January 2024

[Volcanic Winter]

The early 90’s were “perturbed” synoptically by Pinatubo, as you guys know. I think it had a hand in some of the more anomalous events then, including the March 93 triple phaser. 

I do know that regionally the northeast wasn’t especially cold after Pinatubo, but the globe was. And from what I’ve read the northeast regional weather was influenced heavily by the ENSO state which may have masked the more noticeable effects experienced elsewhere. 

Imagine a similar traditionally gassy large eruption occurring before the 2015-16 super Niño.

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The greatest Arctic outbreak in NYC since 1994 occurred  during our 2nd warmest winter in 15-16. It was colder than any of the readings in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. The low of 3 last winter was similar to both those winters which were much colder.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Minimum Temperature
1	2001-2002	41.5	19
2	2022-2023	41.0	3
-	2015-2016	41.0	-1
3	2011-2012	40.5	13
4	1931-1932	40.1	18
5	1997-1998	39.6	14

Lowest temperature 

2014-2015	2	0
2013-2014	4	0

Winter average temperature

2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0

I'm not sure if this can be verified, but did the 2015-16 winter have the greatest departure between the highest temperature and the lowest temperature in DJF met winter?

 

[wdrag]

DecJan: I hope everyone is enjoying the extremes this winter season has brought us so far.  Obviously a nice winter week in progress. Is this all there is after the big warmup the middle of next week?  

You never know,  so good to take what we have or is imminent and enjoy it to the max.

I'm no long ranger so taking what I have available through Jan 30, ensembles qpf 1.5-2.5". If the max 2.5... CP would be #10 wettest Jan (6.0") and Allentown #4 with (6.7") respectively. Long ways to go and easier to have a shortfall.  

To me its looking interesting again from next weekend (27th and beyond) for mixed wintry events. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The early 90’s were “perturbed” synoptically by Pinatubo, as you guys know. I think it had a hand in some of the more anomalous events then, including the March 93 triple phaser. 

I do know that regionally the northeast wasn’t especially cold after Pinatubo, but the globe was. And from what I’ve read the northeast regional weather was influenced heavily by the ENSO state which may have masked the more noticeable effects experienced elsewhere. 

Imagine a similar traditionally gassy large eruption occurring before the 2015-16 super Niño.

 

I saw it mentioned that Pinatubo might have influenced the 1993-94 winter which was consistently much colder and snowier/icier than anyone ever expected (and with a very + NAO to boot!)

I do know it made the summer of 1992 absolutely horrible-- it rained every day that summer.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw it mentioned that Pinatubo might have influenced the 1993-94 winter which was consistently much colder and snowier/icier than anyone ever expected (and with a very + NAO to boot!)

I do know it made the summer of 1992 absolutely horrible-- it rained every day that summer.

 

Yup, the Year Without a Summer was noted for its constant storms and precipitation throughout the year. 

A fun anecdote surrounding Tambora was that the constant storminess in the aftermath heavily inspired Mary Shelley to conceive and write Frankenstein.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw it mentioned that Pinatubo might have influenced the 1993-94 winter which was consistently much colder and snowier/icier than anyone ever expected (and with a very + NAO to boot!)

I do know it made the summer of 1992 absolutely horrible-- it rained every day that summer.

 

93/94 wasn’t as great right at the coast. I remember taking the bus home from wantagh middle school up by the southern state in snow and hitting Merrick road and it was raining. One of my earliest weather memories and what got me fascinated with Long Islands weather. Could easily see that tomorrow morning.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

93/94 wasn’t as great right at the coast. I remember taking the bus home from wantagh middle school up by the southern state in snow and hitting Merrick road and it was raining. One of my earliest weather memories and what got me fascinated with Long Islands weather. Could easily see that tomorrow morning.

It had some interesting microclimates.  The western part of the south shore did a lot better, we had close to 50" that winter (JFK had 47 inches if I remember correctly.)  There was that amazing ice storm in January which was historic with close to 2 inches of ice (it never got to freezing here in that storm), and in February we had those amazing back to back storms with thundersnow.  8 inches with the first storm and 11 inches with the second storm.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

Don't need it. Just make it cold enough for snow

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Don't need it. Just make it cold enough for snow

and 1989 would be an ominous analog lol

[JustinRP37]

I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope.

