasonal snowfall: 11.0"
Median seasonal snowfall: 12.1"
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 20%
<10" seasonal snowfall: 40%
Highest seasonal snowfall: 22.9", 1971-1972
Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.3", 2022-2023

Don I take it that 1972-73 was too cold to make this list although it was the previous record holder for least snowfall in a season?

[bluewave]

On 1/24/2024 at 9:29 AM, batmansascientist said:

I have it at 36 to 1 at Central Park since 2010. 

Would be higher like several regional surrounding sites if the tree growth since the mid 90s didn’t artificially suppress the high temperatures during the warm season. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Would be higher like several regional surrounding sites if the tree growth since the mid 90s didn’t artificially suppress the high temperatures during the warm season. 

in a way tree growth is a really good thing, we need to greenify the city and get rid of this excess concrete (it's good to filter out air pollution too)

 

[EastonSN+]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's Winter Futility Rankings (through January 25th):

The 10 worst winters prior to 2023-2024 through January 25th saw the following seasonal outcomes:

Mean seasonal snowfall: 11.0"
Median seasonal snowfall: 12.1"
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 20%
<10" seasonal snowfall: 40% of
Highest seasonal snowfall: 22.9", 1971-1972
Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.3", 2022-2023

Hi Don,

Looking at some of the worst 5 year runs in terms of snowfall to compare to the last 5 years INCLUDING THIS YEAR in an assumption that CPK is shut out, even if unlikely. I focused on 1928 through 1932 today. Interesting comparison:

1928 through 1932 avg - 11.76

2020 through 2024 avg - 13.18

1933 ended up with 27. Hopefully next year yields the same results.

[Allsnow]

Pain 

 

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

in a way tree growth is a really good thing, we need to greenify the city and get rid of this excess concrete (it's good to filter out air pollution too)

 

You are talking about 2 different things. Sure greening of cities is important for many different reasons. But temperatures aren’t measured directly under trees even at rural weather observing sites. Before the 1990s the weather instruments in Central Park were out in the open. Now they are under mature fully leafed out trees during the warm season. So this has created an artificial high temperature cooling. Had the site been properly maintained, it’s summer highs would be more in line with the surrounding stations like EWR and LGA which it was before the 90s. 

[psv88]

More rain! Excellent!

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are talking about 2 different things. Sure greening of cities is important for many different reasons. But temperatures aren’t measured directly under trees even at rural weather observing sites. Before the 1990s the weather instruments in Central Park were out in the open. Now they are under mature fully leafed out trees during the warm season. So this has created an artificial high temperature cooling. Had the site been properly maintained, it’s summer highs would be more in line with the surrounding stations like EWR and LGA which it was before the 90s. 

Yes, the temperature sensors should be properly located and I never understood why they were moved or whatever change that happened-- the only thing that makes sense is the article that was posted last year about them being worried about the equipment being stolen because it happened before.  Is it about proper maintenance or did they actually relocate the equipment to where they think it's less likely to be stolen?

And I wonder why maintenance would stop-- the Parks Service seems to be lax in its duties?

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hi Don,

Looking at some of the worst 5 year runs in terms of snowfall to compare to the last 5 years INCLUDING THIS YEAR in an assumption that CPK is shut out, even if unlikely. I focused on 1928 through 1932 today. Interesting comparison:

1928 through 1932 avg - 11.76

2020 through 2024 avg - 13.18

1933 ended up with 27. Hopefully next year yields the same results.

how close were the late 80s/early 90s and late 90s/early 00s?

