January 2024

[MJO812]

  On 1/20/2024 at 8:33 PM, qg_omega said:

Winter is over

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Troll

[sussexcountyobs]

Current obs at 8:20 pm

Light snow/snow showers

12°

[WestBabylonWeather]

Looks like the Hamptons are under a moderate snow shower 

[NorthShoreWx]

  On 1/21/2024 at 2:03 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

Looks like the Hamptons are under a moderate snow shower 

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Looked pretty heavy on the Sagaponack web cam a while back.

[donsutherland1]

A genuine "kiss of death" for snowfall pattern for January and February would be the combination of an AO of +1.000 or above and EPO of +1.000 or above. Such a pattern yields much below climatological frequency of measurable snowfall in New York City. The largest snowfall among the 344 dates that met those criteria was just 2.0". So far, the guidance does not show more than a few such days. Therefore, even as the forecast pattern for the closing 7-10 days of January is not a good one, it could be worse.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

  On 1/21/2024 at 2:33 AM, donsutherland1 said:

A genuine "kiss of death" for snowfall pattern for January and February would be the combination of an AO of +1.000 or above and EPO of +1.000 or above. Such a pattern yields much below climatological frequency of measurable snowfall in New York City. The largest snowfall among the 344 dates that met those criteria was just 2.0". So far, the guidance does not show more than a few such days. Therefore, even as the forecast pattern for the closing 7-10 days of January is not a good one, it could be worse.

 

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[Ji]

  On 1/20/2024 at 10:22 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Following another night in the teens in New York City and some single-digits outside of New York City and Newark, tomorrow will be fair and cold. Readings will approach or reach freezing in parts of the region.
Afterward, the development of an EPO+/AO+ pattern will lead to a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The expected monthly warm anomaly has increased in recent days as the development of this pattern has grown increasingly likely. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked.
The SOI was +15.13 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.568 today. That is the first positive reading this month. Should the AO remain positive for the remainder of this month as is indicated on the guidance, it will have been negative on 58% of days during December and January. That is consistent with historic experience. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.
On January 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.993 (RMM). The January 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.729 (RMM).
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.2° (2.5° above normal).
 

How does the Nov AO correlate with February Don

[donsutherland1]

  On 1/21/2024 at 3:35 AM, Ji said:

How does the Nov AO correlate with February Don

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It’s a much weaker signal than for December and January. So far, the Washington, DC area has had some snowfall. Hopefully, after the upcoming pause, there will be some bigger storms.

[WestBabylonWeather]

  On 1/21/2024 at 3:47 AM, donsutherland1 said:

It’s a much weaker signal than for December and January. So far, the Washington, DC area has had some snowfall. Hopefully, after the upcoming pause, there will be some bigger storms.

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Winter is not over as some would say 

[donsutherland1]

  On 1/21/2024 at 5:14 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

Winter is not over as some would say 

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I agree. That’s why I termed it a pause.

[SnoSki14]

Significant PNA spike to end January prior to a warmer pattern.

I could see a storm there. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Whatever happens from this point on, I’m grateful for the week of actual winter we had. Cool to cold, two separate mild snowfall events within a few days, and I’ve actually retained much of what fell going back to Tuesday. In a warm winter, this is pretty great. 

I agree with Justin that if you’re a turbo weenie and need more, take a trip north. My wife and I are going to Vermont or NH for my birthday in mid Feb. We’re going on a hiking / snow shoeing trip (and no matter where we go we’re definitely stopping by The Alchemist brewery, that’s been on my bucket list for ages!) and just want to get up into the mountains and into some deep snow. Really looking forward to it!

We’ve just been so damn unlucky the past two years it’s hard to be surprised by the fact that we’re staring down yet another warm and highly unfavorable period. All we can do is hope for some chances, a bit of luck, and that we’ll catch at least one more favorable period before winter’s end. 