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It had some interesting microclimates.  The western part of the south shore did a lot better, we had close to 50" that winter (JFK had 47 inches if I remember correctly.)  There was that amazing ice storm in January which was historic with close to 2 inches of ice (it never got to freezing here in that storm), and in February we had those amazing back to back storms with thundersnow.  8 inches with the first storm and 11 inches with the second storm.

 

I was surprised at what LongBeach posted, so maybe what you say above explains it.  I was just north of Sunrise and I remember driving into work hear Pat Pagano (who is still on the air btw, comfy as a winter fireplace) warning that temps were being very stubborn to get above freezing for that memorable storm.  To my knowledge we never did get above freezing, or did so very late after being back home for the day.  Granted, stumbling across wunderground almanac recently I realized that I've blocked out some of the albeit brief milder stretches of that winter, but still, from that locale, when I think of 93/94, I think snow, cold, ice, and sidestreets snowpacked for longer than I've seen before or since. I think of the best snow-on-snow I've ever seen, three days apart on a Tuesday and Friday in Feb, etc.

 

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure if this can be verified, but did the 2015-16 winter have the greatest departure between the highest temperature and the lowest temperature in DJF met winter?

 

It could be. 12-24-15 was +33 and 2-14-16 was -27.

[donsutherland1]

For those looking beyond the warmup following next weekend's cold shot, here's how February looked for ENSO cases where the tri-monthly ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly reached +1.5°C or above:

Those are mean temperatures and there was substantial variability year-to-year. The key insight is that there should be a return of colder weather for at least a time.

[Cfa]

I almost forgot we get subfreezing high temps. High of 31 so far. Gross.

[EastonSN+]

EURO has the late week storm, albeit somewhat weak.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those looking beyond the warmup following next weekend's cold shot, here's how February looked for ENSO cases where the tri-monthly ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly reached +1.5°C or above:

Those are mean temperatures and there was substantial variability year-to-year. The key insight is that there should be a return of colder weather for at least a time.

Feb 9-14 is a famous period for historic snowfalls.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I was surprised at what LongBeach posted, so maybe what you say above explains it.  I was just north of Sunrise and I remember driving into work hear Pat Pagano (who is still on the air btw, comfy as a winter fireplace) warning that temps were being very stubborn to get above freezing for that memorable storm.  To my knowledge we never did get above freezing, or did so very late after being back home for the day.  Granted, stumbling across wunderground almanac recently I realized that I've blocked out some of the albeit brief milder stretches of that winter, but still, from that locale, when I think of 93/94, I think snow, cold, ice, and sidestreets snowpacked for longer than I've seen before or since. I think of the best snow-on-snow I've ever seen, three days apart on a Tuesday and Friday in Feb, etc.

 

 

Yes, it was a very bad (meaning very good) winter for us lol.  I remember not being able to shovel the snow because the sleet and freezing rain had packed it in very hard.  I could walk on it without leaving any marks in it (which is fun) but there was no way to shovel any of it.  We had a thaw later in January when it was in the 50s but we went back to snowy in early February with those two big storms.  Then we had another thaw a week after that and then back to more snow in early March.  That was the first season that I measured snowfall and it was close to 50" and that's very similar to JFK's numbers for that season.  I was about a 5 minute drive south of Sunrise Hwy back then.

The first snowfall that season was in December, we had two snowfalls that month and then the icy/sleety/snowy January and then the big thundersnow events in February and then the snowy early March.

[wishcast_hater]

Any word on Friday storm?


.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope.

It reminds me of what they're saying about the Alps, bare ground, no good skiing for years now.

[bluewave]

One of the biggest snow extent reversals for North America that we have seen. 
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the biggest snow extent reversals for North America that we have seen. 
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

that may blunt next week's warmup to some degree...

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope.

Don't even think about taking up ice fishing. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that may blunt next week's warmup to some degree...

