Rjay Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Good lord 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Good lord Gefs took another step today towards the eps. Looks like p3 response being enhanced by the decaying block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gefs took another step today towards the eps. Looks like p3 response being enhanced by the decaying block 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The period of quiet weather is coming to an end. The region will be impacted by a series of storms over the next seven days. Tomorrow will be increasingly cloudy and cold. Snow and/or mixed precipitation will overspread the region during the afternoon into the evening. Precipitation will quickly become all rain along the coast. Precipitation will end on Sunday possibly as light snow or snow showers. The storm will likely bring a coating to Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island, a slushy inch to Central Park, and up to 2" in the Bronx. 3"-6" of snow will fall well north and west of New York City. Following the region's first winter storm, a severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds, and possibly significant coastal flooding. Temperatures could surge toward or into the 50s. Late next week, a genuine Arctic air mass will likely begin pushing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could try to come eastward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was -6.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.595 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 3 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.301 (RMM). The January 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.276(RMM). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Records: Highs: EWR: 66 (1993) NYC: 64 (1993) LGA: 65 (1950) Lows: EWR: 8 (1996) NYC: -4 1904) LGA: 9 (1968) Historical: 1835 - It was a record cold morning in the eastern U.S. The mercury at the Yale Campus in New Haven CT plunged to 23 degrees below zero, and reached 40 below in the Berkshire Hills of Connecticut. (David Ludlum) 1880: Snow began falling in Seattle, Washington, and would continue for much of the week. When it was over, more than 5 feet of snow was recorded. 1884: One of only two days in history during which the temperature at Louisville, Kentucky, never rose above zero. The low was 20 degrees below, with a high of 1 below zero. 1888: Snowfall amounts of 3.5 to 5 inches fell over Sacramento, California. The heaviest snow in recent history was two inches on February 4-5th in 1976. Click the link for a newspaper article from the Sacramento Daily Union, published on Jan 6th, 1892: From the History of Fayetteville, Georgia, "Another traumatic event occurred in Fayetteville on the evening of January 5, 1892, about six o'clock in the evening. A terrible tornado or cyclone struck the town of Fayetteville just as many had sat down for dinner. The storm killed three people and injured many more as its raging force destroyed numerous residences, outbuildings, and structures, including the academy, as well as killing abundant livestock. The event was written about as far away as Savannah." 1904 - Bitterly cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Morning lows of -42 degrees at Smethport PA and -34 at River Vale NJ established state records. (The Weather Channel) 1913 - The temperature at the east portal to Strawberry Tunnel reached 50 degrees below zero to tie the record established at Woodruff on February 6, 1899. (David Ludlum) 1962: Two tornadoes, about 100 yards apart and each making paths about 100 yards wide, followed parallel paths from southeast to northwest through the edge of the Crestview, Florida's residential area. These tornadoes killed one and injured 30 others. 1982 - A three day rainstorm in the San Francisco area finally came to an end. Marin County and Cruz County were drenched with up to 25 inches of rain, and the Sierra Nevada Range was buried under four to eight feet of snow. The storm claimed at least 36 lives, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. (Storm Data) 1987 - A massive winter storm spread heavy snow from the southwestern U.S. into the Rockies. In Utah, the Alta ski resort reported a storm total of 42 inches of snow. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Albuquerque NM. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms helped produce heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Snow fell at the rate of four to five inches per hour, and snowfall totals ranged up to 69 inches at Highmarket NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A strong Pacific cold front produced heavy snow and high winds in Nevada. Winds gusted to 80 mph north of Reno, while up to two feet of snow blanketed the Lake Tahoe ski area. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Central Gulf Coast Region. New Orleans, LA, was drenched with 4.05 inches of rain in 24 hours. An overnight storm blanketed the mountains of northern Utah with up to eleven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Gefs took another step today towards the eps. Looks like p3 response being enhanced by the decaying block What does this mean for simple country folk such as myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 23 here right now. Would be a perfect winter evening just prior to a solid snowstorm. One day. Keep the faith gentlemen, we have a ways to go. And congrats and good luck to the northern crew that’s going to get something from this. