January 2024

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The cutter on the 13th issues on brutally cold air for the country 

That system may be even more powerful than Tuesday's storm 

[bluewave]

I can’t even remember any La Niña January when we had 2 Great Lakes cutters of 976 mb or lower only 3 days apart. 
 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can’t even remember any La Niña January when we had 2 Great Lakes cutters of 976 mb or lower only 3 days apart. 
 

This will take a toll on beaches, rivers, trees, etc. Everything is completely saturated. 

[wdrag]

Friday night-Saturday morning: No thread til I can get organized time here at home but certain will get one going by Wednesday.  Right now I think we should concentrate on this Tuesday night's 9 hour excessive rain-wind.  it looks likely that Poconos-I84 high terrain late Friday get a shot of snow-sleet, then heavy rain and possible wind damage Friday night which continues the flood threat in the northeast. Gusty winds 40-55 MPH in the wake of the storm over the entire northeast USA lingers through this coming weekend. Another tough event that impacts all of us in some way..either flooding or power.

 

Next Monday night-Tuesday (1/15-16) looks like a period of snow or a snow storm for at least I95 west but no thread yet.  Uncertainty.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This will take a toll on beaches, rivers, trees, etc. Everything is completely saturated. 

These are going to be two very high impact events for the region only a few days apart. The flood risk will be raised for several reasons. First, we are coming off one of the wettest years and Decembers on record. Second, areas that got heavy snow  accumulations could experience rapid snow  melting leading to flash floods. Then we have the high wind issues with the very tight gradient and strong LLJ.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can’t even remember any La Niña January when we had 2 Great Lakes cutters of 976 mb or lower only 3 days apart. 
 

You’re not kidding. The other unbelievable anomaly is a very strong MJO wave going 4-5-6 during one of the strongest Nino’s in the last 44 years….

[North and West]

This will take a toll on beaches, rivers, trees, etc. Everything is completely saturated. 

oh my god, it’s long island, most of the forum doesn’t even live there…


.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You’re not kidding. The other unbelievable anomaly is a very strong MJO wave going 4-5-6 during one of the strongest Nino’s in the last 44 years….

Isn’t that what happened in 2015-16? Didn’t the wave stall in one of the right side phases at high amplitude? 

I don’t really have a good grasp on MJO tendencies between Niña/Niño, just seems like a continuation of the MJO wanting to hang out and amplify in phases that can be counterproductive for us. 

[wdrag]

Good morning again,

 

I keep thinking about what is ahead.

 

Let me see what CPC does at 330PM, but pretty sure at that time I will post a dual storm thread 12-13 (similar to tomorrow) and then the colder wintry one for the 16th.  It's that one that possibly shuts off major storms here for a week or 10 days to get us below normal temps and freeze up the river flows.  I need more time and am off line til at least 1030. Thanks, Walt

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You’re not kidding. The other unbelievable anomaly is a very strong MJO wave going 4-5-6 during one of the strongest Nino’s in the last 44 years….

Olr maps still don’t show this strong wave in 4-5-6….

 

lots of dry air in those phases 

[SACRUS]

Down to 30 no 38 and clear.  Calm before the storm(s). Tue - Wed rain  -2 - 4 inches /winds. Then Fr- - Sat more heav rains and winds.  Arctic dump out west bleeds east by 1/15 in the wake of the storm and potential first fully frozen precip next week 1/16 - 1/23.