The record SSTs near 60E drove the very amplified MJO 2 response and deep trough out West. 
 

[donsutherland1]

Periods of snow brought light accumulations to the Washington, DC area today. Light snow and flurries have also been falling in the Philadelphia and Wilmington, DE areas. Dulles Airport saw its record 673-day streak without an inch of daily snowfall come to an end. A similar fate awaits record-breaking streaks in Baltimore, New York City, Philadelphia, and likely Atlantic City.

The storm bringing periods of snow to the Middle Atlantic region will likely bring a general 1"-3" snowfall to New York City and Boston tonight into early Wednesday. Philadelphia and areas north and west of New York City and Newark could see 2"-4" of snow with some locally higher amounts. In addition, the snow could change to some light rain or freezing rain, especially in areas from New York City south and east.

A fresh shot of cold air will overspread the region following the storm. A stronger shot of cold will arrive late in the week or during the weekend following another storm. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the middle of the week for the first time this season and should fall into the teens during the weekend, which will likely see this winter's coldest readings so far.

Beyond that, a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region will likely commence. This warm period will very likely assure that January winds up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 winds up as a warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked.

The SOI was +33.74 today. That is the highest SOI figure since April 8, 2023 when the SOI reached +33.74.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.459 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On January 13 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.515 (RMM). The January 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.365 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.1° (1.4° above normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

This looks like the MJO will follow the last wave (i.e. re-emerge in phase 1). Waters off the coast of Africa are skyrocketing so makes sense.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

Nice sea of warmth after our next dusting/cooldown this weekend.

 

This fucking winter…that is all

[SACRUS]

27/26 and 2.4 inches on the ground.  Some light snow  and frz rain.  Into the cold we go.  May only see freezing mark / above on Thu otherwise below freezing through this coming weekend (Sunday). Next light snow Thu PM into Fri, perhaps a follow up wave as the trough digs and arctic air deepens over the weekend. Cold peaks 1/19 - 1/21 with some single digit readings inland/ lower teens metro perhaps single digits there as well.  Highs in the low 20s Sat. Moderation to and above normal 1/23 - 1/30 as ridge pushes up the eastern US, before next trough is forecast to build in to open Feb.

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 58 (1995) - lowest record high in Jan
NYC:  58 (1995)
LGA: 59 (1953)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (2004)
NYC: 1 (2004)
LGA: 2 (1994)

Historical:

 

1831 - A great snowstorm raged from Georgia to Maine. Snowfall totals greater than 30 inches were reported from Pennsylvania across southern New England. (David Ludlum)

1964 - Fort Worth, TX, received 7.5 inches of snow, and Dallas reported a foot of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm produced a total of 61 inches of snow at Rye CO, and wind gusts to 100 mph in Utah. The storm then spread heavy snow from the Texas panhandle to Indiana. Tulia TX received 16 inches of snow, and up to 14 inches was reported in western Oklahoma. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A small storm in the western U.S. produced a foot of snow and wind gusts to 70 mph in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms produced 2.28 inches of rain at Brownsville TX,their third highest total for any day in January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong chinook winds plagued much of the state of Wyoming. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cody, and wind gusts to 100 mph were reported in eastern and northwestern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy snow fell across the Prince Williams Sound area and the Susitna Valley of southern Alaska. Valdez was buried under 64.9 inches of snow in less than two days, including a record 47.5 inches in 24 hours. Up to 44 inches of snow was reported in the Susitna Valley. The heavy snow blocked roads, closed schools, and sank half a dozen vessels in the harbor. (Storm Data)

 

1990: Heavy snow fell across Prince Williams Sound and the Susitna Valley of southern Alaska. Valdez was buried under 64.9 inches of snow in less than two days, including a record of 47.5 inches in 24 hours. The heavy snow blocked roads, closed schools, and sunk six vessels in the Valdez harbor under the heavy snow’s weight. The image below is from Storm Data.

 

 

2008: An area of low pressure brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern Georgia. Three to four inches was a typical amount reported from many of the northeast Georgia counties. 

[JustinRP37]

Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year.

That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”.