January 2024

[NEG NAO]

  On 12/29/2023 at 4:54 PM, Stormlover74 said:

As Walt said the interior could cash in on one of these events next week. The coast is toast

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he didn't say "the coast is toast" this is what he said "

There is no doubt(in my mind) that events around the 4th, 7-8th, 10th and possibly well beyond, provide opportunity for snow-ice, at least down to I84 per 24 hours snow depth change ensembles in near normal temps though probs for more than 1" are rather low.  

NY eve ball drop might even show flurries nearby NYC w-n suburbs.

All ensembles are above normal precip 4th-14th. Is it rain or snow/ice for I84?  Even a chance of snow down to I95.  "

[Volcanic Winter]

  On 12/29/2023 at 4:54 PM, coastalplainsnowman said:

Wikipedia says that the last time Mount Batur erupted was about the year 2000.  Based on what I'm reading in this thread, sounds like the odds of it erupting again before we see measurable snowfall again at the coast are about 50/50.

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There’s a resurgent volcanic conduit in the middle where activity has shifted (this happens after a magma chamber disintegrates in a catastrophic eruption but the heat source stays active). The cataclysmic eruptions that formed the caldera were a long time ago. Not unlike Wizard island in Mazama. Going from memory I haven’t read into Batur in a while. But it’s an interesting potential analogue for what could happen to Agung in the future. Agung in the 60’s had a climate impacting VEI 5 with a lot of sulfur output. 

HTHH unfortunately was likely our statistical VEI 6 for the next couple decades at least, though that’s not ironclad. There’s a couple candidate systems for a larger eruption, but they could be hundreds of years from an event of that magnitude. Most of the big VEI 6 climate impactors have come out of nowhere, like Pinatubo that wasn’t even known to be volcanic until it seismically woke up (and geologists probed the nearby ground and saw evidence of recent enormous eruptions, oops - 1991 was actually on the smaller side of what that volcano can do), or Santa Maria in the early 1900’s that was inactive for thousands of years prior. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/29/2023 at 4:54 PM, Stormlover74 said:

As Walt said the interior could cash in on one of these events next week. The coast is toast

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Maybe the coast is toast but watch the 7th. It can be colder.

[BoulderWX]

  On 12/29/2023 at 4:33 PM, MJO812 said:

The stupid pac ridge doesn't want to cooperate. It's been like that for years 

 

First half of January looks shot 

 

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Welcome back to reality! First step is acceptance and good to see you’ve checked that box! 

[Neblizzard]

  On 12/29/2023 at 3:54 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I would not even describe those as Nina...those long range ensembles would be torches everywhere...they are both 01-02/11-12 like minus the brief periods in those winters where we saw SERs...there's a ridge in W Canada and trof in the east as far as mean heights but there would be no cold aie.

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The pattern is nothing like a La Niña . The subtropical jet is strong  and the northern branch is way up in Canada .  This is a classic strong El Niño close to 97-98

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:05 PM, NEG NAO said:

he didn't say "the coast is toast" this is what he said "

There is no doubt(in my mind) that events around the 4th, 7-8th, 10th and possibly well beyond, provide opportunity for snow-ice, at least down to I84 per 24 hours snow depth change ensembles in near normal temps though probs for more than 1" are rather low.  

NY eve ball drop might even show flurries nearby NYC w-n suburbs.

All ensembles are above normal precip 4th-14th. Is it rain or snow/ice for I84?  Even a chance of snow down to I95.  "

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I was saying the coast is toast

[MJO812]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:22 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I was saying the coast is toast

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Maybe

[the_other_guy]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:15 PM, BoulderWX said:

Welcome back to reality! First step is acceptance and good to see you’ve checked that box! 

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except we’re tracking a storm, right?

 

Too many guys that don’t know what they’re talking about speaking in absolutes on here.

and for what it’s worth I agree with you. I think it is toast, but it’s January and we’re not out of it yet.

 

[North and West]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:00 PM, coastalplainsnowman said:

I see this too locally but I don't think I understand why.  March and early April routinely see consistent temps much higher than the mostly mild conditions we've had recently, yet it takes a good while before actual grass (not weeds) start growing/greening up.  Is it that some places never went 'dormant'?  Not sure I know what I even mean by dormant, or if its driven strictly by temperature anyway.

This is south facing, next to the driveway and sidewalk, so you have *sun angle* and radiational, reflectional warmth.


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[snowman19]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:22 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I was saying the coast is toast

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IMO early January trends to I-84 north events, I doubt anything at all south of there. The airmass is total garbage 

[BoulderWX]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:25 PM, the_other_guy said:

except we’re tracking a storm, right?

 

Too many guys that don’t know what they’re talking about speaking in absolutes on here.

and for what it’s worth I agree with you. I think it is toast, but it’s January and we’re not out of it yet.

 

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Never said there won’t be storms to track, if you’re going to talk about me not knowing what I’m talking about and talking in absolutes it would probably be best if you were accurate in your depiction of what I posted. 

Literally said I was glad he was finally accepting that there won’t be a major pattern change the first half of this month and that in order to get a cold storm along 95, everything would have to line up exactly right and there is nothing to support that scenario. 
 

That’s all. 