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 no thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Cmc 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc Euro had this back at 12z. It was further inland with its track but a big hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: Euro had this back at 12z. It was further inland with its track but a big hit. Cmc has another storm which would be a Miller B at 240. Pattern is loaded on both models with a huge block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Gfs is loaded also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc has another storm which would be a Miller B at 240. Pattern is loaded on both models with a huge block. 4 to 8" of liquid equivalent in the next 10 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Cmc has another storm which would be a Miller B at 240. Pattern is loaded on both models with a huge block. Maybe after this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 11 hours ago, Rjay said: Good lord We should get a window there as the most interesting part of that is the ridge poking up in the Rockies before the pattern weakens after the 20th. But the one risk is that it only looks like around a 5 day period. If we have a potential event which misses for some reason, we may not get another chance before the more hostile pattern returns. But it least that would be the best 500 mb look we had in a while whatever happens. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: We should get a window there as the most interesting part of that is the ridge poking up in the Rockies before the pattern weakens after the 20th. But the one risk is that it only looks like around a 5 day period. If we have a potential event which misses for some reason, we may not get another chance before the more hostile pattern returns. But it least that would be the best 500 mb look we had in a while whatever happens. Looks like we will have two chances 16/17 and around the 20th. The block decaying and p3 giving us a window of opportunity 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Allsnow said: Looks like we will have two chances 16/17 and around the 20th. The block decaying and p3 giving us a window of opportunity I buy that. Then things probably get more hostile until February. MJO looks to swing through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: We should get a window there as the most interesting part of that is the ridge poking up in the Rockies before the pattern weakens after the 20th. But the one risk is that it only looks like around a 5 day period. If we have a potential event which misses for some reason, we may not get another chance before the more hostile pattern returns. But it least that would be the best 500 mb look we had in a while whatever happens. Agree. The favorable period looks to be 1/15-1/21 then hostile forcing takes over and we see another round of unfavorable PAC/PAC jet extension 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: We should get a window there as the most interesting part of that is the ridge poking up in the Rockies before the pattern weakens after the 20th. But the one risk is that it only looks like around a 5 day period. If we have a potential event which misses for some reason, we may not get another chance before the more hostile pattern returns. But it least that would be the best 500 mb look we had in a while whatever happens. I thought our best part for snow and cold was supposed to start around the 20th? What happened to that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree. The favorable period looks to be 1/15-1/21 then hostile forcing takes over and we see another round of unfavorable PAC/PAC jet extension and then the much more favorable pattern which all the long range forecasters were talking about commences in early February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 No plans for a 13th snow event post, though it looks like I84 corridor can do decent, but not the city. 715A/6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I thought our best part for snow and cold was supposed to start around the 20th? What happened to that? The end of January into February is highlighted by many for winter to turn around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Down to 21 now to 25. Snow to rain here. Loads of rain Tue-Wed. Arctic dumps west then bleeds east 1/17 - 1/25. Believe the winter will be made or broke by that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Records: Highs: EWR: 72 (2007) NYC: 72 (2007) LGA: 72 (2007) Lows: EWR: 6 (2018) NYC: -2 (1896) LGA: 8 (2018) Historical: 1880 - Seattle, WA, was in the midst of their worst snowstorm of record. Hundreds of barns were destroyed, and transportation was brought to a standstill, as the storm left the city buried under four feet of snow. (David Ludlum) 1884 - The temperature dipped to one degree below zero at Atlanta, GA. It marked the final day of a severe arctic outbreak in the South and Midwest. (David Ludlum) 1886: The "Great Blizzard of 1886" struck the Midwest with high winds, subzero temperatures, and heavy snowfall. These conditions caused as many as 100 deaths, and 80% of the cattle in Kansas perished. 1987 - A storm moving across the western U.S. spread heavy snow into the Central Rockies. Casper WY received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours, a January record for that location. Big Piney WY reported 17 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - It was a bad day for chickens. Heavy snow in Arkansas, with totals ranging up to 16 inches at Heber Springs, claimed the lives of 3.5 million chickens, and snow and ice up to three inches thick claimed the lives of another 1.75 million chickens in north central Texas. Up to 18 inches of snow blanketed Oklahoma, with Oklahoma City reporting a record 12 inches of snow in 24 hours. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A "bonafide blizzard" ripped through south central and southeastern Idaho. Strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at the Fort Hall Indian Reservation, whipped the snow into drifts five feet high, and produced wind chill readings as cold as 35 degrees below zero. The blizzard prompted an Idaho Falls air controller to remark that "the snow is blowing so hard you can't see the fog".