bluewave Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This MJO interaction with the El Niño is causing repeated jet extensions which lead to continuing warm ups. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it'd hard to call them futile with 77-78, 93-94 and 95-96 in there Eh, 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years is real rough. This century Central Park had 13 above average snowfall winters in 23 years, or 56.52%. Huge contrast unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: This winter so far is more evidence that there seem to have been two pattern shifts to our winters starting with the 15-16 super El Niño. The first shift is that all our winters since then have been warmer to record warmer. So this winter will mark a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer winters. The beginning of the warmer period from 15-16 to 17-18 still was producing record snowfall within the 09-10 to 17-18 window. Then around 18-19 we started to see a decline in snowfall to a lower baseline than before 2010-2018. The common denominator seems to be a more amplified MJO 4-7 pattern and a stronger ridge near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if we can at least change up the snowfall equation and sneak in another year like 20-21 over the next few winters. My working amateur thesis was that maybe another Niño would snap things back in a positive direction for people like me who love the cold and snow. Might have to revisit that…… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This MJO interaction with the El Niño is causing too many jet extensions which make it tough to sustain cold or more than a week at a time like we are currently seeing. If we flush all the cold out of North America again it will be hard to rebound with the clock ticking 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: This MJO interaction with the El Niño is causing repeated jet extensions which make it tough to sustain cold or more than a week at a time like we are currently seeing. If there’s a positive NAO, no muting that pac air. Dr Lee doesn’t seem optimistic a negative NAO comes from this strat disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: This MJO interaction with the El Niño is causing repeated jet extensions which lead to continuing warm ups. Just nasty looking! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 by that time - we will be mowing our lawns - I bet we have at least a couple 70 + degree days in February..sun angle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If we flush all the cold out of North America again it will be hard to rebound with the clock ticking Not your typical El Nino with a backloaded February. Still plenty of time for it to change but not looking good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, uofmiami said: This leads to what I was referring to before. The western IO water temps will once again have wave amplification in Phase 1 (see the MJO plot). Will be similar to what we just had in terms of MJO, albeit perhaps without the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Eh, 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years is real rough. This century Central Park had 13 above average snowfall winters in 23 years, or 56.52%. Huge contrast unfortunately. Getting 93-94 and 95-96 two out of three years was enough for me not to care about the late 90s lol, those were two amazing winters whose memories will last for a lifetime. As a matter of fact as 1995-96 approached the record, I thought to myself, that if I only get to experience a record winter for snowfall, I won't mind if it never snows again, just get that one great winter like the oldtimers always talked about lol. After 1995-96 I stopped following winter weather for the rest of the 90s, because that one winter had enough snow for the entire decade (add 1993-94 in for 2 historic winters in the same decade), the next time I cared about winter was 2000-01. I judge active decades for snowfall in terms of how many seasons in the decade have 50"+ inches of snowfall. There were 2 in the 1960s (1960-61 and 1966-67), 1 in the 1970s (1977-78), 0 in the 1980s, 2 in the 1990s (1993-94 and 1995-96), 1 in the 2000s (2002-03) and 4 in the 2010s (2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15). That 2010s decade was absolutely amazing! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not your typical El Nino with a backloaded February. Still plenty of time for it to change but not looking good . maybe March instead? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: maybe March instead? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not your typical El Nino with a backloaded February. Still plenty of time for it to change but not looking good . My “time to be concerned if we don’t see a turnaround” window is around now and not encouraging to see these signs of the Pacific going on another rampage. If snow is out of the question I’m fine with it warming into the 40s-50s again. Screw these cold periods with nothing to show for it. If it’ll be another total fail “winter” the worst is useless cold. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My “time to be concerned if we don’t see a turnaround” window is around now and not encouraging to see these signs of the Pacific going on another rampage. If snow is out of the question I’m fine with it warming into the 40s-50s again. Screw these cold periods with nothing to show for it. If it’ll be another total fail “winter” the worst is useless cold. It's annoying that an ocean more than 3000 miles away has this much of an effect on our weather. It's not like the Atlantic has this kind of effect on Asian weather =\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My “time to be concerned if we don’t see a turnaround” window is around now and not encouraging to see these signs of the Pacific going on another rampage. If snow is out of the question I’m fine with it warming into the 40s-50s again. Screw these cold periods with nothing to show for it. If it’ll be another total fail “winter” the worst is useless cold. And even moreso, no one but no one wants more rain. If it's going to be in the 40s and 50s it should be sunny and clear and no rain for at least a month. Get the rainy, misty, foggy crap out of here, once and for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 You can see how this is following the last wave. With the western IO temps expect another wave in phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's annoying that an ocean more than 3000 miles away has this much of an effect on our weather. It's not like the Atlantic has this kind of effect on Asian weather =\ 56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: And even moreso, no one but no one wants more rain. If it's going to be in the 40s and 50s it should be sunny and clear and no rain for at least a month. Get the rainy, misty, foggy crap out of here, once and for all! 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Good morning Liberty, Allsnow. I’ve read that the oceans absorb much of the carbon output. If the oceans are sentient perhaps what is being experienced could be called justice. If they are not then the effects may be more in the realm of self fulfilling prophecy. Stay well, as always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: My “time to be concerned if we don’t see a turnaround” window is around now and not encouraging to see these signs of the Pacific going on another rampage. If snow is out of the question I’m fine with it warming into the 40s-50s again. Screw these cold periods with nothing to show for it. If it’ll be another total fail “winter” the worst is useless cold. I'm selling most of my winter boots online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I'm selling most of my winter boots online. lotta scammers out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: by that time - we will be mowing our lawns - I bet we have at least a couple 70 + degree days in February.. With a +PNA you won't see anything that warm, it'll just be alot of days averaging 5-7 above normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Expected. We wait till phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: If we flush all the cold out of North America again it will be hard to rebound with the clock ticking If Dr. Simon Lee is correct and we go into February with a +NAO/+AO due to the latest unfavorable stratospheric and SPV developments we are in big trouble. You will be at the mercy of strong ++ENSO/El Nino induced PAC jet extensions, MJO waves propogating over phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool convection and the -PDO. You are not going to sustain -EPO with a Nino this strong and +PNA does no good when you have +EPO/+WPO and no arctic or Atlantic high latitude blocking over the top 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Worth noting the amount of low level cold in this synoptic setup and the storm track H5 creates during the 'relax' period at 500. Could lead to an icy situation. Lotta HP in eastern Canada. Periodic reminder we don't live at 500mb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Phase 6/7 +ENSO is not that warm for us. It's no surprise how muted the warmup looks on the GFS. A lot of eastern Canada highs scooting east, even leaves open ice threats around here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If Dr. Simon Lee is correct and we go into February with a +NAO/+AO due to the latest unfavorable stratospheric and SPV developments we are in big trouble. You will be at the mercy of strong ++ENSO/El Nino induced PAC jet extensions, MJO waves propogating over phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool convection and the -PDO. You are not going to sustain -EPO with a Nino this strong and +PNA does no good when you have +EPO/+WPO and no arctic or Atlantic high latitude blocking over the top Yeah the only place that will be cool is the SE where even in that pattern they'd see their coldest February in like 8 years since without the SER they won't see days of 75-80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Expected. We wait till phase 1. Our coldest week of the year has come in P3/P4. Other atmospheric drivers will have something to say here... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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