 

Models flagging the 1/17 period.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:70 (1998)
NYC: 65 (1998)
LGA: 64 (2008)


Lows:

 

EWR: 3 (1970)
NYC: 2 (1968)
LGA:  3 (1968)

 

Historical:

 

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1973 - A severe icestorm struck Atlanta GA. The storm paralyzed the city closing schools and businesses, and damage from the storm was estimated at 25 million dollars. One to four inches of ice coated northern Georgia leaving 300,000 persons without electricity for up to a week. Between 7 PM and 9 PM on the 7th, 2.27 inches (liquid content) of freezing rain, sleet and snow coated Atlanta, as the temperature hovered at 32 degrees. (7th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm moving out of the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains Region produced 14 inches of snow at Red River NM, and 17 inches in the Wolf Creek ski area of Colorado. Wichita KS was blanketed with seven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the northeastern U.S., with up to ten inches reported in southern New Jersey. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds and bitterly cold temperatures prevailed in the north central U.S. Winds in the Great Lakes Region gusted to 58 mph at Chicago IL, and reached 63 mph at Niagara Falls NY. Squalls in western New York State produced 20 inches of snow at Barnes Corners and Lowville. Snow squalls in Upper Michigan produced 26 inches around Keweenaw. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - High winds plagued the northwestern U.S., with the state of Oregon hardest hit. Two persons were killed in Oregon, and nine others were injured, and the high winds downed fifty-five million board feet of timber, valued at more than twenty million dollars. Winds gusted to 90 mph near Pinehurst ID, and wind gusts reached 96 mph at Stevenson WA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2019: An unusual January tornado impacted Cortland, Ohio, during the mid-morning hours. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east. The tornado brought down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path. 

[psv88]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

oh my god, it’s long island, most of the forum doesn’t even live there…


.

8 million people live on Long Island…only 9 million live in the entire state of NJ. It’s a high impact event for millions of people. 

[SACRUS]

 

28 years ago

The Blizzard of 96

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/the-blizzard-of-96-in-retrospect-25-years-later

 

 

https://nj1015.com/the-blizzard-of-96-revisited-snow-totals-for-every-nj-county/

 

https://abc7ny.com/blizzard-of-1996-nyc-weather-ewn-vault-96/5845526/

[uofmiami]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

8 million people live on Long Island…only 9 million live in the entire state of NJ. It’s a high impact event for millions of people. 

3 mil if you count LI as Nassau and Suffolk counties only. Many don’t think Queens & Kings counties when talking about LI. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You’re not kidding. The other unbelievable anomaly is a very strong MJO wave going 4-5-6 during one of the strongest Nino’s in the last 44 years….

Record SSTs leading to record rainfall across those regions.

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Olr maps still don’t show this strong wave in 4-5-6….

 

lots of dry air in those phases 

 

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

3 mil if you count LI as Nassau and Suffolk counties only. Many don’t think Queens & Kings counties when talking about LI. 

From a weather perspective both Brooklyn and queens have shorelines susceptible to severe coastal flooding and often get the same high winds as Nassau and Suffolk. JFK often gusts just as high as the ASOS sites on the island. Southern queens and Brooklyn also suffered severe flooding in sandy, etc. 

 

so for weather purposes Brooklyn and queens are often lumped in with the island 

[donsutherland1]

The pattern remains active following the region's first winter storm Saturday and Sunday.

January 9-10, 2024:
A severe rain and wind storm will affect the region later Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds could gust past 60 mph. A general 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts of 4" seems likely. River and coastal flooding is likely. Trees could be uprooted. Significant beach erosion is also likely. Temperatures will likely surge well into the 50s in New York City and Newark and possibly approach or reach 60° in Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC.

January 12-13, 2024:
Another high confidence event. There is strong model support for a very deep storm to cut to the Great Lakes. Mild temperatures, gusty southeast winds, and heavy rainfall (possibly 1"-2") appear likely.

January 16-18, 2024:
Low confidence. The 1/8 0z ECMWF shows a significant snowstorm for the region. There will be strong blocking at the time, though the NAO will be rising fast. Arctic air will be present in at least the central United States. Such developments have coincided with snowfalls before.  The GGEM and GFS aren't showing a similar storm for this timeframe.  Therefore, a quieter scenario featuring little more than an Arctic frontal passage on or around January 15th or 16th followed by generally dry conditions is also on the table.

If there were a shortwave that could impact the region, what might it look like, especially if it were cold enough for snow?

