January 2024

[nycwinter]

such lovely weather it would have been a perfect day for opening day at yankee stadium...

[North and West]

no doubt, mid atlantic was getting wild earlier. i almost had to make some popcorn halfway through reading
im starting to think we all need a storm. i'm feeling like memories of winters from my youth are becoming a skewed fever dream in this recent pattern. i graduated high school in 2014 and i remember that january not being able to see around the snowbanks when driving
now the grass is green
go vegan for the environment 
/end rant

2014?!?




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[North and West]

such lovely weather it would have been a perfect day for opening day at yankee stadium...

It’s warmer today than it will be for Opening Day (at Citi Field)


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[Volcanic Winter]

Month isn’t done but I’m at 42.1 average for Dec. 2022 was 36.5 for the complete month and by far the coldest of “winter” last year. 

Just for fun Nov 23 was 43.3. Just a little more than a one degree difference Nov -> Dec this year. Last year was over a 10 degree difference. Crazy. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs look ugly for the east as the southeast ridge links up with Nao domain. 

Nearly all the analogs centered near January 8th are La Niña or -PDO.

[North and West]

Nearly all the analogs centered near January 8th are La Niña or -PDO.

What does that mean? -PDO?

TIA.


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[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nearly all the analogs centered near January 8th are La Niña or -PDO.

that pattern is absurd for a nino this strong 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does that mean? -PDO?

TIA.


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Pacific Decadal Ociillation.

[Volcanic Winter]

@40/70 Benchmarkand others in the Niño thread through the fall were discussing the MEI and RONI, that despite how strong the Niño grew the atmospheric response wasn’t quite as strong. 

I don’t know where those values are right now, and I don’t know if this is still a valid point or question to raise, but was wondering if this could have anything to do with it?

Assuming those metrics are still on the low-ish end? I may be on the wrong track here, just thinking out loud. I mean the Niño did do the strong Niño thing of torching NA with pac air, so forgive me if this doesn’t make sense. 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that pattern is absurd for a nino this strong 

We cooked 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We cooked 

Yep for most of January 

[WX-PA]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We cooked 

I don't care what the models say it will snow in January.I'll take climo anytime..not saying it will be a big storm, but snow will accumulate sometime in the month.

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

such lovely weather it would have been a perfect day for opening day at yankee stadium...

 

1 hour ago, North and West said:

It’s warmer today than it will be for Opening Day (at Citi Field)


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I think this says as much about our current weather specifically at the moment as it does about early Spring weather around here.  I realize, even spring has been deceptively above normal if I recall, but anecdotally, the theme seems to be the following:

a. Winter false start at Thanksgiving

b. Actual winter start delayed til early Jan

c. Damp winter remnants stubbornly hang around into April

Last year you could wear a ight minimally insulated water resistant jacket to work from January (because it was mild enough) through early June (because it was cool enough).  Last year Jan - June was the uniseason.

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs look ugly for the east as the southeast ridge links up with Nao domain. 

Tomorrow will mark 700 days since at least 2” of snow was last recorded in Central Park (from the post at the beginning of this thread).  I think if we get through January with this streak still going I like the chances of making it to 1000 days and then some before next years season.

[wdrag]

Hi... Nothing has changed for me at 5PM, from my morning thoughts on the 4th 6-7, 10.

 

Here's CPC 3PM12/29  issuances for consideration (click for clarity)... we'll see what happens.  Moderate risk heavy precip east coast, and a slight chance heavy snow WELL inland, and a chance of high winds east coast.  IFFF things shape up consistently (esp EPS/CMC))... will attempt a reliable storm thread but probably not til sometime next week.

 

 

[MJO812]

Winters have sucked once I changed my name to MJO. I need to change it back but I can't. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winters have sucked once I changed my name to MJO. I need to change it back but I can't. 

I guess when folks say 'correlation is not causation', this would be a good example lol

[MJO812]

Maybe a huge cutter will turn things around 

[North and West]

Maybe a huge cutter will turn things around 

*in time for a chilly, dreary April


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[the_other_guy]

Moving more into a Seattle/London type winter climate with the pac.

 

Interesting turn of events to say the least.

I wish the summers would cool down a bit. That would actually make me really happy.

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

You know its bad when so far this winter is starting out much worse than last year at this time (temp wise). 

And we had like 2" last winter. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You know its bad when so far this winter is starting out much worse than last year at this time (temp wise). 

And we had like 2" last winter. 

Didn't the interior cash in a few times last December? 

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Moving more into a Seattle/London type winter climate with the pac.

 

Interesting turn of events to say the least.

I wish the summers would cool down a bit. That would actually make me really happy.

I’d prepare to be disappointed in that too (hope for cooler summers). 

[kdennis78]

Are we now looking at another 2"+5" of heavy rain in less than 2 hours again for the mid week?

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, kdennis78 said:

Are we now looking at another 2"+5" of heavy rain in less than 2 hours again for the mid week?

Not at the moment - recent model runs show a suppressed pattern next week - lets see if that changes at 0Z

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Hi... Nothing has changed for me at 5PM, from my morning thoughts on the 4th 6-7, 10.

 

Here's CPC 3PM12/29  issuances for consideration (click for clarity)... we'll see what happens.  Moderate risk heavy precip east coast, and a slight chance heavy snow WELL inland, and a chance of high winds east coast.  IFFF things shape up consistently (esp EPS/CMC))... will attempt a reliable storm thread but probably not til sometime next week.

 

 

CPC reasoning follows: As this storm tracks eastward, wet and windy conditions are possible across the East. A broad area is highlighted for a slight risk of rounds of heavy precipitation for the southeastern CONUS and East Coast as well as a slight risk of periods of heavy snow across the Southern to Central Appalachians and parts of the Northeast. The entirety of week-2 is designated for these hazards since the front could linger while extending from this surface low as it tracks towards the Northeast, in addition to possible reloading of the mid-level trough across the central CONUS at the end of the period. A moderate risk of heavy precipitation is designated for parts of the Southeast and East Coast, Jan 6-10, based on the ECMWF PET indicating at least a 30% chance of 3-day liquid equivalent exceeding the 85th percentile (>40% across the Northeast and Southeast) and uncalibrated guidance showing at least half an inch in a 24-hour period. The spatial coverage of this precipitation hazard is consistent with the background El Niño. Anticipated heavy precipitation could prolong flooding concerns across parts of the East Coast where there are currently gauges nearing or exceeding flood stage. A slight risk of high winds is posted for the East Coast for week-2 based on a favorable synoptic pattern and recent deterministic model guidance.

[wdrag]

I think we need to think about 1-4 events 4th-14th. I doubt if this goes down as less than normal qpf in the 4th-14th period. For now, largest might be 10th-11th, but modeling may change and I think at least two events that 10 day period, which in of itself is not abnormal. It's the qpf potential.  CPC should have our consideration. 

 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

will attempt a reliable storm thread but probably not til sometime next week.

some models showing suppression for next weeks events with cold enough air within range BUT suppression has not been a problem the last month 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think we need to think about 1-4 events 4th-14th. I doubt if this goes down as less than normal qpf in the 4th-14th period. For now, largest might be 10th-11th, but modeling may change and I think at least two events that 10 day period, which in of itself is not abnormal. It's the qpf potential.  CPC should have our consideration. 

 

modeling has been all over the place run to run - confusing everyone even pro METS - and causing an emotional roller coaster ride on this forum - so expect anything IMO