It's Always Sunny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Too much stock is going into "background state". We still get snow during La Nina winters people seemingly have forgot. I'm seeing El Nino signals of late. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 Good morning all! A quick post. I plan to start a thread for the period Jan 6-10, probably around 10AM. That will encourage all posts for the last half of January to stay in January and we can concentrate energy on what I think will occur between the 6th-10th. That general idea follows with one graphic. Ensemble support for 2-6" of qpf in that period is in agreement for base 2" in the NYC subforum. Where its snow its 4+ but on I95 and east, messy or just rain? But stormy for sure. Good thing tides are down. Wind will be involved. You may want to go back to the CPC hazards posted this past Friday. Looks pretty good to me. My base info: Our very warm December will soon be replaced by snow plowing and shoveling across much of the region along and just west of I95 into the Appalachians. I will set the driveway snow stakes this week (nw NJ) I expect renewed flooding in parts of eastern PA/NJ and possibly elsewhere in the northeast. When all is said and done by Wednesday night January 10, at least two inches of water equivalent precipiation will have fallen along the entire east coast with isolated 6 inches. This means that snowfalls next weekend and possibly at the start of the warmer storm of the 10th, will at least partially melt. Here's the EPS chance of 4+" for next Sunday. Blues are above 30%. I think this is a pretty good signal for 7 days in advance. Where it actually ends up?? CMCE is about the same. GEFS is lagging. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Too much stock is going into "background state". We still get snow during La Nina winters people seemingly have forgot. I'm seeing El Nino signals of late. December has been mostly an El Nino look. Southern tier of the U.S. not textbook but upper latitudes playing the part mostly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Same can be said for the jet stream: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Week ahead numbers: If the above guidance is accurate, the long-awaited pattern change will arrive largely on schedule for the first week of January. The January 1-7 period will be the coldest 7-day period so far this winter. Severe cold remains unlikely. There will also be the prospect of snowfall, especially as the period closes. From this far out, even if a Pacific trough results in the potential 1/7-8 storm tracking toward the Great Lakes, prospects for at least a measurable snowfall are higher than they have been this winter on a regionwide basis. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: We have chances this month which is all I can ask for at this point. I think NYC snowless streak will end this month if the h5 look is correct going into mid month Long range is looking better and better. Great to see especially during the peak of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Week ahead numbers: If the above guidance is accurate, the long-awaited pattern change will arrive largely on schedule for the first week of January. The January 1-7 period will be the coldest 7-day period so far this winter. Severe cold remains unlikely. There will also be the prospect of snowfall, especially as the period closes. From this far out, even if a Pacific trough results in the potential 1/7-8 storm tracking toward the Great Lakes, prospects for at least a measurable snowfall are higher than they have been this winter on a regionwide basis. Excellent stats Don... I'd like to add this to the thread... if its okay with you. Keeps perspective on I95. Right now, probably can't get thread out til 11A. Walt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, wdrag said: Excellent stats Don... I'd like to add this to the thread... if its okay with you. Keeps perspective on I95. Right now, probably can't get thread out til 11A. Walt Feel free to do so, Walt. Have a great New Year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Long range is looking better and better. Great to see especially during the peak of winter. Don’t look at the ext gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Don’t look at the ext gefs Grain of salt along with the euro weeklies . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It would just be bizarre because we're in a seemingly Nina background state but there's a strong Nino too. We're definitely not in a Nina-like background state 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Not to offend anyone but GIFs & YT video posts are annoying af...it pains me to waste my energy scrolling past them every time. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Good morning all! A quick post. I plan to start a thread for the period Jan 6-10, probably around 10AM. That will encourage all posts for the last half of January to stay in January and we can concentrate energy on what I think will occur between the 6th-10th. That general idea follows with one graphic. Ensemble support for 2-6" of qpf in that period is in agreement for base 2" in the NYC subforum. Where its snow its 4+ but on I95 and east, messy or just rain? But stormy for sure. Good thing tides are down. Wind will be involved. You may want to go back to the CPC hazards posted this past Friday. Looks pretty good to me. My base info: Our very warm December will soon be replaced by snow plowing and shoveling across much of the region along and just west of I95 into the Appalachians. I will set the driveway snow stakes this week (nw NJ) I expect renewed flooding in parts of eastern PA/NJ and possibly elsewhere in the northeast. When all is said and done by Wednesday night January 10, at least two inches of water equivalent precipiation will have fallen along the entire east coast with isolated 6 inches. This means that snowfalls next weekend and possibly at the start of the warmer storm of the 10th, will at least partially melt. Here's the EPS chance of 4+" for next Sunday. Blues are above 30%. I think this is a pretty good signal for 7 days in advance. Where it actually ends up?? CMCE is about the same. GEFS is lagging. Looking forward to the new thread. This period is at least something of interest and potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was discussed a ton in the MA forum the last year why it seems we now get an SER in patterns we never used to get it in before. Nobody really knows why I think 90% of the issue was the RNA strength and maybe more importantly, the actual position of the trough. I don't think the NAO failure was historic. In fact, through history we failed more often than not on snow chances (other than periods such as 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018). Therefore this type of failure had to have occured before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 storm more amped through GFS hour 165. hopefully this doesn't become another cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Huge interior NY and NJ hit along with SNE on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 That’s a solid High to the north would think someone will get a good hit with that feature 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The mere chance of snow next weekend is nice. Even if it rains on the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Huge interior NY and NJ hit along with SNE on the gfs long way to go - trended towards EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 verbatim 12z GFS crushes NNJ NYC SNE. gotta keep an eye on that north trend though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @bluewavehas presented research tying it to CC due to the West PAC warm pool. Agreed, it's more the overall pattern which favors an RNA regime over a SE ridge dominated setup (downstream effect). Once the oceanic thermal profiles change/alter locations and intensity (for example the rise and demise of the warm blob off the west coast driving the east based Neg EPO 13 through 15) we may be in better shape and re-establish a east coast trough dominant pattern. Big question is how long does the current profile last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: long way to go - trended towards EURO Cmc is a crush job for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12Z CMC solid MECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 CMC crushes NYC but the trend is clearly north. most models have light snow for the area Thursday night 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, cardinalland said: verbatim 12z GFS crushes NNJ NYC SNE. gotta keep an eye on that north trend though I'd prefer to see it more suppressed. Low hugs the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: CMC crushes NYC but the trend is clearly north. most models have light snow for the area Thursday night Agree we need it to shift south . Still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 Good morning, am constructing the Jan 6-10 thread... awaiting WPC D4-7 updated day shift snow prob graphics to attach along with their current D7 that now has 1.5" up to near Sandy Hook and also copying with permission I hope the Bluewave consecutive days with less than 2" of snow CP and the Don post on snow probs 1,2,4 for the various cities. I should have this ready for use, as poster desired. It will probably be loaded with actual reports as the two events progress. This then encourages posts prior to Jan 6, and after Jan 10 in the ongoing January thread. There will probably be another extensive event around Jan 13-14 but prefer to exclude form this thread which seems to be well handled by consensus in the ensembles. Hope to have ready by Noon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Agree we need it to shift south . Still time But we've seen this time and time again where the cmc is last to come north and then the storm ends up in Pittsburgh. I think all solutions are still on the table 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree we need it to shift south . Still time Question of the day is what will the EURO show in a couple of hours ? and don't forget all the ENSEMBLES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s a solid High to the north would think someone will get a good hit with that feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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