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21 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice snow swath as seen on morning visible satellite pic.  That snow pack helped produce the extreme cold this morning over the northern Gulf states and TN Valley this morning.  I believe it hit 0 in Nashville this morning.

Screenshot 2024-01-17 at 10.37.50 AM.jpg

 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Noted, but I'll hedge against that. The progression of the MJO has been underplayed all season. 

Sure enough today a few more GEFS members try blasting it past 6 through 7, the EPS effectively kills the wave in 6 which I said is fine too because then you probably just revert into a typical Nino February state

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEPS is the same general theme and the GEFS is more of a gradient pattern.

1706745600-1MrLDUgx52o.png1706745600-XsHBkXqxFHM.png

That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period.  If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets.

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20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period.  If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets.

I am thinking the varying model solutions are due to the MJO forecast to go into phase 7 near the start of February. Phase 7 is much better for us in January than February during an El Niño. The models with a stronger -EPO +PNA have more of a phase 7 look for January. The phase 7 composite in February has more of a ridge across the CONUS. Both the extended EPS and GEFS slow the MJO down in 7 in early February. My guess due to the record SSTs near the Dateline. 
 

A6444F19-30ED-4E64-9701-198210EC4D16.png.570e962037c61567d988f7a1510ac869.png

9E0D640C-FFD0-4017-86C3-54DE03E5B7AF.png.322fe43b60e574937c77aaab798b811c.png

D8D11407-8E95-4D75-A106-4189D212159D.thumb.png.c9a3dc761723f6db7bae775d1df6bcf5.png

4D8E1CF2-DF96-477B-9F8A-9E5A9B02F8A8.thumb.jpeg.1993eef251b6672cfbf52390e0ef8b37.jpeg



49FAEF25-1EB1-41D4-B7CE-FDF66E5C6EF3.gif.49245c105a77c5d000f05da74b64f58e.gif

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I am thinking the varying model solutions are due to the MJO forecast to go into phase 7 near the start of February. Phase 7 is much better for us in January than February during an El Niño. The models with a stronger -EPO +PNA have more of a phase 7 look for January. The phase 7 composite in February has more of a ridge across the CONUS. Both the extended EPS and GEFS slow the MJO down in 7 in early February. My guess due to the record SSTs near the Dateline. 
 

A6444F19-30ED-4E64-9701-198210EC4D16.png.570e962037c61567d988f7a1510ac869.png

9E0D640C-FFD0-4017-86C3-54DE03E5B7AF.png.322fe43b60e574937c77aaab798b811c.png

D8D11407-8E95-4D75-A106-4189D212159D.thumb.png.c9a3dc761723f6db7bae775d1df6bcf5.png

4D8E1CF2-DF96-477B-9F8A-9E5A9B02F8A8.thumb.jpeg.1993eef251b6672cfbf52390e0ef8b37.jpeg


 

 

@40/70 Benchmark

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20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period.  If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets.

In other words, I still don't need to take the snow blower out of mothballs.....going for that incredible stretch from 97-2000 where I didn't use it once and the hoses dry rotted.....

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

In other words, I still don't need to take the snow blower out of mothballs.....going for that incredible stretch from 97-2000 where I didn't use it once and the hoses dry rotted.....

Is 2021 the last time you used it? 

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28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period.  If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets.

I posted something similar in another thread without being quite as blunt about it, but was told it is a workable pattern and would just take some unconventional methods to work. Feb 15th - 26th is where we have our next legit shot after the light system Friday. Then lights out after that.

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20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I posted something similar in another thread without being quite as blunt about it, but was told it is a workable pattern and would just take some unconventional methods to work. Feb 15th - 26th is where we have our next legit shot after the light system Friday. Then lights out after that.

Maybe we could get a warm March for a change....winter's mostly done by then anyway at least as far as accum snows

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I remember when people thought March 2010 was gonna rock after a relaxation period and instead we torched and got slammed with rain 

There was blocking but it was just stale torched air at that point.....

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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am thinking the varying model solutions are due to the MJO forecast to go into phase 7 near the start of February. Phase 7 is much better for us in January than February during an El Niño. The models with a stronger -EPO +PNA have more of a phase 7 look for January. The phase 7 composite in February has more of a ridge across the CONUS. Both the extended EPS and GEFS slow the MJO down in 7 in early February. My guess due to the record SSTs near the Dateline. 
 

A6444F19-30ED-4E64-9701-198210EC4D16.png.570e962037c61567d988f7a1510ac869.png

9E0D640C-FFD0-4017-86C3-54DE03E5B7AF.png.322fe43b60e574937c77aaab798b811c.png

D8D11407-8E95-4D75-A106-4189D212159D.thumb.png.c9a3dc761723f6db7bae775d1df6bcf5.png

4D8E1CF2-DF96-477B-9F8A-9E5A9B02F8A8.thumb.jpeg.1993eef251b6672cfbf52390e0ef8b37.jpeg



49FAEF25-1EB1-41D4-B7CE-FDF66E5C6EF3.gif.49245c105a77c5d000f05da74b64f58e.gif

 

Shouldn't we re-emerge in phase 1 again like the last wave? Check those ocean temps off Africa in phases 1 and 2.

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I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. 

Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 

3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. 

Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold…

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2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. 

Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 

3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. 

Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold…

You may do better Friday than the rest of us up here

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I remember when people thought March 2010 was gonna rock after a relaxation period and instead we torched and got slammed with rain 

2010 torch started in March & continued right thru Sept, monthly warm rankings at Phila during that stretch:

MAR - 10th

APR - 5th

MAY - 10th

JUN - 1st

JUL - 6th

AUG - 11th

SEP - 7th

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2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. 

Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 

3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. 

Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold…

It’s glacial. Snow removal has been brutal. Salt almost no effect when temps below 20. My manager just doesn’t seem to get this concept. (More salt, more salt on the radio alllllll day today) 

ummm we are making a mess and it’s not working 

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16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies look mild to start February. Blocking and Aleutian low can kicked to end of month 

seems like a repeat of January-the pattern looked to change around xmas and it was actually 3 weeks after that...

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6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

There was definitely a nice glaze on trees here but I wouldn’t say we were near 0.25” which is warning criteria ice. I would say 0.1” or so actually accreted. When temps are just below freezing a good amount of the rain just runs off. When temps get down to 28-29 it becomes a lot more dangerous when there’s steady rain. 

Thanks, JM.  A question.... where does it run off to?  The lowest ground it can find? And when it gets there does it freeze there (the freezing rain equivalent of a snow drift I guess lol)

 

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