gravitylover Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: You're a bright guy, I'm sure you have some ideas on how to pump the heat out of the oceans, even if we have to spend trillions of dollars to do it, in the long term, it would be worth it. Dude, you could use space lasers to saw off the Ross ice shelf then tow it to the west Pacific. As it melts it'll cool the water! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milleand Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Is something brewing for Tuesday 1/23-wedneday 1/24?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, milleand said: Is something brewing for Tuesday 1/23-wedneday 1/24?! Coffee 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i do like seeing these HP continuously getting ejected into S Canada. two 1040-50mb HPs is nothing to sneeze at. can give us a chance at a WAA event even with a crap longwave pattern. the HP make sense given the ridge over AK What a massive Bermuda high for late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The typical El Niño standing wave in December is just east of the Dateline. This year it was to the west with the wave effectively becoming established in the MJO 7 region. This lead to the warmest December on record for much of North America. The pattern was more similar to the El Niño phase 7 composite than the standard El Niño one which isn’t as warm. The inability of seasonal models like the Euro see the MJO effect beyond a week or two lead to the significant underestimation of the December temperature anomalies in North America. This was why I began pointing out the risks to the warm side for the December forecasts back in the fall. I finally upped my December forecast to +2.5 to 5.0 around the start of December for NYC when I had positive conformation of my earlier thoughts. Also outlined the +10 or more regions in the upper Midwest to Canada. Most forecasts at this time were still much cooler and didn’t really come around to the warmer risks until later in the month. I'm not sure what this post is responding to. The amplification of the VP signal over the warm pool wasn't ever in question. It was also further assisted by an equatorial rossby wave traversing the region too. Once again, all play a factor. What I was questioning was your comment that the MJO 'slowed down' this year which led to extra warmth. There was no 'slow down' in this sense of the VP anomaly signal (as we define it). It did a full cycle at a fairly quick rate of speed and was pretty coherent throughout. You saw the OLR response as well. So that theory of 'slowing' isn't really an accurate way to describe December. Highest amplification/VP anomaly in p7 is absolutelty correct, but the MJO slowed/stalled? No. Further, I'm making a comment about sub-seasonal forecast usability at the weekly timeframe above all else here and pointing out that 2002 didn't have the depth of that warm pool response, but did have a Modoki signal to achieve a very similar OLR result. The temperature pattern was not nearly as amplified warm in the northeast and east in general, which speaks to potential bg warming climate itself, a dislocation of cold air on this side of the pole (for several reasons) and an h5 response that, while may have looked good to some on the EC weeklies, ended up advecting mP air with a displaced PV on the other side of the pole. For what it's worth I had a very warm December as well and also faded very aggressively the last week of December as you may remember. Had I been one who believed in p8-1 VP anomaly traversing eastward (as it clearly did) as the primary driver for temperature regime change, I would've been one who would've 'bitten' on the cold for Christmas werk. This was my real point about sub-seasonal bust potential following the agreed upon MJO/GSDM methodology. You had colder phases, you didn't produce expected results during the 'colder' phases for several reasons. This is why it's just a piece of a forecast puzzle and not a sole driver. There is a strong seasonal correlation to warmth in December El Nino's nothern tier and west, so most forecasters who do their homework should've been warm to very warm nationaly (there's also a seasonality to eastern warmth the week around Christmas too in Nino's). But I do question the validity of blaming the amplitude of the warmth solely on a highly amplified p7. There was more to it this season and it was pretty clear early on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 TBH I think the torchiest/worst pattern we get might happen between about 2/3-2/9 or so....its still far off but that has the look of worst maybe happening before it reshuffles..the next 12 days may be above normal but there may be chances for something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 hours ago, gravitylover said: Dude, you could use space lasers to saw off the Ross ice shelf then tow it to the west Pacific. As it melts it'll cool the water! But thats happening anyway and the resulting sea level rise will be horrific I like the idea of creating a pump to constantly mix up the water, but the environmental issues (effect on sea life) that would cause probably wouldn't be good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 hours ago, NittanyWx said: I'm not sure what this post is responding to. The amplification of the VP signal over the warm pool wasn't ever in question. It was also further assisted by an equatorial rossby wave traversing the region too. Once again, all play a factor. What I was questioning was your comment that the MJO 'slowed down' this year which led to extra warmth. There was no 'slow down' in this sense of the VP anomaly signal (as we define it). It did a full cycle at a fairly quick rate of speed and was pretty coherent throughout. You saw the OLR response as well. So that theory of 'slowing' isn't really an accurate way