Eduardo Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 3:39 PM, bluewave said: No guarantees especially if we stall out in 7 instead preceding to 8. But hoping for at least one solid 8 this winter. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:02 PM, Allsnow said: I like the potential after the 15th with the block moving west as it decays and the ridge out west improves. Definitely some potential Expand exactly. the close the shades stuff is ridiculous with ensembles agreeing on a 2-3 sigma -NAO combined with an Alaskan ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 3:47 PM, brooklynwx99 said: exactly. the close the shades stuff is ridiculous with ensembles agreeing on a 2-3 sigma -NAO combined with an Alaskan ridge Expand Yeah, waiting for mjo 8 in late February is hopeful but there is potential mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:03 PM, Allsnow said: Yeah, waiting for mjo 8 in late February is hopeful but there is potential mid month Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:25 PM, EastonSN+ said: Could work out a well, all those suppressed snowstorms of the past may be monster hits now. Also the records we have now are likely a combination of a normal warm pattern (decadal RNA now) and GW. If we get back into a general cooler pattern we can be in decent shape. For me as long as we keep seeing NC, Virginia and the Delmarva get snowstorms like they have been over the past few years we have tread on the tires. Expand But surpressed why? Because of a cold high? That is normally one of the features you need, well placed. Marginal "seasonable" air is not going to cut it, not around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 It'll be good to get some significant cold air in here for an extended period of time in mid January. Hopefully that will give the coast a better shot at a snowstorm. Looks encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:35 PM, bluewave said: Any cold looks pretty transient before we warm up again. Expand 06z gefs said it’s not 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 @bluewave you don’t think with mjo p3 and the west base block we have a opportunity mid month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:09 PM, Dark Star said: But surpressed why? Because of a cold high? That is normally one of the features you need, well placed. Marginal "seasonable" air is not going to cut it, not around here... Expand Right if it was frigid and 20 degrees with suppression, we may be 22 now cause of GW and on the northern edge of the snowfall (think SE ridge help). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:45 PM, bluewave said: Not sure the 3 influence will last long enough before we get to 4 again. Expand So basically no winter this year ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 3:47 PM, brooklynwx99 said: exactly. the close the shades stuff is ridiculous with ensembles agreeing on a 2-3 sigma -NAO combined with an Alaskan ridge Expand Also massive west coast trough and signs SE ridge links to NAO domain but I guess we ignore the negatives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 5:11 PM, qg_omega said: Also massive west coast trough and signs SE ridge links to NAO domain but I guess we ignore the negatives Expand I see that next week but nothing imo has that look after the 15th. Second week of January was always supposed to be a risk for cutters 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Kudos to the eps and geps for sniffing out the p3 response week 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:56 PM, EastonSN+ said: Right if it was frigid and 20 degrees with suppression, we may be 22 now cause of GW and on the northern edge of the snowfall (think SE ridge help). Expand You need cold air. For NYC you need moisture, cold air and luck for snow. We can't have it both ways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Better hope this works out on Saturday. Too much warmth; cold too transient looking ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:36 PM, Allsnow said: 06z gefs said it’s not Expand GFS Ens looks like it says seasonable in NYC metro area, and warmer the farther north you go, therefore, no sustained cold air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:09 PM, Allsnow said: Expand How so, with no true arctic air in Canada, except for maybe a small wedge of seasonable air along a narrow stretch just west of Hudson Bay? I think if we start looking at the present physical data instead of the models, we might actually see what is happening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:25 PM, EastonSN+ said: Could work out a well, all those suppressed snowstorms of the past may be monster hits now. Also the records we have now are likely a combination of a normal warm pattern (decadal RNA now) and GW. If we get back into a general cooler pattern we can be in decent shape. For me as long as we keep seeing NC, Virginia and the Delmarva get snowstorms like they have been over the past few years we have tread on the tires. Expand You are looking at interior south vs UHI Coastal NYC. Not linear. Do not fool yourself with a flawed equation to get an illogical hypothesis. I have seen that brown line run down the backbone of the Delmarva many times from 37000 feet. Look at Norfolk. That is your future. Heck, it may be your present. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Unless we get some arctic air in here January will easily be another +5 departure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 5:59 PM, Dark Star said: You need cold air. For NYC you need moisture, cold air and luck for snow. We can't have it both ways. Expand I think we are generally on the same page, difference is I see this current 5 year stretch as we are in a decadal RNA regime with a global warming background raising our temps by say whatever the current global departure is. 2000 through 2018 with a decadal PNA would still work. Also, 1996 where we were snowing at 18 degrees may be 21 degrees and snowing. Yes, we will lose our 33 and snow from 1972, but the blizzard of 1978 would still be snow IMO and maybe more given the added moisture. Where my view differs than some is I do not think our overall weather structure changed i.e. I do not think we are going to be in a mostly static RNA from here on our. I believe the same patterns persist just increasingly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:06 PM, Dark Star said: I think if we start looking at the present physical data instead of the models, we might actually see what is happening? Expand Meteorology rather than modelology? Good luck with that. It seems most people would rather spend twice as much time analyzing models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Still seems that we cannot get much in the way of arctic air here. Dumps out west and then moderates as it heads east.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 7:49 PM, Brian5671 said: Still seems that we cannot get much in the way of arctic air here. Dumps out west and then moderates as it heads east....I wonder why it’s been like that. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 9:12 PM, North and West said: I wonder why it’s been like that. . Expand Decadal RNA pattern we are currently in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Generally dry weather will continue through tomorrow. Afterward, a series of storms will impact the region. A storm will bring measurable snowfall to parts of the region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. This appears to be the kind of storm that could bring a general 1" to perhaps 3" of slushy snow to New York City (lowest amounts in Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island and highest amounts in the Bronx) with 3"-6" of snow well north and west of New York City. The probability of a significant (6" or greater) snowfall in Boston has increased. There remains a degree of uncertainty in coastal regions, including the New York City area. Following the region's first winter storm, a major storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Temperatures could surge toward or into the 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was -5.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.696 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.276 (RMM). The January 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.959 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 5, 2024 Share Posted January 5, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 10:55 PM, EastonSN+ said: Decadal RNA pattern we are currently in. Expand No real arctic air out west. Coldest air is in a wedge north of Michigan, just West of Hudson Bay. There is no continuous feed of arctic air this side of the north pole. You don't need any models to see that. just look at the real time physical data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 5, 2024 Share Posted January 5, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 3:47 PM, brooklynwx99 said: exactly. the close the shades stuff is ridiculous with ensembles agreeing on a 2-3 sigma -NAO combined with an Alaskan ridge Expand Where is the arctic air? So far, there is none this side of the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 5, 2024 Share Posted January 5, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:24 PM, winterwx21 said: It'll be good to get some significant cold air in here for an extended period of time in mid January. Hopefully that will give the coast a better shot at a snowstorm. Looks encouraging. Expand and where is the cold air coming from? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2024 Share Posted January 5, 2024 On 1/5/2024 at 12:05 AM, Dark Star said: and where is the cold air coming from? Expand Is this a rhetorical question? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2024 Share Posted January 5, 2024 On 1/5/2024 at 12:05 AM, Dark Star said: and where is the cold air coming from? Expand Canada 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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