At the very least the winter hasn’t been a complete shutout in the vein of last season. We’ll see where things go from here. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/21/2024 at 2:33 AM, donsutherland1 said:

A genuine "kiss of death" for snowfall pattern for January and February would be the combination of an AO of +1.000 or above and EPO of +1.000 or above. Such a pattern yields much below climatological frequency of measurable snowfall in New York City. The largest snowfall among the 344 dates that met those criteria was just 2.0". So far, the guidance does not show more than a few such days. Therefore, even as the forecast pattern for the closing 7-10 days of January is not a good one, it could be worse.

 

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Don, do you have a short list of winters that had that kind of bad pattern the most?

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/21/2024 at 2:07 AM, NorthShoreWx said:

Looked pretty heavy on the Sagaponack web cam a while back.

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OES, Ed?

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/20/2024 at 9:45 PM, MJO812 said:

So we never saw snow with a everything positive?

Got it 

I guess we can all log off and come back in mid February .

I will continue to track the end of the month possible storm with others who are interested. 

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You should change your name to Stormtracker Ant.

Seriously, ever since you became MJO812 we have not had MJO 8,1, OR 2 for more than a very brief period.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

  On 1/21/2024 at 11:17 AM, LibertyBell said:

You should change your name to Stormtracker Ant.

Seriously, ever since you became MJO812 we have not had MJO 8,1, OR 2 for more than a very brief period.

 

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@40/70 Benchmark’s suggestion to change his name to MJO456 was legendarily funny. It still cracks me up. 

Poor guy, he needs a proper damn storm (as do we all!). 

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/20/2024 at 10:57 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Season to date 

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lol a little east of here has had even less snowfall (2") than we have (3").... any idea what that station is with 2" of snow? Farmingdale?

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/20/2024 at 11:46 PM, uofmiami said:

 

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This is going to miss us too lol

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/21/2024 at 12:04 AM, gravitylover said:

Winter is over  

 

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Gravity is over! LMAO

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/21/2024 at 11:19 AM, Volcanic Winter said:

@40/70 Benchmark’s suggestion to change his name to MJO456 was legendarily funny. It still cracks me up. 

Poor guy, he needs a proper damn storm (as do we all!). 

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Haha I love that too.  Whatever he changes it to, the opposite will happen lol.

Maybe he should change it to Snowhater456 lol

 

[Volcanic Winter]

This week has averaged 24.1 degrees for me, so a very wintry week. January MTD is 33.3, no doubt dragged down by this very cool week. 

Last January the month averaged 41.5 for me. 

[wdrag]

NYC nearby interior suburbs. Tuesday night: small chance of icing from a bit of sleet or rain refreezing on frozen ground. Ensemble ice graphic added. Noting the EPS has the freezing rain as well. 

Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. Vast uncertainty on when-what. While not favored for snow in NYC, I think there is a chance for a half inch of snow at CP as a start.  Pattern somewhat similar to that of Friday but without cold air in advance, so this will have to be with the departing mid Atlantic coastal low.  No attendant graphics at this time and no thread since I think the risk for light to moderate extensive event from BWI-ALB-BOS is inland from I95. I've seen yesterdays comments-stats on unlikely and we'll leave it at no chance snowstorm NYC but I do think a wintry event is coming, at least to our interior Sunday night or Monday. 

I add several graphics: One is the chance of ice Tuesday night. (maybe a better chance of ice pellets-snow flurries at the start in NYC than any ice?).  

And Tomer Burgs excellent graphics on the so called snow hole.  I'm on another group that discusses science. Snow holes are probably random.  DC-BWI-PHl are getting snow in this pattern and yet we may miss the rest of the winter but each event has its own set of difficulty.  RANDOM on the NYC snow hole-probably--just not enough stats on these snow holes. Another snowhole is apparently ongoing in MN.  

