gravitylover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: yeah it was around March 10th or so. It was 33-34 in most of the area here with white rain or minor accums on the grass-inland and elevated areas got crushed I dunno about crushed but it was the only storm that gave me more than 6" last year, I think I got 9". blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Oh wow a few barely below normal months against the warmest 30 year averages vs an infinite number of top 5-10 warmest months over past decade You really got us with that one. This is the warmest winter on record nationally Dec 1 to date (total HDD). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 hours ago, NCPOW said: Beautiful GSP. I miss the hell out of mine. I'm a poodle guy myself. Don't laugh; they are the smartest dogs out there and you will forget you are dealing with a dog, that's how uncanny they are. "Poodle" means puddle in German; they were bred to retrieve birds from water, hence the funky haircuts. Neighbor had two magnificent long hair German Shephards, they were always getting out and drinking from my koi ( well now just goldfish; got tired of feeding the herons expensive fish ) pond. They'd knock you down and lick you to death. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 53 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Real good question, the models are showing it getting in phase 8 President’s Day weekend but is it real or just another false alarm like we’ve seen the past few years? You’re right about the furnace SSTs in phase 7, does it stall out there? We won’t know for sure until we get into February The VP signal for the MJO was and is a clear P-8-1 in Dec and it failed to produce expected results for reason's we've outlined in this forum in the past. A question I'm asking myself is whether the SPV/TPV decoupling actually allows wave breaking to do it's thing via jet retraction mid month. Think it's possible, but not yet totally sold on it. I still don't think we should be using wheeler plots as any sort of predictive basis for snow forecasting in this region... Your Hovmoller diagrams get you a much cleaner and disaggregated picture of the things that you would consider to matter from the tropical forcing perspective anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 hours ago, George001 said: We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards. I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be. I just remember 2007 La Nina being one deluge after another and maybe two sleet events in Feb. Sucked. It has sucked for a couple years now, though. Hope we can at least get a sleetfest going one more time before spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 39/39 /cloudy and light scattered showers. To the low 40s today with more light rain, Thu near or low 50s and same Friday. May touch upper 50s in some spots Sat. Colder by Sunday as storms pulls through perhaps a mix for a brief period before more rain. Storm allows trough into the northeast with a 2 day colder 1/29 - 1/31. Feb overall warmer but trough near by or off the northeast coast with strong ridge into the MW/GL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Olr maps do have convection getting into 8 but this can change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Olr maps do have convection getting into 8 but this can change VP200, 850 u-wind and OLR all show convection and the expected forcing response eastward with a progressive MJO signal. There really isn't much debate here as to the progressive nature of tropical forcing. There is a lot of debate on whether this parlays into cold in the windows it's supposed to for early-mid Feb. IO convection is shut off for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, NittanyWx said: VP200, 850 u-wind and OLR all show convection and the expected forcing response eastward with a progressive MJO signal. There really isn't much debate here as to the progressive nature of tropical forcing. There is a lot of debate on whether this parlays into cold in the windows it's supposed to for early-mid Feb. IO convection is shut off for the time being. @bluewave said the warmth in 7 might keep the wave there longer. Last year we didn’t make 8 until March and it was to late for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The first week of February will start unseasonably mild (40s and perhaps a few days of 50° or above in New York City). However, as some have pointed out, it won't be a "blowtorch." To get much warmer readings (60° or above) during the first half of February, the core of much above normal 500 mb height anomalies should be over the Northeastern U.S. or southern Quebec (accounts for almost 74% of such cases during February 1-15, 1950-2023). Instead, the EPS forecasts the core of the much above normal 500 height anomalies to be anchored in the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. Therefore, the most impressive warmth will likely be focused on the Great Lakes Region, Northern Plains, and central Canada. Below are clusters of outcomes that account for 25 of the 27 (93%) of 60° cases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Records: Highs: EWR: 68 (1967) NYC: 68 (1967) LGA: 68 (1967) Lows: EWR: 2 (1936) NYC: -6 (1882) LGA: 3 (1963) Historical: 1916 - The temperature at Browning MT plunged 100 degrees in just 24 hours, from 44 degrees above zero to 56 degrees below zero. It was a record 24 hour temperature drop for the U.S. (Weather Channel) (National Severe Storms Forecast Center) 1935 - Snowstorms hit the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest producing record 24 hour snowfall totals of 23 inches at Portland ME and 52 inches at Winthrop MA. (David Ludlum) 1940: A record-breaking 19.9 inches of snow fell in Richmond, Virginia, on this day. The storm, which began on the 23rd, produced 21.6 inches of snow for the Richmond area. The headline in the Richmond Times-Dispatch was "Blizzard Sweeps State, Bringing Deep Snow; Public Schools Closed." 1956 - Thirty-eight inches of rain deluged the Kilauea Sugar Plantation of Hawaii in 24 hours, including twelve inches in just one hour. (David Ludlum) 1963 - A great arctic outbreak reached the southern U.S. The cold wave broke many records for duration of cold weather along the Gulf Coast. A reading of 15 degrees below zero at Nashville TN was an all-time record low for that location. (David Ludlum) 1967: A tornado outbreak across the Central U.S. was the furthest north ever recorded in the winter up to that time. Severe weather occurred across a good portion of the southeast and east-central Iowa. Two-inch hail fell at Armstrong, and over two dozen tornadoes were reported. Five miles north of Fort Madison, one fatality occurred from a tornado, along with six injuries. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 216 in St. Louis County, Missouri. Storms also affected parts of northern and central Illinois. One strong tornado in Mason County killed one person and injured three others. Another tornado moved across the Champaign-Urbana metropolitan area, injuring five people. Other strong tornadoes were reported across Carroll County in Mt. Carroll, where 12 people were injured, and near Gladstone in Henderson County. Funnel clouds were reported across the southwest section of Chicago, IL. Iowa had never recorded a tornado in January before this outbreak. 32 total tornadoes occurred, 14 of them in Iowa. Nine twisters occurred in Missouri, 8 in Illinois, and 1 in Wisconsin. 1982 - Chinook winds plagued the foothills of southeastern Wyoming and northern and central Colorado for the second straight Sunday. The winds gusted to 140 mph at Wondervu CO, located northeast of Denver. Chinook winds a week earlier produced wind gusts to 137 mph. (Storm Data) 1987 - Temperatures in Minnesota plunged far below the zero mark. International Falls MN reported a morning low of 35 degrees below zero, and Warroad MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 45 below zero. A storm developing in northeastern Texas produced severe thunderstorms with large hail in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Camden AR reported golf ball size hail. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A blizzard rapidly developed in the north central U.S. In just one hour weather conditions in eastern North Dakota switched from sunny skies, light winds and temperature readings in the 20s, to rapidly falling temperatures and near zero visibility in snow and blowing snow. High winds in Wyoming, gusting to 72 mph at Gillette, produced snow drifts sixteen feet high. Northwestern Iowa experienced its second blizzard in just 24 hours. High winds in Iowa produced wind chill readings as cold as 65 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the Rockies and the Northern High Plains Region. Hettinger ND received 12 inches of snow. Wolf Creek Pass CO was blanketed with 16 inches of snow in just 24 hours. Severe cold prevailed across Alaska. Between the 24th and the 29th of January, a total of thirty stations in the state report all-time record low temperatures. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A deep low pressure system brought high winds and heavy snow to the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska. Winds gusting to 82 mph at Shemya reduced the visibility to near zero in blowing snow. Rain and gale force winds lashed the northern Pacific coast. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains over the central Gulf coast states. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmansascientist Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we are similar to BHO which has had 52 top 10 warmest months to only top 10 coldest since 2010. I have it at 36 to 1 at Central Park since 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: This is the warmest winter on record nationally Dec 1 to date (total HDD). and the wettest too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave said the warmth in 7 might keep the wave there longer. Last year we didn’t make 8 until March and it was to late for the coast Let me try to explain this a second time, becuase I'm not sure you're understanding what I'm saying. Those hovmoller charts are showing a +OLR anomaly in the phase 7 region for the 11-15 day window in response to an eastward propagation of the main negative VP200 anomaly. In laymans terms, the EC Ens today is showing progression. Now, the model is also trying to add some -VP anom noise late 11-15 day in those west/cpac regions too. But at a window where it's RMSE MJO forecast performance has been...not great. We've already had phase 8 physical forcing responses this year, the signal just wasn't particularly strong. That wasn't the case for phase 1/3 response, where we had a very nice and clean forcing for end December and early Jan...certainly that was shown at the VP200 level. Isolating out OLR: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Boston can sometimes score big in the kind of pattern that is forecast. The biggest example is the February 8-9, 2015 storm. Boston picked up 22.2" of snow. New York City recorded a trace. If any of the major I-95 cities (Richmond to Boston) has a reasonable chance at seeing 4" or more of snow, Boston is that city. That's not a guarantee, but the probability is far greater than for the other major I-95 cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave said the warmth in 7 might keep the wave there longer. Last year we didn’t make 8 until March and it was to late for the coast I am hoping the forcing can finally shift east of the Dateline by mid-February like the models show but no guarantees this far out in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I guess no one is tracking this weekends event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I guess no one is tracking this weekends event No, congrats NNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am hoping the forcing can finally shift east of the Dateline by mid-February like the models show but no guarantees this far out in time. Hopefully…it would be nice to get one solid 4-6 inch event before winter is over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Allsnow said: No, congrats NNE I guess you aren't following the models. That's alright. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Faster transfer compared to 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: I guess you aren't following the models. That's alright. I hope you're right, but until the meh is proven wrong, you have to ride the hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ukie is also nice The Positive PNA might help us out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, North and West said: I hope you're right, but until the meh is proven wrong, you have to ride the hot hand. Of course but there is a clear trend. I'm going to keep tracking this on other subforums and forums . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I guess you aren't following the models. That's alright. white rain yippee 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Congrats LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: white rain yippee Another troll Is there a point of posting on here anything weather related ? Enjoy yourselves 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now