January 2024

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That's not a bad look

[WarrenCtyWx]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

This is unprecedented. 89-93 averaged around 20"

NYC had six straight winters under 20" in a row from 1949-1955.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

NYC had six straight winters under 20" in a row from 1949-1955.

But even during that stretch NYC didn’t have the challenge of getting an inch or two of snow like today since it was much cooler back then.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 2 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	699	2023-12-29
2	685	1974-01-08
3	521	1919-09-15
4	416	1914-02-13
5	406	1998-03-21
6	386	1992-03-18
-	386	1955-02-01
8	385	1932-12-16
9	377	1972-02-05
10	366	2007-02-13
11	365	1986-02-06

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

100%.  Remember too at the time that for coastal sections that saw little snow in the 93 superstorm, 93/94 and 95/96 seemed like freak anomalies against our experience in the 80s and early 90s.

Little did we know what the next 18 years would bring.

Many people still didn't own snowblowers. You really did not need one; storms were that infrequent. After 94, I held out because 95 was mostly a return to normal ( little snow ) but when I saw a big snow in Dec 95 ( knowing by then that such an event COULD be a warning of more to come ) I went out and bought a small blower, a Murray that could do up to about 12 inches, which I figured would be plenty. And then the 96 blizzard came that Jan....and it bent the handle on that machine. After that winter I wouldn't need it again until Dec 2000. That one broke the handle. I would need snowblowers most winters until recent years. Last year I sold one off, gave one away, and looked to sell my big Yard Machine this year, but had no takers. I feel the electric Toro and the smaller Craftsman will be enough, if needed at all. I'm retired now, so anything bigger, it will have to wait until I call someone to get cleaned up.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

My hopes would be for something on the front end that goes to rain etc. I think that’s possible as long as the pna doesn’t go crazy negative in the sw 

I'd rather not see anything than a snow to slush event. But whatever happens, happens. Safe bet is probably nothing significant. We'll see. Two years of boredom here....

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'd rather not see anything than a snow to slush event. But whatever happens, happens. Safe bet is probably nothing significant. We'll see. Two years of boredom here....

Yup. Doesn’t do me any good to see 2-4” snow that’s washed away 6 hours later. 

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup. Doesn’t do me any good to see 2-4” snow that’s washed away 6 hours later. 

Ill take it. So will most at this point

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup. Doesn’t do me any good to see 2-4” snow that’s washed away 6 hours later. 

That would seems like a hecs right now

[MJO812]

Jeez 18z gfs is more potent with the wave out west and much more confluence so far with the 7th wave.

[MJO812]

Here we go

[MJO812]

Gfs!

[cardinalland]

there's a legit 50-50 low on GFS for 1.7.24

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

there's a legit 50-50 low on GFS for 1.7.24

And it's like...cold

[NEG NAO]

I don't like posting 198 hour 18Z anything BUT

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

there's a legit 50-50 low on GFS for 1.7.24

yup. it wasn't there a couple of days ago, but if it is real, it's a game changer and makes this threat viable. helps lock in confluence and a cold HP in SE Canada. SFC temps are not a problem as a result. we need to see this maintain on ensembles

 

[MJO812]

And now the gfs redeveloped the cutter because of the 50 50 low in place.

[vegan_edible]

i cant lie, as much as i love what is see on this 18z gfs run, it worries me its an off hours run. lets see this look hold at 0z then im getting hyped. maybe it can intensify and bring that low a little more north to hit the metro with a significant hit. v good look for 8 days out tho, my interest has been sparked

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup. it wasn't there a couple of days ago, but if it is real, it's a game changer and makes this threat viable. helps lock in confluence and a cold HP in SE Canada. SFC temps are not a problem as a result. we need to see this maintain on ensembles

I don't see this being snow at all in verification https://ibb.co/gTZh53c Pattern is building from the Pacific. 

looks like the GFS gets luckily with the timing but you see there is a 2nd low developing to the west of the system. 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And now the gfs redeveloped the cutter because of the 50 50 low in place.

Maybe a front end thump before a changeover on the 10th.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't see this being snow at all in verification  https://ibb.co/gTZh53c

looks like the GFS gets luckily with the timing but you see there is a 2nd low developing to the west of the system. 

Have you been following all the models ?

[hudsonvalley21]

[MJO812]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

Went from a strong cutter to this

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Have you been following all the models ?

These setups don't trend favorably inside 7 days. We would need a big Pacific pattern change. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

These setups don't trend favorably inside 7 days. We would need a big Pacific pattern change. 

Pacific isn't bad right now

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This isn’t a horrible look but it’s definitely not a slam dunk major snowstorm look either 

You'd need to avoid the overphase or early phase but its not too terrible

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Went from a strong cutter to this

Subject to change of course 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Ill take it. So will most at this point

Agreed. 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Went from a strong cutter to this

And as we know, this will flip flop like a fish out of water run to run.

[Allsnow]

If the block and 50/50 arereal Then we have a chance. we really haven’t had any luck in that department the past few years 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pacific isn't bad right now

In 7 days it posts a big Aleutian ridge. This has been overwhelming the NAO just constantly since 2018-19