January 2024

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Yes agree that on the very first one it was due to the UHI effect. But the last two was a combo of UHI and track which is why even areas 30 miles north and west didn't cash in. 

anything north of cross county pkwy did very well. didnt have to get 30 miles north. More like 10-15 with some elevation. there are lots of factors, but the extreme warmth being held on in the concrete is an issue.

[North and West]

Extensive studies have shown little benefit to organic foods, and a lot of them really aren't organic. I learned this in fisheries; a lot of the stuff for sale in markets is not what the label says it is. Recently I have seen porgies labeled Dorado, farm raised hybrid bass labeled wild striped bass ( illegal in NJ ) and tilapia labeled as flounder. And one reason you'll see " wild caught" is because that just means it was caught in a net; it could be a farmed salmon that's escaped. No one knows unless they break out a DNA test. So just eat what looks good in moderation and don't worry about it. Avoid smoking ( everything including pot, which is not, as some believe, some miracle health elixir; clear studies show long term cognitive decline with use ) and alcohol. But if you want to smoke and drink, have at it. Whatever gets you through the day. within reason, is my philosophy. We're all headed to the same conclusion.

.

[donsutherland1]

Today, the Arctic Oscillation rose to positive levels for the first time this month. That is the first piece of what is forecast to become an AO+/EPO+ pattern. Such patterns consistent with the forecast (AO: +1.000 or above/EPO: 0.000 to +2.000) support below normal frequency of measurable snow events during the second half of January.

Based on the guidance (temperature anomalies and forecast pattern), New York City will likely see little or no snowfall for the remainder of this month.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, the Arctic Oscillation rose to positive levels for the first time this month. That is the first piece of what is forecast to become an AO+/EPO+ pattern. Such patterns consistent with the forecast (AO: +1.000 or above/EPO: 0.000 to +2.000) support below normal frequency of measurable snow events during the second half of January.

Based on the guidance (temperature anomalies and forecast pattern), New York City will likely see little or no snowfall for the remainder of this month.

PNA is rising . Good chance we might see some snow.

We have had bad luck with a negative AO and NAO.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PNA is rising . Good chance we might see some snow.

We have had bad luck with a negative AO and NAO.

Some snow is certainly plausible. The kind of snowfall shown on the 6z GFS (and retracted on the following 12z run) is not. Unfortunately, no measurable snowfall is also a possible outcome (above climatological probability). The PNA+ should blunt the magnitude of warmth, but overall, the remainder of the January should be warmer than normal.

As for the AO-/NAO-, all of NYC's measurable snowfall has occurred with the AO- and almost all of its measurable snowfall has occurred with the NAO-. The PNA- limited opportunities for a big snowfall. The kind of AO+/EPO+ pattern that is forecast is not a snowy one, even when the PNA is positive.

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PNA is rising . Good chance we might see some snow.

We have had bad luck with a negative AO and NAO.

Best of luck getting an east coast snowstorm with that disaster of a pattern the end of the month. It’s going to take a lot more than a temporary positive PNA to unf*** that cluster

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 25. A bit higher than expected

[binbisso]

I'm a little confused. We never had measurable snow in late january with a positive ao and a positive n a o

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I'm a little confused. We never had measurable snow in late january with a positive ao and a positive n a o

We've had measurable snow. The percentage of days with measurable snow with an AO+/NAO+ is lower than it is when the AO and NAO are negative. The chart I posted had specific ranges of teleconnections (AO: +1.000 or above; EPO: 0.000 to +2.000) as forecast on the EPS and GEFS. NYC has not seen a greater than 3" snowstorm during the second half of January with that pattern. It had measurable snowfall on almost 12% of such days (little lower than climatology).

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some snow is certainly plausible. The kind of snowfall shown on the 6z GFS (and retracted on the following 12z run) is not. Unfortunately, no measurable snowfall is also a possible outcome (above climatological probability). The PNA+ should blunt the magnitude of warmth, but overall, the remainder of the January should be warmer than normal.

