Eduardo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Given how the past few winters have gone and the fact that we are climatologically near winter’s peak, a big part of me feels like the next few days will be the coldest stretch this winter will have to offer. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Given how the past few winters have gone and the fact that we are climatologically near winter’s peak, a big part of me feels like the next few days will be the coldest stretch this winter will have to offer. Anyone else? Probably a good bet unless it's like 2016 where we get a one off zero degree day in February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Down to 16, prior season low was 17. Be curious to see if I go any lower before sunrise. Temp plot looks to still be slowly dropping. The snow remaining on my grass has a beautiful crystalline sheen from the cold temps, I love it. I managed to scrape by the protracted rain fest after my three inches fell with at least one remaining inch on the grass. I’ll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Down to 19 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Cold morning out there. Current temp 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15.3 and still dropping, dew below 10 now. Whipped out my heavy down parka for the first time since last Xmas. The beast: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 chilly start to the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8F here in the Berkshires this AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 14 chilly start to the day Feels so refreshing! Nothing wakes you up better than a cool winter morning, I live for it. Meanwhile on humid summer mornings I want to promptly about face and divebomb into my ice tray… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I think 82/83 had more to do with blocking as well. Does anyone have temp stats on the 80s? I remember them being cold dry warm and wet like now with areas like kC setting cold records like now while we either roasted or was frigid but ended up raining anyway. Here's an interesting thing about 15-16, popular opinion is that it was a one storm wonder, but it was really more than that. Long Island got hit with a storm that dumped a foot of snow in February and even the city got 4-6 inches and a crane fell in Manhattan in that storm. There was another storm in February that year too, around the superbowl I think? And NYC went below zero on Valentine's Day! Besides the torch in December, we had a nice winter, much better than the last 2 that's for sure. JFK had over 40" of snow and parts of Long Island had 50" and I remember a few things about 82-83, besides the February 1983 HECS, we had our latest accumulating snowfall on record on April 19-20, 1983. JFK got 2 inches in that storm and inland areas got 1-2 feet! So even if the el nino is very strong, you can count on either getting hit by a snowstorm late in the season or having a close call. Pretty much all you can ask for. Very rarely do we get winters that are snowy beginning to end, I think the last one we had was 2002-03 and 1995-96 and 1993-94 before that. I have not had any others here in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Probably a good bet unless it's like 2016 where we get a one off zero degree day in February in 2015 February was also colder than January. Back in the old days, February used to be our coldest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: They had .16" frz rain. Ewr only a trace https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS JFK had 2.0 of snow too. LGA also just missed 2", as they ended up with 1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: New York City's record 701-day streak without 1" daily snowfall ended today. Its record 717-day streak without 2" or more daily snowfall continued. A fresh shot of cold air will overspread the region following the storm responsible for New York City's and Philadelphia's biggest snowfall so far this winter. The low temperature could fall into the teens for the first time this season. Another storm could impact the region Friday or Saturday. However, uncertainty about the storm's track and impact has increased. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the weekend, which will likely see this winter's coldest readings so far. Beyond that, a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region will likely commence. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +31.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.670 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.828 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.515 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.3° (1.6° above normal). Don, the el nino has peaked and has started to go down again? It peaked right at +2.0 last week, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 degrees in Atlanta currently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15 here. Brrr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Deep winter outside 19 degrees here in Brooklyn Very Icy outside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Here's an interesting thing about 15-16, popular opinion is that it was a one storm wonder, but it was really more than that. Long Island got hit with a storm that dumped a foot of snow in February and even the city got 4-6 inches and a crane fell in Manhattan in that storm. There was another storm in February that year too, around the superbowl I think? And NYC went below zero on Valentine's Day! Besides the torch in December, we had a nice winter, much better than the last 2 that's for sure. JFK had over 40" of snow and parts of Long Island had 50" and I remember a few things about 82-83, besides the February 1983 HECS, we had our latest accumulating snowfall on record on April 19-20, 1983. JFK got 2 inches in that storm and inland areas got 1-2 feet! So even if the el nino is very strong, you can count on either getting hit by a snowstorm late in the season or having a close call. Pretty much all you can ask for. Very rarely do we get winters that are snowy beginning to end, I think the last one we had was 2002-03 and 1995-96 and 1993-94 before that. I have not had any others here in my lifetime. I would put 14/15 almost as high as 03 and 96, we snowed all the way till March when everything was suppressed to DC (was not like we warmed up or anything). Yeah in 15/16 my town reached average snowfall with a mid March 3 incher. 82/83 had those storms, however CPK only reached average snowfall with 27.2, and was actually the only winter in the entire decade to reach average snowfall (the decade snowfall average was 19.74 inches). What's absolutely insane is CPK reached average snowfall only 5 seasons in 30 years! 77/78, 78/79, 82/83, 93/94, 95/96. What's even more amazing is CPK had only three years with above average snowfall in 30 years. 55 through 69 and 00 through 18 inflated CPKs average annual snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12 degrees in Atlanta currently Impressive cold shot for sure with lots of broken records. Unlike 15/16 this shot was a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 My surviving “snowpack”, which I’ll take mind you: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 A lot of spread on the MJO front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Great radiational cooling last night. I got down to 4 up here. Most of Sussex County was down into the single digits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9/1 currently. Lovely morning. That 12 spot in Atlanta is likely doing some damage. Not sure what the “r” values are down that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 NYC currently 19. Panama City Florida is only 24 lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 37 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 15 here. Brrr. We used to get teens for highs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, SnoSki14 said: We used to get teens for highs Single digits also back in the day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: 9/1 currently. Lovely morning. That 12 spot in Atlanta is likely doing some damage. Not sure what the “r” values are down that way. Same as Jersey for the most part with regards to stud walls and ceilings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Single digits also back in the day When Washington crossed the Delaware there were ice jams. Can only imagine how they survived those winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Got down to 8 degrees this morning. Was in the hot tub last night, perfect weather for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NYC currently 19. Panama City Florida is only 24 lol. Another case of the coldest departures and temperatures dropping to our west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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