to describe December. Highest amplification/VP anomaly in p7 is absolutelty correct, but the MJO slowed/stalled? No. Further, I'm making a comment about sub-seasonal forecast usability at the weekly timeframe above all else here and pointing out that 2002 didn't have the depth of that warm pool response, but did have a Modoki signal to achieve a very similar OLR result. The temperature pattern was not nearly as amplified warm in the northeast and east in general, which speaks to potential bg warming climate itself, a dislocation of cold air on this side of the pole (for several reasons) and an h5 response that, while may have looked good to some on the EC weeklies, ended up advecting mP air with a displaced PV on the other side of the pole. For what it's worth I had a very warm December as well and also faded very aggressively the last week of December as you may remember. Had I been one who believed in p8-1 VP anomaly traversing eastward (as it clearly did) as the primary driver for temperature regime change, I would've been one who would've 'bitten' on the cold for Christmas werk. This was my real point about sub-seasonal bust potential following the agreed upon MJO/GSDM methodology. You had colder phases, you didn't produce expected results during the 'colder' phases for several reasons. This is why it's just a piece of a forecast puzzle and not a sole driver. There is a strong seasonal correlation to warmth in December El Nino's nothern tier and west, so most forecasters who do their homework should've been warm to very warm nationaly (there's also a seasonality to eastern warmth the week around Christmas too in Nino's). But I do question the validity of blaming the amplitude of the warmth solely on a highly amplified p7. There was more to it this season and it was pretty clear early on. I think we may be using different terminology to describe the same phenomenon. The more robust MJO and convection than usual for such a strong El Niño from the Maritime Continent to just west of the Dateline interacted with the westward displaced El Niño standing wave enhancing the overall strength of the pattern. The location of the standing wave in the phase 7 region of the WPAC aligned more with the December MJO 7 El Niño composite more than the usual canonical El Niño pattern alone. Notice the ECMWF Seas 5 missed the MJO component of the forecast so the ridge and temperature response was too weak. Paul even made a note of it on twitter along with the met community in Australia with the recent record flooding and high dewpoints. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: TBH I think the torchiest/worst pattern we get might happen between about 2/3-2/9 or so....its still far off but that has the look of worst maybe happening before it reshuffles..the next 12 days may be above normal but there may be chances for something Lol and here the media is (specifically Lee Goldberg) saying we return to winter and cold weather by early February. Are we looking at sunny and mild? That's not bad at all-- ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN RAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 hours ago, NittanyWx said: I'm not sure what this post is responding to. The amplification of the VP signal over the warm pool wasn't ever in question. It was also further assisted by an equatorial rossby wave traversing the region too. Once again, all play a factor. What I was questioning was your comment that the MJO 'slowed down' this year which led to extra warmth. There was no 'slow down' in this sense of the VP anomaly signal (as we define it). It did a full cycle at a fairly quick rate of speed and was pretty coherent throughout. You saw the OLR response as well. So that theory of 'slowing' isn't really an accurate way to describe December. Highest amplification/VP anomaly in p7 is absolutelty correct, but the MJO slowed/stalled? No. Further, I'm making a comment about sub-seasonal forecast usability at the weekly timeframe above all else here and pointing out that 2002 didn't have the depth of that warm pool response, but did have a Modoki signal to achieve a very similar OLR result. The temperature pattern was not nearly as amplified warm in the northeast and east in general, which speaks to potential bg warming climate itself, a dislocation of cold air on this side of the pole (for several reasons) and an h5 response that, while may have looked good to some on the EC weeklies, ended up advecting mP air with a displaced PV on the other side of the pole. For what it's worth I had a very warm December as well and also faded very aggressively the last week of December as you may remember. Had I been one who believed in p8-1 VP anomaly traversing eastward (as it clearly did) as the primary driver for temperature regime change, I would've been one who would've 'bitten' on the cold for Christmas werk. This was my real point about sub-seasonal bust potential following the agreed upon MJO/GSDM methodology. You had colder phases, you didn't produce expected results during the 'colder' phases for several reasons. This is why it's just a piece of a forecast puzzle and not a sole driver. There is a strong seasonal correlation to warmth in December El Nino's nothern tier and west, so most forecasters who do their homework should've been warm to very warm nationaly (there's also a seasonality to eastern warmth the week around Christmas too in Nino's). But I do question the validity of blaming the amplitude of the warmth solely on a highly amplified p7. There was more to it this season and it was pretty clear early on. If El Nino's are supposed to be mild in December, what differentiates the exceptions like 2002-03 and 2009-10 which were quite wintry in December? Is it just about the Atlantic side blocking? If so, why do we consider el nino more important? We can eliminate the influence of el nino (outside of the stronger subtropical jet) and solely focus on Atlantic side blocking as the major component in colder weather, at least for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 But thats happening anyway and the resulting sea level rise will be horrific I like the idea of creating a pump to constantly mix up the water, but the environmental issues (effect on sea life) that would cause probably wouldn't be good either. I truly believe that we have the technology and simple solutions to help mitigate a lot of things - halting deforestation, continuing reforestation and more tree planting, using existing clean energy technologies (nuclear) - it’s just a matter of do we actually want to? Some of these ideas are cheap compared to moonshot ideas. Sometimes people just like to spend other people’s money, for ego and glory and for others to say their moonshot worked.