January 2024

[Allsnow]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I just hope we can eventually see some Pacific improvement so the -NAO doesn’t go to waste. 

Happy hour gold at the end of the gfs lol. 

[psv88]

35 now. Maybe tonight is the night we freeze 

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

35 now. Maybe tonight is the night we freeze 

Finally up here, after a low of 32 this morning, below freezing now at 31. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Happy hour gold at the end of the gfs lol. 

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Happy hour gold at the end of the gfs lol. 

Sure it’s the 384 GFS, but taken verbatim that’s a HECS pattern right there.

[MJO812]

Arctic hounds on the gfs in the long range 

[Allsnow]

27 degrees currently. First time below freezing in 2 weeks.

[MJO812]

31 here

[LibertyBell]

On 12/29/2023 at 12:09 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

There’s a resurgent volcanic conduit in the middle where activity has shifted (this happens after a magma chamber disintegrates in a catastrophic eruption but the heat source stays active). The cataclysmic eruptions that formed the caldera were a long time ago. Not unlike Wizard island in Mazama. Going from memory I haven’t read into Batur in a while. But it’s an interesting potential analogue for what could happen to Agung in the future. Agung in the 60’s had a climate impacting VEI 5 with a lot of sulfur output. 

HTHH unfortunately was likely our statistical VEI 6 for the next couple decades at least, though that’s not ironclad. There’s a couple candidate systems for a larger eruption, but they could be hundreds of years from an event of that magnitude. Most of the big VEI 6 climate impactors have come out of nowhere, like Pinatubo that wasn’t even known to be volcanic until it seismically woke up (and geologists probed the nearby ground and saw evidence of recent enormous eruptions, oops - 1991 was actually on the smaller side of what that volcano can do), or Santa Maria in the early 1900’s that was inactive for thousands of years prior. 

and El Chichon! That was the largest of all of the recent ones.

[Allsnow]

29 NYC 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Arctic hounds on the gfs in the long range 

Why is snowman19 weenieing everyone? Not only are they talking about this in the ENSO thread too, this is what the models show and all our TV forecasters are saying the same thing.

[Allsnow]

Nice weenie run of the 06z gfs 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

2024 kicked off with benign weather. The temperature rose into the middle 40s as the clouds broke for a time.

The first week of January will likely feature generally near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures. Severe cold is unlikely. Some snow flurries and snow showers are possible Thursday morning.

There is the possibility that a significant storm could bring measurable snowfall to the region during January 7-8. Details remain to be worked out.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.98°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing.

The SOI was -2.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.779 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 30 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.047 (RMM). The December 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.993 (RMM).

 

Thanks Don, I've always wondered why very cold weather Thanksgiving week (after a mild November before that) often leads to our best winters.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 27 and should see some sun the next few days before we deal with the weekend system.

 

[Allsnow]

GEFS finally seeing the -nao west base Block that the eps/geps have 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 63 (1979)
NYC: 68 (1876)
LGA: 60 (2022)


Lows:

EWR: 7 (1968)
NYC:  2 (1918) * extreme from the prior month cold spell
LGA: 9 (1968)

Historical:

 

1910 - A great flood in Utah and Nevada washed out 100 miles of railroad between Salt Lake City UT and Los Angeles CA causing seven million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1949: A blizzard raged and brought heavy snow, strong winds, and cold temperatures to South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Nebraska.

 

1955: Hurricane Alice passed through the Islands of Saint Martin and Saba in the Caribbean Sea on this day. Alice, which developed on December 30, 1954, is the only known Atlantic hurricane to span two calendar years. 