As for the AO-/NAO-, all of NYC's measurable snowfall has occurred with the AO- and almost all of its measurable snowfall has occurred with the NAO-. The PNA- limited opportunities for a big snowfall. The kind of AO+/EPO+ pattern that is forecast is not a snowy one, even when the PNA is positive.

Where do we start on how hostile the end of the month looks for a snowstorm here? 
 

AO positive, NAO positive, EPO positive as can be with a huge low over Alaska, WPO positive, MJO in bad phases….the only “plus” is the temporary positive PNA, no arctic cold and you have a juiced PAC jet extension into the west coast which is going to make the flow extremely progressive and deamplify the PNA in short order. Yea, that is not screaming big snowstorm here to me

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

People are torn on the organic thing. But why eat pesticide if you have the option for organic. 

applying pesticide to your clothes is not the same thing as eating it lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Extensive studies have shown little benefit to organic foods, and a lot of them really aren't organic. I learned this in fisheries; a lot of the stuff for sale in markets is not what the label says it is. Recently I have seen porgies labeled Dorado, farm raised hybrid bass labeled wild striped bass ( illegal in NJ ) and tilapia labeled as flounder. And one reason you'll see " wild caught" is because that just means it was caught in a net; it could be a farmed salmon that's escaped. No one knows unless they break out a DNA test. So just eat what looks good in moderation and don't worry about it. Avoid smoking ( everything including pot, which is not, as some believe, some miracle health elixir; clear studies show long term cognitive decline with use ) and alcohol. But if you want to smoke and drink, have at it. Whatever gets you through the day. within reason, is my philosophy. We're all headed to the same conclusion.

the benefit to USDA organic (which is certified) is that it "should" not have pesticides in it.  Unfortunately our regulatory agencies are captured, and many of the pesticides this backwards country still allows are banned in all other developed nations.  The UN panel of scientists has clearly stated that pesticides are not needed on produce and should not be used anymore-- they are linked to everything from the current mass extinction of pollinators to major health issues in humans and other animals.  

There have been studies done showing that pesticides are present in the blood and urine of people who consume conventional food and none in those who consume food that is certified not to contain those pesticides.

this only applies to pesticides of course, I don't know what the benefit would be regarding fish, if any.

we've detected pesticides in our blood stream and they've been proven to cause brain development issues in children including autism and adhd.  I try to grow my own food whenever possible, as removing pesticides from food is a tedious process that involves soaking in vinegar for 15 min and washing with soap and water both before and after that

 

it's also good to avoid factory farmed meat, because 1) it's immoral and 2) it's unhealthy.  that's why I only eat free range, no antibiotics and the animals weren't tortured in producing it.

[Eduardo]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PNA is rising . Good chance we might see some snow.

We have had bad luck with a negative AO and NAO.

Mmmm I’d say go outside and bask in the winter feel today.  Might be awhile before we experience it again, unfortunately .

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Lyme damages the brain and cases often go undiagnosed. It can cause dementia; Kris Kristofferson was diagnosed with dementia and it turned out to be Lyme after a long investigation; not sure how reversible that is, especially in the elderly. Some of the sunscreens cause issues as well, but melanoma is worse. Risk benefit....if you can avoid the ticks great, but that is getting hard to do. My dogs bring them in and I get them in the park right in the concrete jungle. I mean the microfibers in our clothes are also suspect, especially anything water repellent. It's pretty hard to avoid toxins, many of us have PFAS in our drinking water. You can use bottled but who knows what's in it right? And I'm not even going to get into air particulates and microplastics....

at a minimum our EPA should be doing its job and banning pesticides that are banned in other countries, but instead we need class action lawsuits to stop these corrupt companies.  I am glad the Michael J Fox Foundation is now suing the EPA to put an end to their influence by the chemical lobby.

Read this

 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Eduardo said:

Mmmm I’d say go outside and bask in the winter feel today.  Might be awhile before we experience it again, unfortunately .

Yup. Going to take weeks to get North America cold again after the pac jet ext. 