[North and West]

  On 12/29/2023 at 4:33 PM, MJO812 said:

The stupid pac ridge doesn't want to cooperate. It's been like that for years 
 
First half of January looks shot 
 

Time to go spend the weekend with family and come back at Thanksgiving.


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[NEG NAO]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:25 PM, the_other_guy said:

except we’re tracking a storm, right?

 

Too many guys that don’t know what they’re talking about speaking in absolutes on here.

and for what it’s worth I agree with you. I think it is toast, but it’s January and we’re not out of it yet.

 

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exactly - the pattern is changing and the models are totally confused right now - run to run continuity and model agreement is not there past a few days....

 

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:09 PM, MJO812 said:

Maybe the coast is toast but watch the 7th. It can be colder.

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Didn't you just say the first half of January looks shot?

[MJO812]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:30 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Didn't you just say the first half of January looks shot?

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In general yes but the 7th has a shot.

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/29/2023 at 3:54 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I would not even describe those as Nina...those long range ensembles would be torches everywhere...they are both 01-02/11-12 like minus the brief periods in those winters where we saw SERs...there's a ridge in W Canada and trof in the east as far as mean heights but there would be no cold aie.

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I am not too familiar with 94/95 in terms of H5, but I do remember it being one storm and not till almost mid February.

97/98 is still the best match in that there was no arctic air in North America and was a strong El nino. 

[Allsnow]

Winter is coming to the west 

[snowman19]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:54 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I am not too familiar with 94/95 in terms of H5, but I do remember it being one storm and not till almost mid February.

97/98 is still the best match in that there was no arctic air in North America and was a strong El nino. 

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With one exception….97-98 was actually colder. But in terms of sensible weather, 97-98 is starting to look better and better

[WX-PA]

  On 12/29/2023 at 6:00 PM, snowman19 said:

With one exception….97-98 was actually colder. But in terms of sensible weather, 97-98 is starting to look better and better

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Nope its going to snow sometime in January and February..Very unlikely we will just have a trace the next two months.

[vegan_edible]

forums from virginia to maine are in absolute shambles rn

[MJO812]

  On 12/29/2023 at 5:59 PM, Allsnow said:

Winter is coming to the west 

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It always does 

[vegan_edible]

  On 12/29/2023 at 6:21 PM, MJO812 said:

It always does 

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i can easily see this moving east toward mid month, i still dont think we're totally screwed yet. if we hit jan 20th and its 47 degrees everyday and im able to skate every night after work we might be up the creek without a paddle...

 

[North and West]

  On 12/29/2023 at 6:21 PM, vegan_edible said:

forums from virginia to maine are in absolute shambles rn

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[Volcanic Winter]

  On 12/29/2023 at 6:21 PM, vegan_edible said:

forums from virginia to maine are in absolute shambles rn

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I mean, the M/A forum seems fine with the usual analysis guys tracking the next few waves full steam ahead and with a bit of optimism about it. That’s totally fine and power to them, I’m just getting tired of several people taking unnecessary potshots at respectable posters here and elsewhere, unprovoked. I’ve seen that more this season than any time since I’ve signed up, and it’s not just a “well I disagree and here’s why,” it’s close to outright mocking. 

That I don’t respect or vibe with and I’ve personally found annoying. 

The NE forum is always a mix of total hilarious shitshow and excellent analyses, and tbh I love reading it. Always a trip. 

[vegan_edible]

  On 12/29/2023 at 6:28 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

I mean, the M/A forum seems fine with the usual analysis guys tracking the next few waves full steam ahead and with a bit of optimism about it. That’s totally fine and power to them, I’m just getting tired of several people taking unnecessary potshots at respectable posters here and elsewhere, unprovoked. I’ve seen that more this season than any time since I’ve signed up, and it’s not just a “well I disagree and here’s why,” it’s close to outright mocking. 

That I don’t respect or vibe with and I’ve personally found annoying. 

The NE forum is always a mix of total hilarious shitshow and excellent analyses, and tbh I love reading it. Always a trip. 

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no doubt, mid atlantic was getting wild earlier. i almost had to make some popcorn halfway through reading

im starting to think we all need a storm. i'm feeling like memories of winters from my youth are becoming a skewed fever dream in this recent pattern. i graduated high school in 2014 and i remember that january not being able to see around the snowbanks when driving

now the grass is green

go vegan for the environment 

/end rant

[snowman19]

IMO the bigger question is how long can you sustain a -EPO and non hostile PAC jet with an El Niño this strong? If that early-mid month EPO goes bye bye and the jet starts raging, the PAC floodgates open up and our source region goes to hell again. A -NAO/-AO won’t matter in that case because you will be trapping PAC garbage underneath the blocking 

[Allsnow]

Gefs look ugly for the east as the southeast ridge links up with Nao domain. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro would give us some crumbs on Thursday 

[forkyfork]

  On 12/29/2023 at 6:39 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Euro would give us some crumbs on Thursday 

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maybe it will trend to another 2" of rain

[winterwx21]

A beautiful 55 degrees here right now, but it looks like a pretty long stretch of slightly above average temps (highs in the 40s) after today. Cool but probably not cold enough for snow near the coast. Looks like an annoying pattern. Since it's January and not a torch we can't rule out a thread the needle event, so of course we'll keep an eye on things. Not looking good though.