January 2024

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I don't think he did but that doesn't matter. 

Long range forecasts are so fickle. 

Oh, to some it does matter. The willingness to put oneself on the line at the risk of getting it wrong earns a lot more respect from me, than always being right about short term lead times. And I don’t think I’m alone in saying this. 

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies have punted that classic Nino look (Aleutian low/+pna) into February now. I think the typical Nino backloaded winter is in serious trouble. After p3 the phases are warm in the east for Nino January 

So zero snow this year?

And it's not just us, it's the entire CONUS

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yes, bluewave’s accuracy in 1-2 week lead times has been deadly. 

But did he put himself on the line by issuing his own winter outlook? I haven’t seen one.  

Who cares? LR forecasting is a crapshoot and most LR forecasters get it wrong. Your attempts to discredit him won’t work. 
 

His accuracy extends well beyond 1-2 weeks, Try 1-2 months. I ask you. Who has been more accurate than him since November? Name one met/poster.

we will wait. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Oh, to some it does matter. The willingness to put oneself on the line at the risk of getting it wrong earns a lot more respect from me, than always being right about short term lead times. And I don’t think I’m alone in saying this. 

While that may be true , alot of long range forecasts for this winter are going up in flames again. 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

So zero snow this year?

Weeklies have been awful so far. I'm still waiting for thr pattern change they promised at the end of December .

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Oh, to some it does matter. The willingness to put oneself on the line at the risk of getting it wrong earns a lot more respect from me, than always being right about short term lead times. And I don’t think I’m alone in saying this. 

Nobody, especially Bluewave, cares about your metric for respect. Where is your winter forecast? I haven’t seen you post any forecasts at all, which elicits zero respect. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Who cares? LR forecasting is a crapshoot and most LR forecasters get it wrong. Your attempts to discredit him won’t work. 
 

His accuracy extends well beyond 1-2 weeks, Try 1-2 months. I ask you. Who has been more accurate than him since November? Name one met/poster.

we will wait. 

Good post man 

There have been many forecasters who have kicked cans already. 

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nobody, especially Bluewave, cares about your metric for respect. Where is your winter forecast? I haven’t seen you post any forecasts at all, which elicits zero respect. 

I have posted mine. It’s in the MA forum. 

It may yet go up in flames, and if that happens, I’ll learn something from it. 

[psv88]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I have posted mine. It’s in the MA forum. 

Great. Go back there and stop harassing Bluewave, one of the best posters in this forum who has been a well respected poster here for many years. 
 

see ya!

[Tatamy]

57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bluewave has been a step ahead every forecaster for years now 

Bluewave tells it like it is.

[It's Always Sunny]

Idk why some people here are punting winter with really 2.5-3 months left. End of January-February is looking very good from a LR perspective...

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Idk why some people here are punting winter with really 2.5-3 months left. End of January-February is looking very good from a LR perspective...

I don't think anyone is but people are frustrated. 

[wdrag]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

maybe it is a good sign for chances of frozen precip  that the GFS and Euro are suppressed at this range for the next too storms Jan 4-5 and 6-7 ? Both ensemble mean GEFS and GEPS at 0Z are suppressed BUT the GEPS brings some precip to southern areas of the NYC metro....

Just have to wait it out.  EPS may be surprising for some NY eve-NYD?  quite a short wave coming across PA.  Already wet snow showers nw NJ-Sussex County. 

4th---we're northern fringes on EPS and that's probably better than the Canadian but it does illustrate the potential for a confluence zone banding mid lvl snow I84.  Jan 6-7 EPS is in here...biggest VA area.  That low pressure system will be a producer..suspect half a foot eastern foothills (for now VA/NC-just my take, no one else). 10th-11th is a bigger  potentially wintry to heavy rain event.

EPS tends to be conservative and its much larger than the GEFS which is not helpful in recent threaded events. Disappointing winter model (has very little snow) and the NWS staple. 

Until the 7 day anomalies decrease to normal, I continue with the idea of plenty of action coming..