Filtering for teleconnections (AO -3.5 to -1.5, NAO-, and PNA+ as currently forecast by the GEFS), there were 9 storms that brought 2" or more snow to at least one of the following cities during January 5-25, 1950-2023: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or Washington, DC.  Here's how those cities fared for those storms:

Boston: 2" or more: 67%; 4" or more: 44%; 6" or more: 11%
New York City: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11%
Philadelphia: 2" or more: 33%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11%
Washington, DC: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11%

The 6"+ storm was the January 1996 blizzard.

It should be noted that there are many cases where there were no storms for the filtered teleconnections. So, there is no assurance that the period of blocking will lead to anything, much less a significant storm. That's far out in the extended range where model skill is low, so one can't rule out either the big ECMWF idea or the non-storm GFS/GGEM solutions.

For now, there's a window of possible opportunity, as hinted at by the 0z ECMWF. The evolution of ensemble solutions will provide more insight in coming days.

[the_other_guy]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

From a weather perspective both Brooklyn and queens have shorelines susceptible to severe coastal flooding and often get the same high winds as Nassau and Suffolk. JFK often gusts just as high as the ASOS sites on the island. Southern queens and Brooklyn also suffered severe flooding in sandy, etc. 

 

so for weather purposes Brooklyn and queens are often lumped in with the island 

Per the the United States Supreme Court, Brooklyn and Queens are not part of Long Island. Long Island is its own geographic area beginning at the Queens border.

 

As for the storm, I love all the uncertainty around a few inches of snow, and all the absolute certainty when it comes to a rainstorm in the same timeframe from storm start.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

On 12/31/2023 at 8:02 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Week ahead numbers:

If the above guidance is accurate, the long-awaited pattern change will arrive largely on schedule for the first week of January. The January 1-7 period will be the coldest 7-day period so far this winter. Severe cold remains unlikely.

There will also be the prospect of snowfall, especially as the period closes. From this far out, even if a Pacific trough results in the potential 1/7-8 storm tracking toward the Great Lakes, prospects for at least a measurable snowfall are higher than they have been this winter on a regionwide basis.

Final January 1-7, 2024 Numbers:

Temperatures were modestly warmer than normal but somewhat cooler than the NBE/ECMWF weekly forecast. Central Park received its first measurable snowfall of the season on January 6th, which was tied with 1891-92 for the 13th latest on record. The record was set last winter with the first measurable snow falling on February 1st.

[North and West]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

8 million people live on Long Island…only 9 million live in the entire state of NJ. It’s a high impact event for millions of people. 

You know I jest, right? 

Now, I just need to ensure that my log cabin along the 287 trail is secure and mother has acquired provisions for the harsh winter prior to this gale. 

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

You know I jest, right? 

Now, I just need to ensure that my log cabin along the 287 trail is secure and mother has acquired provisions for the harsh winter prior to this gale. 

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

JFC the New England subforum is larger than ours and they don’t argue about micro regions. Just let it be. 

[North and West]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

we really do have five (IMO) subsections with it's own specific climatology, and like this weekend showed, they don't always have similar conditions:

1. Praise be Long Island
2. Ehmergerd, the City
3. Down the Shore Everything's All Right
4. Country Bumpkins in the Hudson Valley and Sussex County
5. Pioneer life in NNJ

I did not include Central New Jersey because Central New Jersey is a social construct and not a real place.

[North and West]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

JFC the New England subforum is larger than ours and they don’t argue about micro regions. Just let it be. 

Yes, but we're concurrently both better and yet somehow more awful . 

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, Nibor said:

JFC the New England subforum is larger than ours and they don’t argue about micro regions. Just let it be. 

Are you kidding. That forum is a shit show lol. This forum much more civil and respectful 

[North and West]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Are you kidding. That forum is a shit show lol. This forum much more civil and respectful 

If this is civil and respectful...

[psv88]

22 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

There would be like 4 posters in that forum haha. I think the forum pretty well balanced between NJ and LI. If anything the city is under represented

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

There's a NW/interior thread