1961 - The coldest temperature of record for the state of Hawaii was established with a reading of 14 degrees atop Haleakela Summit. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm moving up the Atlantic coast brought heavy snow and high winds to the northeastern U.S. Wind gusts reached 82 mph at Trenton NJ and Southwest Harbor in Maine. Snowfall totals ranged up to two feet at Salem NH and Waterboro ME. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - "Old Man Winter" took a siesta, with snow a scarcity across the nation. For the second day in a row Alamosa CO reported a record low of 31 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Strong and gusty winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the northern and central Rockies. Winds gusted to 71 mph at Colorado Springs CO and Livingston MT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The first winter storm of the new year and decade developed in the southwestern U.S., and blanketed the northern mountains of Utah with 12 to 23 inches of snow. Up to 22 inches of snow was reported in the Alta-Snowbird area. The storm brought Las Vegas NV their first measurable precipitation in four and a half months, since the 17th of August. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1994 - High winds buffeted the Northern Front Range of Colorado during the morning hours. Peak wind gusts included 105 mph atop Squaw Mountain near Idaho Springs and 89 mph at Fort Collins. A fast moving "Alberta Clipper" brought up to six inches of snow to Iowa. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Snowy Range Mountains in southeastern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1999: A powerful winter storm developed over the Texas panhandle and moved northeast through the Missouri bootheel and then north northeast through eastern Illinois and into Michigan. Snow began accumulating in east-central Illinois and areas south of Chicago during the early evening hours of New Year's Day and overspread the city and north suburbs by midnight. Snow continued through the night and much of the day Saturday, January 2. The heaviest snow fell during the daytime hours Saturday and tapered off by late afternoon or early evening and ended by late evening. Northeast winds were 20 to 30 mph with a few higher gusts during the day Saturday. Winds gusted to over 50 mph along the Lake Michigan shoreline. The strong wind coming off the lake enhanced snowfall totals within about 10 miles of the lake. Snowfall was generally 9 to 15 inches over north central and east central Illinois and in the Chicago suburbs. Snowfall in Chicago and the north suburbs in Lake County was 18 to 22 inches. Winds subsided Saturday evening as the storm center passed over southern Lake Michigan. Then strong northwest winds developed Sunday, causing considerable blowing and drifting and hampering clean-up efforts.

1999: The 21.6 inches at O'hare, the official observing site for Chicago, was the second greatest storm total snowfall. The record was 23.0 inches January 26-27, 1967. Of the 21.6 inches, 18.6 fell on January 2, setting a record for the most snowfall on a calendar day. Other snowfall amounts included; Algonquin 14.0, Aurora 14.4, Barrington 18.0, Brookfield 15.1, Bourbonnais 14.0, Channahon 13.0, Chatsworth 17.0, Coal City 13.0, Compton 9.7, Crestwood 14.2, DeKalb 12.4, Dixon 16.4, Earlville 11.3, Fairbury 13.0, Geneva 13.0, Glenwood 16.0, Harvard 9.0, Lake Villa 17.9, LaGrange Park 15.0, Midway Airport 20.6, Mundelein 10.0, Naperville 11.0, Olympia Fields 15.8, Orland Park 13.8, Rochelle 9.6, Rockford 9.0, Streamwood 14.0, Willow Springs 12.0. The heavy snow and blowing snow caused hazardous travel. Lake Shore Drive was closed down for the first time ever. State, county, and local road crews worked around the clock. The City of Chicago Department of Streets and Sanitation spent 12 million dollars on snow removal efforts. Three hundred flights were canceled at O'Hare and Midway airports.

 

2006: Six tornadoes impacted central and northern Georgia. The tornadoes were rated from F0 to F3.

2008 - The second day of 2008 brought snow to areas of Indiana, Ohio and the Appalachians through the Northeastern United States. Parts of New England received the heaviest amounts, with some areas receiving storm totals of over 15 inches (38 cm) in several areas of central and eastern Maine. (NCDC)

 

2017: 36 confirmed tornadoes impacted the Deep South from Louisiana to Georgia. Many of the tornadoes came from line segments of storms known as quasi-linear convective systems. A larger convective system also created numerous wind damage reports, and in Alabama, four people died from straight-line winds.