 

On suppression: if suppressed, then I would expect below normal temps... I dont see that coming though am aware Canada is not its normally cold self.  

 

[It's Always Sunny]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I don't think anyone is but people are frustrated. 

Climatologically, December isn't a great month anyways for much of the Northeast so those people are just ill-informed or ignorant...whichever of the two.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Climatologically December isn't a great month anyways for much of the Northeast so those people are just ill-informed or ignorant...whichever of the two.

I know El Ninos are backloaded so I'm not that worried but we have kicked the can a few times already . Hopefully things get better in January .

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

600 hr GEFS?..Where did you pull this out from? 2 weeks is not even accurate.I know your trying to prove a point it's going to be warm. Fine, get it.It's a warm winter.Doesn't mean it can't snow in January.

 

[psv88]

Good interview of John Homenuk (earth light) regarding the winter forecast. 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/12/will-it-be-a-white-christmas-will-new-york-ever-get-snow.html

[Allsnow]

Bluewave handing out L’s to every forecaster on this forum 

[North and West]

I don't think anyone is but people are frustrated. 

^^^ Ding.

People are frustrated. I don’t know the science, but the people part makes sense. When people are frustrated, a coping mechanism is to lash out. It’s usually not personal, but the blame and aggravation boils over.

It’s like if you watched your favorite team win 101 games one season and then come back and win 75 the next.




.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, North and West said:

^^^ Ding.

People are frustrated. I don’t know the science, but the people part makes sense. When people are frustrated, a coping mechanism is to lash out. It’s usually not personal, but the blame and aggravation boils over.

It’s like if you watched your favorite team win 101 games one season and then come back and win 75 the next.




.

It's more like back to back 57 win seasons

[North and West]

It's more like back to back 57 win seasons

Hey, hey… this is the Mets we’re talking about, so that’s possible.




.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bluewave handing out L’s to every forecaster on this forum 

The way in which he explains his reasoning is very easy to understand and follow as well. He definitely shows his work in terms of how the marine heatwaves correlating to various bad MJO regions have caused this background Nina state to persist for years. He's right up with any poster in showing stats. He said this winter would likely have competing Nina/Nino influences because of those warm SSTs remaining in the W Pac plus east of Japan. The pattern coming up toward mid month looks very much like La Nina with cold dumping out west which promotes cutters. Hopefully since the MJO phases are progressing along that pattern won't last and that influence will switch by late month which is when typically our best winter is during El Nino.

Plenty of posters I respect don't release winter outlooks. Don S doesn't release a winter outlook anymore (that I saw), he doesn't deserve as much respect? But it's nothing against those who do and I definitely respect the tremendous amount of work/study that goes into them. Honestly to me with these competing influences that are apparent it's becoming more of a crap shoot. I and most thought 20-21 would be a lousy winter here and it turned out very good. From what I remember most thought 18-19 and 19-20 would be very good winters and both sucked. It's also very hard particularly to forecast for NYC because we're the transition area between miller A type storms that are frequent in El Nino and hit the Mid-Atlantic, with more coastal, miller B-type storms that hit SNE/Long Island, and of course the usual I-95 rain/snow line storms-a tick SE and the city gets nailed too, or it goes to garbage from a tiny shift NW. I respect anyone who puts their name/rep on the line to try figuring out this stuff lol. 

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, North and West said:

^^^ Ding.

People are frustrated. I don’t know the science, but the people part makes sense. When people are frustrated, a coping mechanism is to lash out. It’s usually not personal, but the blame and aggravation boils over.

It’s like if you watched your favorite team win 101 games one season and then come back and win 75 the next.




.

I'm frustrated too. It sucks seeing a Seattle like foggy/washout 5 day stretch here right before New Years, sitting on 5 flurries for the winter. But especially in strong Ninos it can turn around and we can have a half decent season overall like in 15-16. If we do it'll likely be based on 1 or 2 big storms since Nino also favors our biggest all time blizzards. And we'll all be way happier lol. But we also know based on just common sense and history that what we enjoyed from 2000-2018 will turn around. If we're in a long term -PDO/La Nina state now, that's one huge strike right there. 

