MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gefs bumped west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 5:08 AM, MJO812 said: Gefs bumped west. Expand coastal NJ and eastern half of LI will get mixing IMO and if it bumps any further west NYC metro will too ...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Geps is also on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 5:11 AM, NEG NAO said: coastal NJ and eastern half of LI will get mixing IMO and if it bumps any further west NYC metro will too ...... Expand There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GEFS HR 180 HR 190 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 5:15 AM, jm1220 said: There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about. Expand Exactly. Something to track. Hopefully everyone sees some white. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 4:24 AM, mannynyc said: We're so back. Expand Just when we thought we were OUT the GFS pulls us back in ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 6:07 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: Just when we thought we were OUT the GFS pulls us back in ! Expand Nobody ever said it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 5:15 AM, jm1220 said: There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about. Expand This. I would take an inch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 no need for a late week thread 1/4 - 1/5 as of now as the 0Z Euro agrees with the GFS out to sea track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 looks like a rainstorm on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 6:42 AM, kingbaus said: looks like a rainstorm on the euro Expand yes Dr. NO spoils the party - until it comes on board confidence is low this far out IMO reason is the HP north of us is in the wrong position to feed cold enough air in closer to the coast track New England crew wins with this scenario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Low placement looks pretty good on the EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gfs slightly more amped but a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Pacific isn't good so you really want the 4th system to trend stronger, which in turn will lead to a better 50/50 for the following storm so it's not an inland runner. I would be surprised if this worked out for us. Pattern is not very good for snow. New England is in a much better spot. Still the key will be that 4th system. Perhaps the poor Pacific will allow that one to keep amplifying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 11:30 AM, SnoSki14 said: Pacific isn't good so you really want the 4th system to trend stronger, which in turn will lead to a better 50/50 for the following storm so it's not an inland runner. I would be surprised if this worked out for us. Pattern is not very good for snow. New England is in a much better spot. Expand Uh ? PNA is fine right now. We also have a favorable NAO and AO. I would worry more about suppression than running inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Quite the shift in guidance since yesterday...synoptic feature to watch will be the timing of jet stream phasing across Baja California/NW Mexico. Earlier phasing-->deeper/more amplified trough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Looks like plenty of chances with cold around and -nao for January… snow mean for the eps. @bluewave what is causing this -nao? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:11 PM, Allsnow said: Looks like plenty of chances with cold around and -nao for January… Expand Bluewave ain't encouraged and neither am I. Trough out west is a killer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I would be more worried about suppression than an inland runner here. the trough crashing in the west argues for a more progressive outcome, if anything the 50/50 is in a good spot too. HP over the top, it's definitely worth watching. flawed, but can produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:14 PM, SnoSki14 said: Bluewave ain't encouraged and neither am I. Trough out west is a killer Expand Okay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:16 PM, Allsnow said: Okay. Expand If it did produce it would be one of those oddball combinations which to be fair have been more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:11 PM, Allsnow said: Looks like plenty of chances with cold around and -nao for January… snow mean for the eps. @bluewave what is causing this -nao? Expand looks like the -NAO is caused by wave breaking from the cutter on the 10th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:19 PM, SnoSki14 said: If it did produce it would be one of those oddball combinations which to be fair have been more frequent. Expand We have chances this month which is all I can ask for at this point. I think NYC snowless streak will end this month if the h5 look is correct going into mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:21 PM, Allsnow said: We have chances this month which is all I can ask for at this point. I think NYC snowless streak will end this month if the h5 look is correct going into mid month Expand It would just be bizarre because we're in a seemingly Nina background state but there's a strong Nino too. It's like two wrongs do make it right in this instance. At least there's something to track I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:25 PM, bluewave said: The key with any of these long range snowfall maps is getting them to hold within 120 hrs and then under 72. Expand Agreed. Just using the eps snow mean to illustrate potential snowfall for the area going into mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 12:26 PM, SnoSki14 said: It would just be bizarre because we're in a seemingly Nina background state but there's a strong Nino too. It's like two wrongs do make it right in this instance. At least there's something to track I suppose Expand i think we've pretty much gone full Nino at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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