It's Always Sunny Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Westerly momentum across the poles appears to be refracting back towards subtropics....could possibly speed up the MJO progression a bit which *could* be a favorable thing timing wise when considering end of January/early February becoming more active. Conjecture, but food for thought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: 985 low just south then scoots out to sea - still plenty of room and time for this to turn into our first snow over 2" in close to 2 years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: 985 low just south then scoots out to sea - still plenty of room and time for this to turn into our first snow over 2" in close to 2 years I love seeing the high pressure to our north instead of the last two years where there was always a low pressure system. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Pulling for DC. They already had their first snow would like for them to get another. never really works out like that though for them. If they get snow and we don’t, it’s because the storm went out to sea below us. It is very rare where they are getting snow, and we are getting rain simply because they are so much warmer than us. It almost discounts the fact that they are a bit west, and inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Suppression could be helpful here in getting us cold air. GEFS likes the low far off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 21 hours ago, forkyfork said: that pattern is absurd for a nino this strong It’s insane that we have a super El Niño (over +2.2C and still warming) in place, with it peaking into early January and have that pattern showing up mid-late month. Shocking really. Kudos to @bluewave for picking up on it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 tbh long range isnt looking as god awful as it did over the course of the past 2 days. i see some signs of improvement towards mid month post thaw. i think we can still get on the board and POTENTIALLY hit it off next weekend. waiting for the euro to drop to gain some sort of consensus roughly one week out also gonna drop a 100000 ton block of ice in the indian ocean if anyone wants to join 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 That’s some serious cold out west for the second week of January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Crazy… we will never see that again in today’s climate Newark was -12.5 in Feb 2015 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 This isn’t a horrible look but it’s definitely not a slam dunk major snowstorm look either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Newark was -12.5 in Feb 2015 Incredible…. Lots of those storms were sloppy even with it being that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 This is unprecedented. 89-93 averaged around 20"The late 1990s seemed pretty barren if IIRC. More than we’ve had this year and last, but pretty dead.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, North and West said: The late 1990s seemed pretty barren if IIRC. More than we’ve had this year and last, but pretty dead. . Dec 96 to Dec 99 was probably the worst stretch before the surprise Jan 2000 storm. I think March 99 we did ok. I lucked out and was in Chicago for the massive Jan 99 blizzard they had 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: never really works out like that though for them. If they get snow and we don’t, it’s because the storm went out to sea below us. It is very rare where they are getting snow, and we are getting rain simply because they are so much warmer than us. It almost discounts the fact that they are a bit west, and inland. Yeah this one was suppressed to our south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Incredible…. Lots of those storms were sloppy even with it being that cold DTW finished -14.0 in Feb 2015, even greater than the + of Mar 2012. I know we're a different climate out here in Michigan, plus you guys have the warm ocean, but even with overall winter temperatures warming to varying degrees, if one of those PV lobes breaks off and makes a dive for the east coast one of these years, watch out. Detroit has gone decades without an Arctic blast the likes of which it saw in January 2014, February 2014, February 2015, and January 2019. The blast that made Texas lose its shit in February 2021 would have likely had insane temperatures had it hit the Great Lakes or northeast rather than straight South. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Dec 96 to Dec 99 was probably the worst stretch before the surprise Jan 2000 storm. 100%. Remember too at the time that for coastal sections that saw little snow in the 93 superstorm, 93/94 and 95/96 seemed like freak anomalies against our experience in the 80s and early 90s. Little did we know what the next 18 years would bring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 More reason to buy stock for end of January/early February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This isn’t a horrible look but it’s definitely not a slam dunk major snowstorm look either Cold is dumping west and that's a smoothed out look. Probably would see more ridging in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This isn’t a horrible look but it’s definitely not a slam dunk major snowstorm look either Want the trough axis further east for us to really be in the game. Heights are higher near Greenland but no stout block that would force a southern track. That to me says cutters/maybe SWFE that would be good for New England/I-90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7th is already looking different on the euro compared to past runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 December is concluding in mild fashion. Locations including International Falls, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis will see their warmest December on record. New York City will finish its second warmest December on record. Strong El Niño events like the ongoing event typically see most of their snowfall after the first half of January (approximately 75% of their seasonal snowfall). The historic snow drought that grips Baltimore, New York City, and Philadelphia makes the wait almost unbearable. Patience will continue to be required. Looking ahead to January, the picture is complex. The strong El Niño event is likely to see a continuation of the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (possibly -1.000 standard deviations or more relative to normal). That combination would be almost unprecedented. Since 1950, there are two cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above and the PDO was -0.95 sigma or below (1954: El Niño winter and 2020 (neutral winter that fell just short of El Niño status). Composite 500 mb Anomalies: 1954 was characterized by expansive and deep cold across Canada. That is not the case this year. Moreover, the climate has warmed substantially since 1954. That likely rules out its temperature anomalies. 2020 had a somewhat similar trough-ridge pattern with much more expansive warmth. However, the current winter has a much more active subtropical jet. Hence cooler anomalies than January 2020 (due, in part, to more frequent precipitation) are likely across the southern tier of the CONUS. January 2020 can serve as a reference for a reasonable "worst case" scenario. The January 2020 map is below: The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast provides an illustration of the risks: January 2020 featured below average snowfall across the New York City and Philadelphia areas. Monthly snowfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 4.6"; Islip: 2.5"; New York City: 2.3"; Newark: 2.7"; and, Philadelphia: 0.2" What could go right? 1. The PDO- could erode substantially introducing a 1965-1966-style breakdown of the generally warm pattern (albeit with less Arctic air than was available then) 2. Atlantic blocking could predominate given some storm track opportunities for snowfall 3. The sudden stratospheric warming event could ultimately lead to colder air coming into eastern North America toward the end of the month, even if it initially flows into the West What could go wrong? 1. The PDO- remains strong (-1.000 or below) 2. Most of the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming event winds up in Eurasia 3. Atlantic blocking breaks down 4. The subtropical jet weakens At present, it still appears that the first 1-2 weeks of January could wind up closer to normal than has been the case for December. Such temperatures would mark a dramatic departure from the "torch" that defined the closing week of December (widespread anomalies of 8° or more above normal in the Northeast). Initially, the first week of January could start dry, but a wetter pattern could emerge afterward. The key question concerns whether there will be sufficient cold still available. Afterward, there has been persistent guidance suggesting that the trough could shift out West with possible ridging developing in the East (2020 lite?). The EPS ensembles have been showing the development of a PNA- during the second week of the month, which would support conditions conducive to the trough's shifting to the West. Severe cold appears unlikely in the Northeast through at least the first half of January. Big snowstorms (6" or greater) for Washington to New York City also appear unlikely through the first half of January (ensemble guidance + strong El Niño climatology). None of this means that winter has been canceled. It suggests that the best wintry conditions are not likely during the first half of January. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7th is already looking different on the euro compared to past runsNot even remotely close 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Good post Don. Not many examples, but -PDO/El Nino December's are very close to verification for the month: https://ibb.co/yfBVPXY https://ibb.co/tmFPSmv January of the 4 analogs I came up with: https://ibb.co/2nnqHrG https://ibb.co/sR01NT1 Talk about getting it coincidentally right for half of the Winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 50 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: More reason to buy stock for end of January/early February. Hard to get excited on something 35 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Hard to get excited on something 35 days away I'd stop short of saying to get excited as this is still no guarantee of anything, however it's what you currently want to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not even remotely close Eps is really amped 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 EPS snow mean likes the 7th and a few days after the 10th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Want the trough axis further east for us to really be in the game. Heights are higher near Greenland but no stout block that would force a southern track. That to me says cutters/maybe SWFE that would be good for New England/I-90. My hopes would be for something on the front end that goes to rain etc. I think that’s possible as long as the pna doesn’t go crazy negative in the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I like that there’s a storm that we are tracking with this. Makes it all seem possible at least briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now