January 2024

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when did we know in 2015-16 that this winter would not be a complete loss?

was it just before the HECS happened or did we have an indication of a pattern change weeks before?

 

Looking at late Dec 2015 the conversation was somewhat similar

Read the first page it's like nothing's changed 

 

 

[snowman19]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Looking at late Dec 2015 the conversation was somewhat similar

 

 

Big difference is that early January, 2016 actually had true arctic air on our side of the pole and a good source region and the PAC actually cooperated, albeit briefly

[Allsnow]

@uncle W has anyone heard from him? I hope all is okay 

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@uncle W has anyone heard from him? I hope all is okay 

Yeah he’s on other boards 

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

for JFK though their seasonal snowfall is less than 25 right Don-- so being in the same general area, that could mean a quicker increase of extremely low snowfall totals?

 

JFK's 30-Year rolling average is currently 26.7". JFK has one case of back-to-back winters with < 10" snowfall: 1996-97: 9.8" and 1997-98: 3.6". Prior to those winters, its 30-year average snowfall was 21.2".

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah he’s on other boards 

Thanks. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

So are we canceling winter in December?

No, but I’m warning you now I am prepared to cancel it by March. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Well if MJO going into favorable phases doesn't work, what will? It's a total disaster if you like winter weather. I can;t imagine not getting a snowfall these next 2 and a half months.But I'm starting to think it's possible which is scary.

MJO 2 with an El Niño isn’t a favorable pattern for us in January. The trough dives into the West and it pumps the ridge over us. That’s why the Jan week 2 forecasts have been correcting warmer.  My guess is that the 2nd week may see warmer departures than the first week. Remember the MJO effects can be lagged.
 

 

[SnoSki14]

I'm not that mad if this ends up being another non-winter. There's a lot of positives to a warm winter. 

I just wish it wasn't so rainy. 

February will be the month to watch. Pacific looks like trash before that.

[gravitylover]

If it's not gonna snow #bringbackthedrought

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

MJO 2 with an El Niño isn’t a favorable pattern for us in January. The trough dives into the West and it pumps the ridge over us. That’s why the Jan week 2 forecasts have been correcting warmer.  My guess is that the 2nd week may see warmer departures than the first week. Remember the MJO effects can be lagged.
 

 

There is nothing to stop the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases anymore either…the +IOD is rapidly weakening and should be neutral come mid-January

[JustinRP37]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not that mad if this ends up being another non-winter. There's a lot of positives to a warm winter. 

I just wish it wasn't so rainy. 

February will be the month to watch. Pacific looks like trash before that.

What exactly are the positives besides lower heating bills? More invasive insects in the summer? More mosquitos? More mold?

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

If it's not gonna snow #bringbackthedrought

SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 

.NEW YEARS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 

.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. 

.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 

.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.

[donsutherland1]

Three photos following the latest rainstorm, which saw a period of gusty winds. The photos reveal the growing erosion as a the waters from a slowly rising along Island Sound increasing come ashore during storms. The pictured bench was once surrounded by grass.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

All we are saying is if we get to 1/15 and still not tracking a legit threat or see changes a few days away it’s time to punt this winter . 
 

Yes, we can get one storm in February but by that point the chances of a huge cold/snowy winter are over 

I don't think anyone every expected that in the first place.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the region's most recent rainfall, Allentown, Bridgeport, Manchester, NH and New Haven have now seen their wettest December on record. New York City's seasonal precipitation has climbed to 59.19", which ranks as the 11th highest figure on record.

Temperatures rose into the 50s across much of the region. Islip saw the temperature hit 56°, which tied the daily record set in 1971, and tied in 2008 and 2018.

Tomorrow will be another very mild day. Additional showers are possible, even as some sunshine is also likely. The unseasonably mild weather will likely continue through the remainder of December, but readings will be somewhat cooler than tomorrow's highs.

Somewhat colder air should begin moving into the region to close December. The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal temperatures. However, severe cold appears unlikely. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one, so snowfall prospects will remain limited. The second week of January could offer better opportunities for snowfall, as the retreat of cold air could occur while the pattern becomes wetter.

There remains some uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.98°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -3.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.741 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Atlantic blocking is continuing to redevelop.

