MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gefs bumped west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gefs bumped west. coastal NJ and eastern half of LI will get mixing IMO and if it bumps any further west NYC metro will too ...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Geps is also on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: coastal NJ and eastern half of LI will get mixing IMO and if it bumps any further west NYC metro will too ...... There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GEFS HR 180 HR 190 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about. Exactly. Something to track. Hopefully everyone sees some white. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, mannynyc said: We're so back. Just when we thought we were OUT the GFS pulls us back in ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Just when we thought we were OUT the GFS pulls us back in ! Nobody ever said it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about. This. I would take an inch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 no need for a late week thread 1/4 - 1/5 as of now as the 0Z Euro agrees with the GFS out to sea track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 looks like a rainstorm on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, kingbaus said: looks like a rainstorm on the euro yes Dr. NO spoils the party - until it comes on board confidence is low this far out IMO reason is the HP north of us is in the wrong position to feed cold enough air in closer to the coast track New England crew wins with this scenario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Low placement looks pretty good on the EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gfs slightly more amped but a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Pacific isn't good so you really want the 4th system to trend stronger, which in turn will lead to a better 50/50 for the following storm so it's not an inland runner. I would be surprised if this worked out for us. Pattern is not very good for snow. New England is in a much better spot. Still the key will be that 4th system. Perhaps the poor Pacific will allow that one to keep amplifying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pacific isn't good so you really want the 4th system to trend stronger, which in turn will lead to a better 50/50 for the following storm so it's not an inland runner. I would be surprised if this worked out for us. Pattern is not very good for snow. New England is in a much better spot. Uh ? PNA is fine right now. We also have a favorable NAO and AO. I would worry more about suppression than running inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Quite the shift in guidance since yesterday...synoptic feature to watch will be the timing of jet stream phasing across Baja California/NW Mexico. Earlier phasing-->deeper/more amplified trough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Looks like plenty of chances with cold around and -nao for January… snow mean for the eps. @bluewave what is causing this -nao? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like plenty of chances with cold around and -nao for January… Bluewave ain't encouraged and neither am I. Trough out west is a killer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I would be more worried about suppression than an inland runner here. the trough crashing in the west argues for a more progressive outcome, if anything the 50/50 is in a good spot too. HP over the top, it's definitely worth watching. flawed, but can produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Bluewave ain't encouraged and neither am I. Trough out west is a killer Okay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Okay. If it did produce it would be one of those oddball combinations which to be fair have been more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like plenty of chances with cold around and -nao for January… snow mean for the eps. @bluewave what is causing this -nao? looks like the -NAO is caused by wave breaking from the cutter on the 10th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: If it did produce it would be one of those oddball combinations which to be fair have been more frequent. We have chances this month which is all I can ask for at this point. I think NYC snowless streak will end this month if the h5 look is correct going into mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We have chances this month which is all I can ask for at this point. I think NYC snowless streak will end this month if the h5 look is correct going into mid month It would just be bizarre because we're in a seemingly Nina background state but there's a strong Nino too. It's like two wrongs do make it right in this instance. At least there's something to track I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The key with any of these long range snowfall maps is getting them to hold within 120 hrs and then under 72. Agreed. Just using the eps snow mean to illustrate potential snowfall for the area going into mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It would just be bizarre because we're in a seemingly Nina background state but there's a strong Nino too. It's like two wrongs do make it right in this instance. At least there's something to track I suppose i think we've pretty much gone full Nino at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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