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, North and West said: I truly believe that we have the technology and simple solutions to help mitigate a lot of things - halting deforestation, continuing reforestation and more tree planting, using existing clean energy technologies (nuclear) - it’s just a matter of do we actually want to? Some of these ideas are cheap compared to moonshot ideas. Sometimes people just like to spend other people’s money, for ego and glory and for others to say their moonshot worked. . Yep and you know what else we can do-- stop using pesticides. We have the tech right now to use drones with onboard lasers to kill weeds without harming any other form of life at all. They're already started to deploy them but it should be happening more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 No more threads anticipated in January with ice-snow next week probably I84 corridor northward. Monitoring for 2+" qpf the last 10 days of the month pushing us up toward top 10 January prep and also renewed minor flooding in NJ but looong ways off to be sure. Focus today on whatever occurs in the snow thread. I sure hope Feb produces. Looks somewhat favorable to me. EC weeklies dated the 18th are focusing in on the traditional Feb 5-15 period. Fingers crossed. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Yep and you know what else we can do-- stop using pesticides. We have the tech right now to use drones with onboard lasers to kill weeds without harming any other form of life at all. They're already started to deploy them but it should be happening more quickly.I’ve seen those reels on instagram - it’s amazing, and there’s a lot of (no pun intended) downstream benefits to zapping weeds with light. Less runoff, fewer chemicals in the environment, etc.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, North and West said: I’ve seen those reels on instagram - it’s amazing, and there’s a lot of (no pun intended) downstream benefits to zapping weeds with light. Less runoff, fewer chemicals in the environment, etc. . less toxic chemicals in our bodies too. Tech is finally making it down from NASA onto the level of mainstream users now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I wonder when the last time DC had more snowfall than CPK? Was it really 09/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder when the last time DC had more snowfall than CPK? Was it really 09/10? 89-90 too, if you want to look for bad winters where DC did better. 65-66 which some used as an analog had 40" down by Norfolk VA while NYC saw half of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, LibertyBell said: 89-90 too, if you want to look for bad winters where DC did better. 65-66 which some used as an analog had 40" down by Norfolk VA while NYC saw half of that Thanks! I am surprised they did better on 89/90, that winter was an absolute furnace outside of December (I remember one storm here that turned to ice after being like 10 degrees before the storm lol). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! I am surprised they did better on 89/90, that winter was an absolute furnace outside of December (I remember one storm here that turned to ice after being like 10 degrees before the storm lol). There was a storm that dumped snow in DC in December and it was rain up here lol. It was forecasted to be 6-8 inches of snow but the secondary developed too close to the coast and it changed to rain and thunderstorms as soon as the snow started. This was in the middle of that historically cold December. We got a bust in the opposite direction the previous February (in 1989) when it was forecast to be 6-8 inches of snow and all we got was virga and 0 snowfall while Atlantic City got nearly 20 inches. That was another huge waste of cold air; it was overcast all day and looked like it could snow any second and come down hard, but nothing at all fell from the skies. So in 1988-89 ACY definitely beat NYC for snowfall and in 1989-90 DC beat NYC for snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! I am surprised they did better on 89/90, that winter was an absolute furnace outside of December (I remember one storm here that turned to ice after being like 10 degrees before the storm lol). Incidentally we had this in January 1994, in between all the ice and nice snowstorms we had a storm where it was 0 degrees for the low in NYC and it hit 32 by midnight (from 0F to 0C on the same calendar day lol) and it was rain and 58 degrees the next day on roaring SE winds of 60 mph lol. That was our second zero or subzero Arctic blast that month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 29 and light snow (coating) expecting 2-3 here before its done. Peak of cold later today - Sun a bit moderated from initial forecasted assumptions but still lower teens perhaps some single digits inland and teens near/in the metro. Moderate 1/22 - 1/30 before next trough and cold pushes in and through the region to close the month and