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Made it to 25. A bit higher than expected

Congrats 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Lyme damages the brain and cases often go undiagnosed. It can cause dementia; Kris Kristofferson was diagnosed with dementia and it turned out to be Lyme after a long investigation; not sure how reversible that is, especially in the elderly. Some of the sunscreens cause issues as well, but melanoma is worse. Risk benefit....if you can avoid the ticks great, but that is getting hard to do. My dogs bring them in and I get them in the park right in the concrete jungle. I mean the microfibers in our clothes are also suspect, especially anything water repellent. It's pretty hard to avoid toxins, many of us have PFAS in our drinking water. You can use bottled but who knows what's in it right? And I'm not even going to get into air particulates and microplastics....

for water, dont drink out of a plastic bottle, I use a six stage filter system.  the filter does need to be changed out every year, but that's a small price to pay.

 

[LoboLeader1]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Best of luck getting an east coast snowstorm with that disaster of a pattern the end of the month. It’s going to take a lot more than a temporary positive PNA to unf*** that cluster

Would not be surprised if we no snow in the first 2 weeks of February, given the strong El Nino.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Going to take weeks to get North America cold again after the pac jet ext. 

If we don’t see a very big improvement to an actual good pattern by 2/7 or at least one which is definitely imminent and sustainable (not long range model fantasy) we are probably done. If you look back on past events, strong El Niño March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal, especially early-mid March. Eric Webb’s chart showed this very strong tendency of past events. By late March, we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day

[Allsnow]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If we don’t see a very big improvement to an actual good pattern by 2/7 or at least one which is definitely imminent and sustainable (not long range model fantasy) we are probably done. If you look back on past events, strong El Niño March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal, especially early-mid March. Eric Webb’s chart showed this very strong tendency of past events. By late March, we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day

Webb was also calling for a big backloaded Nino winter…

 

on life support 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Webb was also calling for a big backloaded Nino winter…

 

on life support 

It's looking bleak now but we can still have a backloaded winter

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we don’t see a very big improvement to an actual good pattern by 2/7 or at least one which is definitely imminent and sustainable (not long range model fantasy) we are probably done. If you look back on past events, strong El Niño March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal, especially early-mid March. Eric Webb’s chart showed this very strong tendency of past events. By late March, we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day

We know you are happy about this . 

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We know you are happy about this . 

Come on, can you take this seriously?..With 2 months of winter left, we are done?..He comes here to annoy people like you Ant.It will snow again in the next few months..could get a biggie, that's nino climo especially February.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, WX-PA said:

Come on, can you take this seriously?..With 2 months of winter left, we are done?..He comes here to annoy people like you Ant.It will snow again in the next few months..could get a biggie, that's nino climo especially February.

Did you actually read my post? On 2/7, there isn’t 2 months of winter left. Smh

[Allsnow]

Not a snow look 

[WX-PA]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Did you actually read my post? On 2/7, there isn’t 2 months of winter left. Smh

So if on 2/7 there is nothing, doesn't  mean that on 2/22 it can't snow? right?..It can even snow in a crappy pattern in February.

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Webb was also calling for a big backloaded Nino winter…

 

on life support 

I'm not sure. I actually think models could waffle quite rapidly over next few days. MJO wreaking havoc at the moment. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure. I actually think models could waffle quite rapidly over next few days. MJO wreaking havoc at the moment. 

We done…

@bluewave you still think p8 at some point on February? 
 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

PNA is rising . Good chance we might see some snow.

We have had bad luck with a negative AO and NAO.

Anthony I admire your spunk and I hope you are correct 

[SnowGoose69]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we don’t see a very big improvement to an actual good pattern by 2/7 or at least one which is definitely imminent and sustainable (not long range model fantasy) we are probably done. If you look back on past events, strong El Niño March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal, especially early-mid March. Eric Webb’s chart showed this very strong tendency of past events. By late March, we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day

I do not think its flipping by then...that said I am not highly confident right now outside of the belief that probably 2/1-2/7 or so is the worst stretch...I am not sure about there being a -PNA like ensembles sorta show since the ensemble charts show it being positive...it could just be a beatdown of the ridge due to the jet which is being displayed as a -PNA look on the anomaly height charts.