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hi Don,

Looking at some of the worst 5 year runs in terms of snowfall to compare to the last 5 years INCLUDING THIS YEAR in an assumption that CPK is shut out, even if unlikely. I focused on 1928 through 1932 today. Interesting comparison:

1928 through 1932 avg - 11.76

2020 through 2024 avg - 13.18

1933 ended up with 27. Hopefully next year yields the same results.

next year being a la nina after an el nino is probably out best chance to crack the 30" snowfall mark

 

[psv88]

No sun tomorrow now. So no sun until Tuesday now. 
 

this has to be one of the cloudiest winters ever? @donsutherland1

[SACRUS]

 

44 and cloudy with light rain scattered.  All snow gone here, now time for the salt to wash away.  More clouds and then the Sun- mon storm looking mainly rain.  Colder open to Feb with trough into the Northeast and exiting storm pulling colder air in from the N-NE.  Overall warmer than  normal towards 2/4 onwards and perhaps a bit drier for a period.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1950) Highest January recorded temperature
NYC: 72 (1950)
LGA: 72 (1950)

Lows:

EWR: 4 (1994)
NYC:  2 (1871)
LGA:  0 (1994)

 

Historical:

 

1700 - A powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Northwest along the Cascadia Subduction zone. The estimated moment magnitude of 8.7-9.2 caused about a 1,000-kilometer rupture from mid-Vancouver Island to northern California. The ocean floor heaved upward approximately 20 feet, and with 10-20 minutes, a giant wave, 30-40 feet high, reached the shore. The earthquake caused a tsunami, which struck the coast of Japan.

1772 - Possibly the greatest snowfall ever recorded in the Washington DC area started on this day. When the storm began, Thomas Jefferson was returning home from his honeymoon with his new bride, Martha Wayles Skelton. The newlyweds made it to within eight miles of Monticello before having to abandon their carriage in the deep snow. Both finished the ride on horseback in the blinding snow. The newlyweds arrived home late on the night of January 26th. In Jefferson's "Garden Book," he wrote, "the deepest snow we have ever seen. In Albermarle, it was about 3. F. deep."

https://www.masshist.org/thomasjeffersonpapers/doc?id=garden_8&mode=lgImg

 

1937: The wettest month ever in Cincinnati, Ohio, is January 1937, when 13.68 inches fell. Their average January amount is 3.00 inches of precipitation. The overabundance of precipitation over the Ohio River basin caused near-record to record flooding in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. On this day, the river gauge reached 80 feet in Cincinnati, the highest level in the city's history. The Ohio River reached 57 feet in Louisville, Kentucky, on the 27th, setting a new record by ten feet. Seventy percent of the city was underwater at that time. 

1978 - A paralyzing blizzard struck the Midwest. One to three feet of snow fell in Michigan, and 20 to 40 inches was reported across Indiana. Winds reached 70 mph in Michigan, and gusted above 100 mph in Ohio. The high winds produced snow drifts twenty feet high in Michigan and Indiana stranding thousands on the interstate highways. Temperatures in Ohio dropped from the 40s to near zero during the storm. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The California coast was battered by a storm which produced record high tides, thirty-two foot waves, and mudslides, causing millions of dollars damage. The storm then moved east and dumped four feet of snow on Lake Tahoe. (22nd-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A snowstorm in the northeastern U.S. produced 19 inches at Austerlitz NY and Stillwater NY. A storm in the Great Lakes Region left 16.5 inches at Marquette MI, for a total of 43 inches in six days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and high winds created blizzard-like conditions in northwestern Vermont. Winds at Saint Albins gusted to 88 mph. In Alaska, the town of Cold Foot (located north of Fairbanks) reported a morning low of 75 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm spread high winds from the northwestern U.S. to Wyoming and Colorado, with heavy snow in some of the high elevations. Stevens Pass WA received 17 inches of snow, half of which fell in four hours. In extreme northwest Wyoming, Togwotee Mountain Lodge received 24 inches of snow. Winds in Colorado gusted to 90 mph at Rollinsville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

No sun tomorrow now. So no sun until Tuesday now. 
 

this has to be one of the cloudiest winters ever? @donsutherland1

Looks like the 3rd cloudiest January on record at ISP using the 9am observation time.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=9&year=2024&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[psv88]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the 3rd cloudiest January on record at ISP using the 9am observation time.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=9&year=2024&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Thank you. It has been a terrible 9 months for clouds/smoke sky. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.26" of rain for the day yesterday. 0.29" of rain so far today. Current temp 43

[EastonSN+]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how close were the late 80s/early 90s and late 90s/early 00s?