open Feb. Beyond there ride near normal back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Olr maps look a bit better today in regards of getting into p8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: If El Nino's are supposed to be mild in December, what differentiates the exceptions like 2002-03 and 2009-10 which were quite wintry in December? Is it just about the Atlantic side blocking? If so, why do we consider el nino more important? We can eliminate the influence of el nino (outside of the stronger subtropical jet) and solely focus on Atlantic side blocking as the major component in colder weather, at least for us. In recent times it is mostly Pacific differences (EPO region), differences in the strength/location of the PV, and also big differences in the amount of blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Aren't we just getting into 5 now? So our best week to date has been in P4. Isn't P4 supposed to be bad in Nino's? I think that is what Nittany was getting at, that there is a ton more to it than just getting into mjo phases. I think the split/weak pv helped for this week being winter like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yep and you know what else we can do-- stop using pesticides. We have the tech right now to use drones with onboard lasers to kill weeds without harming any other form of life at all. They're already started to deploy them but it should be happening more quickly. For interested homeowners, where can one buy a weed zapping laser.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, FPizz said: Aren't we just getting into 5 now? So our best week to date has been in P4. Isn't P4 supposed to be bad in Nino's? I think that is what Nittany was getting at, that there is a ton more to it than just getting into mjo phases. I think the split/weak pv helped for this week being winter like. This week was p3 lag. You don’t get a mjo response instantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: For interested homeowners, where can one buy a weed zapping laser.... https://www.sharperimage.com/view/product/Chemical-Free+Weed+Killer/207416?p=plist2470005&sku=207416-01&pc=20GOOGLE&utm_source=Google&utm_medium=CPC&utm_campaign=&Keyword=&device=c&creative=&cm_mmc=CPC-_-AllCategories-New-Pmax-_-NA&network=x&matchtype=&adpos=&creative=&cpgnid=20490637168&mkwid=|pkw||pcrid||pmt||pdv|c|slid||productid|207416-01|pgrid=&ptaid=&gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIsou2ldfpgwMVEEpHAR3Xzg0DEAQYASABEgJlhPD_BwE I found this lol The Chemical-Free Weed Killer uses concentrated light to target and kill weeds at the root level. Infrared light creates heat that cuts off the water supply from the root, while ultraviolet light penetrates the ground to disrupt root functions, without damaging surrounding plants or grass. Chemical-Free Weed Killer The Chemical-Free Weed Killer uses concentrated light to target and kill weeds at the root level, without harmful and dangerous chemicals. • Concentrated combination of ultraviolet and UV light • Targets and kills weeds at the root level • Infrared light creates heat that cuts off the water supply from the root • Ultraviolet light penetrates the ground to disrupt the root functions • Destroys the root, root crown and leaves within 10 days • Does not damage surrounding plants or grass • Safe and environmentally friendly • No dangerous chemicals needed • Plugs into an AC outlet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 \ 17 minutes ago, FPizz said: Aren't we just getting into 5 now? So our best week to date has been in P4. Isn't P4 supposed to be bad in Nino's? I think that is what Nittany was getting at, that there is a ton more to it than just getting into mjo phases. I think the split/weak pv helped for this week being winter like. We have composites built off of historical analogs for an expected h5 pattern during MJO P1, P2, P3 etc. We further filter them by El Nino/La Nina cycles, etc. Those analog h5 composites are used in predictive forecasts. During MJO P4 I should expect 'X' pattern. That's the point of using these analog forecasts. The pattern we are seeing now at H5 is not matching up the typical p4 composite. Roundy's analog work got the polar regions really, really wrong. So even the lagged methodology isn't working. Arguing that in this situation the cold we see now is a lagged impact /response completely ignores the fact that you're using a nonlagged composite as the basis forecast in the first place. So if you sat here and said i expect a P3 look when we're in P4...why do the analog cases argue the exact opposite? This is why I kinda get frustrated at how people use the MJO. If the response is lagged, why are you using unlagged composites for the MJO analogs? Like I think it's OK to sit here and say 'hey this didn't work, it's a bust this go' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This week was p3 lag. You don’t get a mjo response instantly The MJO composites you are using as the basis for 'what to expect in p3' are not lagged. They are the H5 pattern you get during the OLR/VP MJO identified week 3. This is, bluntly, a total cop out. I've read all this research on lagged response times and the lagged stuff Roundy uses wasn't any better in the polar regions. The answer, in this case, was the MJO P4 composites gave you a negative skill forecast for this week. What should be happening is dissecting what variables made that fail rather than passing it off as 'oh it's lagged'. You don't know that and when I ask 'how many days does it lag' you're essentially telling us the historical MJO composites are bullshit. I'll be blunt, I think a lot of people are learning the wrong lessons from this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Our peak warm spells this winter have been in MJO 8 1, what does that tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now