On December 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.837 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.774 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (5.3° above normal). That would make December 2023 the 2nd warmest December on record. With 2023 virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest Decembers on record, 60% of New York City's 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2000, including 40% since 2010, and all have occurred since 1980. Records go back to 1869.

 

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There is nothing to stop the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases anymore either…the +IOD is rapidly weakening and should be neutral come mid-January

In terms of sensible weather impact it's already dead.  Indonesia is one of my forecast regions.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

when did we know in 2015-16 that this winter would not be a complete loss?

was it just before the HECS happened or did we have an indication of a pattern change weeks before?

 

The sensible weather in late December into Janaury along with the forecasts were indicating a big turnaround. Following the low 70s leading up to Christmas, we quickly picked up a T of snow before New Years. Then a short Arctic outbreak with NYC dropping to 11° on Janaury 5th. I remember mentioning how impressive  it was to have a+500 meter KB block. Once it built back across the pole, the rest was history. The weeklies started looking great in late December.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/ecmwf-monthly-run-10/

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather in late December into Janaury along with the forecasts were indicating a big turnaround. Following the low 70s leading up to Christmas, we quickly picked up a T of snow before New Years. Then a short Arctic outbreak with NYC dropping to 11° on Janaury 5th. I remember mentioning how impressive  it was to have a+500 meter KB block. Once it built back across the pole, the rest was history. The weeklies started looking great in late December.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/ecmwf-monthly-run-10/

 

 

 

Did that h5 look last all month? 

[White Gorilla]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

What exactly are the positives besides lower heating bills? More invasive insects in the summer? More mosquitos? More mold?

As much as I love snow and winter weather, other positives are lower frequency of accidents and injuries due to snow and ice.  But I feel bad for people who make money from snow removal. 

[Eduardo]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather in late December into Janaury along with the forecasts were indicating a big turnaround. Following the low 70s leading up to Christmas, we quickly picked up a T of snow before New Years. Then a short Arctic outbreak with NYC dropping to 11° on Janaury 5th. I remember mentioning how impressive  it was to have a+500 meter KB block. Once it built back across the pole, the rest was history. The weeklies started looking great in late December.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/ecmwf-monthly-run-10/

 

 

 

You definitely telegraphed this back then!  I distinctly remember thinking of that winter as having been saved by that Kara ridge!!

[Eduardo]

6 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

You see a very small sliver of the pro's.  Social media pros tend to skew cold because it drives interactions.    I don't view Bustardi as an operational met anymore so much as a political pundit hocking books.  He has long past his expiration date on reliable forecaster in the long range and a lot of folks have wised up to it.  Margavage was in school when I was and flunked out, now returns as the 'cold and snow' guy and gets a following.

 

There are a lot of good mets around, a lot, who's opinion I value and respect.  Some of them were cold 1h Jan, many were not.  But they're not gonna be the loudest voice on twitter.

Welp….

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

As much as I love snow and winter weather, other positives are lower frequency of accidents and injuries due to snow and ice.  But I feel bad for people who make money from snow removal. 

trust me the invasive insects and black mold are far more deadly than the accidents and injuries from snow and ice.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

In terms of sensible weather impact it's already dead.  Indonesia is one of my forecast regions.

ever think of vacationing in Bali?

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Welp….

is he the successor to JB?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Did that h5 look last all month? 

The west biased -AO block actually verified stronger and peaked around the 16th. Then we had the historic blizzard when the Pacific became favorable around the 22nd-23rd. 
 

[Volcanic Winter]

I can only imagine how fun this place was through that event. I only really got to experience 1/29/22 and that wasn’t a huge deal outside my area and LI. More a NE storm. But was still very fun to track with a lot of last minute uncertainties, and at least something for much of the metro. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I can only imagine how fun this place was through that event. I only really got to experience 1/29/22 and that wasn’t a huge deal outside my area and LI. More a NE storm. But was still very fun to track with a lot of last minute uncertainties, and at least something for much of the metro. 

When I get bored and we're in a snow drought I'll go back and read the archived threads leading up to our best blizzards 

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ever think of vacationing in Bali?

I was there. It's a fabulous place.

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was there. It's a fabulous place.

I’d go to see Gunung Agung in person. Beast of a volcano. Could be a future high level VEI 6 to 7 caldera candidate.