[SnoSki14]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bluewave handing out L’s to every forecaster on this forum 

Which means that day when he finally forecasts snow, it's definitely going to snow. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I thought this winter was going to be a good once since we are in an El Nino. 

The background state is acting more like a La Nina. 

The MJO went through the favorable phases and nothing happened. 

Yes we are only in December and strong El Ninos are backloaded but time is ticking.

Well, December actually acted like a true strong El nino background state with the entire continent void of arctic air (flooded by PAC air). 

As for January, we do see the trough dip first out west, the million dollar question is will the trough move east with time. If it's just 1 to 2 weeks that's fine. If not we are waiting for shorter wavelengths in Feb and March (and unfortunately April which has been cool and dreary lately).

Also, WRT the la Nina/trough out west look, are we saying this has never happened before in a strong El Nino? We never experienced a western trough in strong El nino history in January? Not sure but perhaps Don or Bluewave knows. 

[NittanyWx]

Must be mild because the NYC forum is back to fighting each other.

 

For the record, bluewave has been solid.  Not perfect, but no one is.  He's done a better job recognizing source region issues than some red taggers.  Can we move on now?

[NittanyWx]

As an aside, the insistence on seasonal forecasting is kind of strange because increasingly the value I see being added is in days 10-30.  I don't think it's a crapshoot anymore regarding temperature regimes.  You can add value there and increasingly its the window the energy and retail clients are seeking value added by meteorologists in.

 

I get asked more about week 3-4 than week 2 at this stage in my career.

[North and West]

I'm frustrated too. It sucks seeing a Seattle like foggy/washout 5 day stretch here right before New Years, sitting on 5 flurries for the winter. But especially in strong Ninos it can turn around and we can have a half decent season overall like in 15-16. If we do it'll likely be based on 1 or 2 big storms since Nino also favors our biggest all time blizzards. And we'll all be way happier lol. But we also know based on just common sense and history that what we enjoyed from 2000-2018 will turn around. If we're in a long term -PDO/La Nina state now, that's one huge strike right there. 

We’re experiencing the 1989-1993 and 1997-2000 timeframes again. 🫠


.

[MJO812]

Eric Webb says be patient. Strong El Ninos are backloaded.

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The way in which he explains his reasoning is very easy to understand and follow as well. He definitely shows his work in terms of how the marine heatwaves correlating to various bad MJO regions have caused this background Nina state to persist for years. He's right up with any poster in showing stats. He said this winter would likely have competing Nina/Nino influences because of those warm SSTs remaining in the W Pac plus east of Japan. The pattern coming up toward mid month looks very much like La Nina with cold dumping out west which promotes cutters. Hopefully since the MJO phases are progressing along that pattern won't last and that influence will switch by late month which is when typically our best winter is during El Nino.

Plenty of posters I respect don't release winter outlooks. Don S doesn't release a winter outlook anymore (that I saw), he doesn't deserve as much respect? But it's nothing against those who do and I definitely respect the tremendous amount of work/study that goes into them. Honestly to me with these competing influences that are apparent it's becoming more of a crap shoot. I and most thought 20-21 would be a lousy winter here and it turned out very good. From what I remember most thought 18-19 and 19-20 would be very good winters and both sucked. It's also very hard particularly to forecast for NYC because we're the transition area between miller A type storms that are frequent in El Nino and hit the Mid-Atlantic, with more coastal, miller B-type storms that hit SNE/Long Island, and of course the usual I-95 rain/snow line storms-a tick SE and the city gets nailed too, or it goes to garbage from a tiny shift NW. I respect anyone who puts their name/rep on the line to try figuring out this stuff lol. 

Violently agree. Whether or not a seasonal forecast was issued it doesn’t change the accuracy in what they do. One could argue again this shows how people overate seasonal forecasts with all due respect to those who take a stab at them.