[bluewave]

First time NYC didn’t drop below 35° between Christmas and New Years.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 25 to Jan 1	Missing Count
1	2024-01-01	35	0
2	2022-01-01	34	0
-	2016-01-01	34	0
-	1980-01-01	34	0
3	2007-01-01	33	0
-	1941-01-01	33	0
-	1908-01-01	33	0

[Allsnow]

Looks like the gefs will cave to the better pac idea of the eps/geps 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

27 degrees currently. First time below freezing in 2 weeks.

Hit 26 here, felt nice this morning. 

[Nibor]

Thin layer of ice on road puddles this morning. 

[bluewave]

You can see why the GEFS has a deeper trough in the West than the EPS. Much stronger MJO through 4. I know the EPS has issues with convection near the Maritime Continent related to the barrier effect. But  this is the most extreme MJO divergence I have ever see between the two models. 

 

[Allsnow]

Olr maps agree with the eps regarding the mjo 

[qg_omega]

CFS MJO looks like EPS which given the background is GFS makes me think the GEFS is wrong

[suzook]

12 hours ago, psv88 said:

35 now. Maybe tonight is the night we freeze 

I just moved south of Atlanta off the island. Funny thing down here, is it's been in the mid 20's at night, but warms to the mid 50's during the day. The mid 50's definitely feel a bit warmer though, I guess because the sun does feel a bit stronger. 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

I just moved south of Atlanta off the island. Funny thing down here, is it's been in the mid 20's at night, but warms to the mid 50's during the day. The mid 50's definitely feel a bit warmer though, I guess because the sun does feel a bit stronger. 

Very common on clear winter mornings. Get used to it. SE inland radiates very well! Much better than NYC metro

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

First time NYC didn’t drop below 35° between Christmas and New Years.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 25 to Jan 1	Missing Count
1	2024-01-01	35	0
2	2022-01-01	34	0
-	2016-01-01	34	0
-	1980-01-01	34	0
3	2007-01-01	33	0
-	1941-01-01	33	0
-	1908-01-01	33	0

wow even 2015 isn't on this list!

[psv88]

42 minutes ago, suzook said:

I just moved south of Atlanta off the island. Funny thing down here, is it's been in the mid 20's at night, but warms to the mid 50's during the day. The mid 50's definitely feel a bit warmer though, I guess because the sun does feel a bit stronger. 

I went to college at Emory, which is in Atlanta. That area radiates very well. Are you south of the airport?

[suzook]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

I went to college at Emory, which is in Atlanta. That area radiates very well. Are you south of the airport?

Yes, about 30 miles south 

[psv88]

52 minutes ago, suzook said:

Yes, about 30 miles south 

Oh wow, so like an hour south of the city. Check out Macon, cool town and has the allman brothers museum which I want to get to. 

[donsutherland1]

Afternoon thoughts:

Lengthy streaks during which Atlantic City, Baltimore, New York City, and Philadelphia have not seen 1" or more daily snowfall continue today. Today, the streak will reach 703 days at Atlantic City (2nd longest). The streaks will reach a record 688 days at New York City (Central Park), 703 days at Philadelphia, and 704 days at Baltimore. But there is some possibility that these streaks could be nearing their end in a number of these locations.

Although there are now early indications that a trough in the West will influence the track of a storm that will impact the region from late Saturday into Sunday, prospects for at least a measurable snowfall are higher than they have been this winter on a regionwide basis.

At present, a 1" to perhaps 3" snowfall still seems plausible for Baltimore, New York City, and Philadelphia. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing for much of the storm in those areas. Atlantic City will likely fall short of 1" daily snowfall, allowing its ongoing streak to continue to advance toward that City's record (715 days). There continue to be more downside risks than upside ones.

The two leading scenarios involve the storm's passing close enough to the coast to bring abundant warm air in along the coastal plain resulting in low snowfall amounts for the big cities. The other meaningful scenario involves the storm's taking a track farther south and east, allowing for a moderate snowfall even in the big cities. Taking into consideration the trough that will be anchored in the Southwest, a suppressed solution appears unlikely.  The timing of the storm is sufficiently far out that the models can have errors of 25-50 miles. Such an error could make the difference between little or no accumulating snow or a moderate snowstorm.