I'm pretty sure some on here were disbelieving the potential with Fridays event(verification graphics on the 19th thread) and NO was a right call for NYC and probably again this period of 1/28-31, but I think it worth  monitoring. I'm pretty sure something wintry happens in NYC 28-31. No thread from me on this yet.  Additionally ensemble modeling continues pretty good qpf here the rest of month 1.5-2", the big 4+ flooding stuff in the Gulf Coast states. 

FWIW: 19" here in Wantage in January and more coming in January, DC-BWI-PHL-ABE-BOS roughly 8-10".  BDL ~13".    

[Volcanic Winter]

  On 1/21/2024 at 11:57 AM, wdrag said:

NYC nearby interior suburbs. Tuesday night: small chance of icing from a bit of sleet or rain refreezing on frozen ground. Ensemble ice graphic added. Noting the EPS has the freezing rain as well. 

Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. Vast uncertainty on when-what. While not favored for snow in NYC, I think there is a chance for a half inch of snow at CP as a start.  Pattern somewhat similar to that of Friday but without cold air in advance, so this will have to be with the departing mid Atlantic coastal low.  No attendant graphics at this time and no thread since I think the risk for light to moderate extensive event from BWI-ALB-BOS is inland from I95. I've seen yesterdays comments-stats on unlikely and we'll leave it at no chance snowstorm NYC but I do think a wintry event is coming, at least to our interior Sunday night or Monday. 

I add several graphics: One is the chance of ice Tuesday night. (maybe a better chance of ice pellets-snow flurries at the start in NYC than any ice?).  

And Tomer Burgs excellent graphics on the so called snow hole.  I'm on another group that discusses science. Snow holes are random.  DC-BWI-PHl are getting snow in this pattern and yet we may miss the rest of the winter but each event has its own set of difficulty.  RANDOM on the NYC snow hole-probably--just not enough stats on these snow holes. Another is apparently ongoing in MN.  

I'm pretty sure some on here were disbelieving the potential with Fifdays event and NO was right for NYC and probably again this period of 1/28-31, but I think it worth  monitoring. I'm pretty sure something wintry happens in NYC 28-31. No thread from me on this yet.  Additionally ensemble modeling continues pretty good qpf here the rest of month 1.5-2", the big 4+ flooding stuff in the Gulf Coast states. 

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Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

[wdrag]

  On 1/21/2024 at 12:02 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

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Fingers crossed--just added some climo #s for the megalopolis. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/21/2024 at 11:17 AM, LibertyBell said:

You should change your name to Stormtracker Ant.

Seriously, ever since you became MJO812 we have not had MJO 8,1, OR 2 for more than a very brief period.

 

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I can't change my name anymore 

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/21/2024 at 12:02 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

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this is the result of the oceans warming the most.

so the outcome of all this is more humid summers, milder winters at the coast and more rainfall all year round

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 1/21/2024 at 12:02 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

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Looking closely on this map I found someone who got even less than we did in our area haha.

Okay, so I'm under the 2-3 inch band.

NW Brooklyn is under the 1-2 inch band.

My other house in PA is doing a lot better, it's at 16-20 inches and the highway which we use to get there is at 20-24 and just a little north of there (which I assume is Mt Pocono) is at 24-30 inches on the season.... if you go north of there the amounts drop off again.

One thing I dont understand is..... days since 2" snowfall, how is it that central Queens is in the yellow (less than 5 days) while both west and east of there (including the north shore of Nassau County) it's 600-800 days?

 

[EastonSN+]

  On 1/21/2024 at 12:02 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

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It has more to do with track than warmth. The last storm was cold enough everywhere, however it stayed south.

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead numbers: Mild with perhaps a strong shot of warmth and wet.

[EastonSN+]

  On 1/21/2024 at 12:58 PM, LibertyBell said:

this is the result of the oceans warming the most.

so the outcome of all this is more humid summers, milder winters at the coast and more rainfall all year round

 

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We would have been in the purple too, like central Jersey, if the last storm gained latitude.

Track hurt us.