(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast. Winds at Astoria OR gusted to 65 mph. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Miami with a reading of 86 degrees. The hot spot in the nation was West Palm Beach with a high of 87 degrees. (National Weather Summary) 1996: A severe nor'easter paralyzed the East Coast from January 6 to the 8. In Washington D.C., this storm is also known as the "Great Furlough Storm" because it occurred during the 1996 federal government shutdown. Snowfall amounts from this event include 47 inches in Big Meadows, Virginia; 30.7" in Philadelphia; 27.8" in Newark; 24.6" at the Dulles International Airport; 24.2" in Trenton; 24" in Providence; 22.5" in Baltimore; 18.2" in Boston; 17.1" in D.C.; and 9.6" in Pittsburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 72 (2007) NYC: 72 (2007) LGA: 72 (2007) Lows: EWR: 6 (2018) NYC: -2 (1896) LGA: 8 (2018) Historical: 1880 - Seattle, WA, was in the midst of their worst snowstorm of record. Hundreds of barns were destroyed, and transportation was brought to a standstill, as the storm left the city buried under four feet of snow. (David Ludlum) 1884 - The temperature dipped to one degree below zero at Atlanta, GA. It marked the final day of a severe arctic outbreak in the South and Midwest. (David Ludlum) 1886: The "Great Blizzard of 1886" struck the Midwest with high winds, subzero temperatures, and heavy snowfall. These conditions caused as many as 100 deaths, and 80% of the cattle in Kansas perished. 1987 - A storm moving across the western U.S. spread heavy snow into the Central Rockies. Casper WY received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours, a January record for that location. Big Piney WY reported 17 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - It was a bad day for chickens. Heavy snow in Arkansas, with totals ranging up to 16 inches at Heber Springs, claimed the lives of 3.5 million chickens, and snow and ice up to three inches thick claimed the lives of another 1.75 million chickens in north central Texas. Up to 18 inches of snow blanketed Oklahoma, with Oklahoma City reporting a record 12 inches of snow in 24 hours. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A "bonafide blizzard" ripped through south central and southeastern Idaho. Strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at the Fort Hall Indian Reservation, whipped the snow into drifts five feet high, and produced wind chill readings as cold as 35 degrees below zero. The blizzard prompted an Idaho Falls air controller to remark that "the snow is blowing so hard you can't see the fog".(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast. Winds at Astoria OR gusted to 65 mph. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Miami with a reading of 86 degrees. The hot spot in the nation was West Palm Beach with a high of 87 degrees. (National Weather Summary) 1996: A severe nor'easter paralyzed the East Coast from January 6 to the 8. In Washington D.C., this storm is also known as the "Great Furlough Storm" because it occurred during the 1996 federal government shutdown. Snowfall amounts from this event include 47 inches in Big Meadows, Virginia; 30.7" in Philadelphia; 27.8" in Newark; 24.6" at the Dulles International Airport; 24.2" in Trenton; 24" in Providence; 22.5" in Baltimore; 18.2" in Boston; 17.1" in D.C.; and 9.6" in Pittsburgh. wow both 2007 and 2018 were historic. in 2007 we had historic 70s heat in January and in 2018 we went from single digit cold in January to near 80 degree historic heat in February and then to historic snow and cold in March and April! and of course this is the day of the historic January 1996 blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Still on board here in western MA for 1st snowfall of the year. Current temp here 22F, back in HPN 27F URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 253 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 hours ago, bluewave said: We should get a window there as the most interesting part of that is the ridge poking up in the Rockies before the pattern weakens after the 20th. But the one risk is that it only looks like around a 5 day period. If we have a potential event which misses for some reason, we may not get another chance before the more hostile pattern returns. But it least that would be the best 500 mb look we had in a while whatever happens. This is a pretty strong wave - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is a pretty strong wave - Strongest on record through phase 4 during such a strong El Niño in January. That’s why I am uncertain how much we can cash in on any short 3-5 day windows. So much amplitude through the Maritime Continent phases would be a challenge. Very uncertain how much lagged phase 3 response before the MJO warmer phase 4 pattern begins to show up. We could definitely use some luck. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Strongest on record through phase 4 during such a strong El Niño in January. That’s why I am uncertain how much we can cash in on any short 3-5 day windows. So much amplitude through the Maritime Continent phases would be a challenge. Very uncertain how much lagged phase 3 response before the MJO warmer phase 4 pattern begins to show up. We could definitely use some luck. I doubt we see p8 in February if that wave gets so strong in 4-7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I doubt we see p8 in February if that wave gets so strong in 4-7 Would be tail end if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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