vegan_edible Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Allsnow said: love to see it but why do i feel like the cfs is the kiss of death 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I had my mini snow. All set for pitchers and catchers City can make it 1065. Why not? I had my snow, it's melting nicely, I cleared out my storm drains, so I'm ready for baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, North and West said: I had my snow, it's melting nicely, I cleared out my storm drains, so I'm ready for baseball. 1 minute ago, North and West said: I had my snow, it's melting nicely, I cleared out my storm drains, so I'm ready for baseball. ..are you predicting that your favorite baseball team's season is going down the drain??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: ..are you predicting that your favorite baseball team's season is going down the drain??? Mets so… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: love to see it but why do i feel like the cfs is the kiss of death The CFS has no real skill at this timeframe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The CFS has no real skill at this timeframe. One could ask, does it have any real skill, haha. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Have seen enough of the ensembles for 16th-17th. I'll leave that one out of the thread, for future consideration of a thread where I think we either have a period of snow or a snowstorm with I95 the east boundary and the assorted variations. Thread on this Fri-Sat should appear 5P. Have errands to run and focus I hope is the oncoming 9 hour torrential rain/wind event event Fri night - preceded by 1/2-2" snow sleet ne PA, extreme nw NJ north of I84 high terrain to Worcester Friday midday-afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 CPC's hazard issuance Jan 16-beyond. No see citification on precip so let's say normal... but snow, wind and cold are on the table... low probs but on the table. I like this for consideration of Jan 16-17. Just not enough for me to make it thread...not yet --- possibly by Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 33 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Have you heard of this album?..... https://www.amazon.com/Miracle-Mets-Marvelous-Marv/dp/B002HY6SJE I had the album. It was a giveaway from a gas station when you put x amount of gas in (I was 8 in 1969 when it came out). Played it until I memorized it. It's now available on Spotify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, jr461 said: I had the album. It was a giveaway from a gas station when you put x amount of gas in (I was 8 in 1969 when it came out). Played it until I memorized it. It's now available on Spotify. great album. I still have that one and several others that were put out during that time period. Mets have a fascinating early history. I recall the 1969 World Series where the Mets stunned the Orioles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This may be the first blizzard warming for the Cascades in such a strong El Niño. They had winter storm warnings during the January 1998 El Niño. But it didn’t rise to blizzard warmings. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/wswwest_jan04.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sterno2510 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Expect an HECS storm January 29-February 2. It always happens when I go away and I have a business trip during that time. I just know it will happen and I'll miss it just like every time I go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, sterno2510 said: Expect an HECS storm January 29-February 2. It always happens when I go away and I have a business trip during that time. I just know it will happen and I'll miss it just like every time I go away. I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Today was a tranquil day. Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the mild 40s across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. However, the calm is about to be shattered. A severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region late tomorrow into Wednesday. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds with gusts of 50 mph to 60 mph, and possibly major coastal flooding. Significant beach erosion is also likely. Temperatures will likely surge into the middle 50s in New York City and Newark and toward or above 60° in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Another strong storm could bring additional rain and wind to the region Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, a genuine Arctic air mass will begin advancing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains later this week. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter beginning on Sunday or Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +1.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.515 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 6 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.484 (RMM). The January 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.023 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.4° (0.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol Congratulations on the wedding. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lolDoes your betrothed read models in the same way you do?. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol It's gonna be like 93 on your wedding day 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 back to reality 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: back to reality The post 1/20 CONUS thaw is starting to look real. Growing support. If we don’t end up getting anything before that, it may have to wait until February 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The post 1/20 CONUS thaw is starting to look real. Growing support. If we don’t end up getting anything before that, it may have to wait until February thaw ? thaw from what around here ?........ 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The post 1/20 CONUS thaw is starting to look real. Growing support. If we don’t end up getting anything before that, it may have to wait until February The PNA maybe going positive could mute it...I also do not buy the -NAO just vanishing like that...I think it won't end up as bad as it currently looks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Well-this GFS run definitely brings the cold after 1/12. And no complaints about it on the wrong side of the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol Congratulations Snowman and in other news do opposites really attract = does she really love the snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Up late tonight so I decided to take a look at the Euro, and I see it has a nice snowstorm for next tuesday. A long way to go on that and I know we have 2 annoying cutters to get through before then, but hopefully we'll have something nice to look forward to for next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GFS at 6Z is on board for a snowstorm for next Tuesday. EURO continues with the threat as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Good Tuesday morning everyone, It is Dec 9. Storms today, late Friday-Saturday, next Tuesday and possibly the 19th-20th. Various moderate to high impact flavors on your life that will require adjustments. PLEASE follow National Weather Statements on the various phenomena this next week. Keep the shovel handy, the sump pump working, generator on standby with plenty of fuel and phones charged. You stand a good chance for a period of no power between now and next Tuesday night. Cellars will be tested for combined rainfall-snowmelt from NJ/PA northeast to Massachusetts. There may be isolated roof collapses and a better chance of roof leaks because snow-ice clogged gutters. Cancellations for various storms will be required in some places, especially NJ/PA/New England/NYS. I will likely begin the Tuesday 16th thread sometime between 11AM and 5PM. I've attached the 00z/9 EPS 24 hour positive snow depth change map that ends at 198 hours. Pretty significant but again looks tentatively like I95 west to the Appalachians.. I think its this storm that brings back normal or subnormal temps for a day or two, followed by a cold front around the 19th-20th that reinforces the normal or subnormal cold. Extended thaw? I doubt before the 23rd. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looks like two chances next week for snow. 16/17 and 19/20. I have to say this was a good call by me seeing the p3 response at the start of the month. Hopefully we get one of them before the pattern breaks down 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 06/9 GEFS does not have an inch for the 16th storm...not yet. GEFS tends to be conservative and I like the 06z op idea. No thread on this storm from myself til sometime between 11A-5P. I prefer to be better armed with somewhat more favorable consensus guidance. I do think it will happen I95 west but I dont want to post a HOPE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, bluewave said: That 500 mb look the Euro has for next Tuesday reminds me of the 95-96 winter. Great Southwest ridge and blocking. While the players aren’t exactly lined up and we have more ridging near the East Coast, the pattern has potential with the right track. Everything is so amped up right now in this pattern, I guess the risk for coastal sections next week is a little too much of a coastal hugger. Agreed... I think if you permit, when I probably thread this later today, I'd like to use your graphic and comment as well as mine to set this up. Modeling can still be off quite a bit but it's improving on large scale events 7-10 days in advance. Just let me know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 NAEFS check is only 2 tenths of an inch along the coast and more OTS for the 16th-17th. That is caution to the wind for me as well. I need to wait for the 12z cycle before threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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