86 through 90, 15.34. Following year 24.9.

97 through 01, 15.90. Following year 3.5.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

86 through 90, 15.34. Following year 24.9.

97 through 01, 15.90. Following year 3.5.

ugh, I think 2001-02 needs to be included in that second stretch.

what's the running average if both 2000-01 and 2001-02 are included?

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thank you. It has been a terrible 9 months for clouds/smoke sky. 

This all started in June, it had to have been one of the cloudiest falls on record too

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1950) Highest January recorded temperature
NYC: 72 (1950)
LGA: 72 (1950)

Lows:

EWR: 4 (1994)
NYC:  2 (1871)
LGA:  0 (1994)

 

Historical:

 

1700 - A powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Northwest along the Cascadia Subduction zone. The estimated moment magnitude of 8.7-9.2 caused about a 1,000-kilometer rupture from mid-Vancouver Island to northern California. The ocean floor heaved upward approximately 20 feet, and with 10-20 minutes, a giant wave, 30-40 feet high, reached the shore. The earthquake caused a tsunami, which struck the coast of Japan.

1772 - Possibly the greatest snowfall ever recorded in the Washington DC area started on this day. When the storm began, Thomas Jefferson was returning home from his honeymoon with his new bride, Martha Wayles Skelton. The newlyweds made it to within eight miles of Monticello before having to abandon their carriage in the deep snow. Both finished the ride on horseback in the blinding snow. The newlyweds arrived home late on the night of January 26th. In Jefferson's "Garden Book," he wrote, "the deepest snow we have ever seen. In Albermarle, it was about 3. F. deep."

https://www.masshist.org/thomasjeffersonpapers/doc?id=garden_8&mode=lgImg

 

1937: The wettest month ever in Cincinnati, Ohio, is January 1937, when 13.68 inches fell. Their average January amount is 3.00 inches of precipitation. The overabundance of precipitation over the Ohio River basin caused near-record to record flooding in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. On this day, the river gauge reached 80 feet in Cincinnati, the highest level in the city's history. The Ohio River reached 57 feet in Louisville, Kentucky, on the 27th, setting a new record by ten feet. Seventy percent of the city was underwater at that time. 

1978 - A paralyzing blizzard struck the Midwest. One to three feet of snow fell in Michigan, and 20 to 40 inches was reported across Indiana. Winds reached 70 mph in Michigan, and gusted above 100 mph in Ohio. The high winds produced snow drifts twenty feet high in Michigan and Indiana stranding thousands on the interstate highways. Temperatures in Ohio dropped from the 40s to near zero during the storm. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The California coast was battered by a storm which produced record high tides, thirty-two foot waves, and mudslides, causing millions of dollars damage. The storm then moved east and dumped four feet of snow on Lake Tahoe. (22nd-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A snowstorm in the northeastern U.S. produced 19 inches at Austerlitz NY and Stillwater NY. A storm in the Great Lakes Region left 16.5 inches at Marquette MI, for a total of 43 inches in six days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and high winds created blizzard-like conditions in northwestern Vermont. Winds at Saint Albins gusted to 88 mph. In Alaska, the town of Cold Foot (located north of Fairbanks) reported a morning low of 75 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm spread high winds from the northwestern U.S. to Wyoming and Colorado, with heavy snow in some of the high elevations. Stevens Pass WA received 17 inches of snow, half of which fell in four hours. In extreme northwest Wyoming, Togwotee Mountain Lodge received 24 inches of snow. Winds in Colorado gusted to 90 mph at Rollinsville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

This is wild-- how much snow up here in this?