January 2024

[bluewave]

  On 12/28/2023 at 1:26 PM, Allsnow said:

@bluewave thoughts on the mjo? Looks like p3 to start January so hopefully some pna improvements after the cold dump in the west 

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The first we thing see in early January are the VP anomalies almost going off the scale with the record marine heatwave near 60E. While the MJO composites aren’t a perfect match, my guess is that the shift toward a -PNA week 2 of January is in response to this. A deep trough in the West is close to the MJO 2 El Niño composite. The MJO getting over to 3 would tend to build the ridge again in Canada. But any lingering convection near 60E could hold an undercutting trough in the SW. So we may go to an overlapping composite look for a time before the next step in the MJO becomes better defined.

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/28/2023 at 1:53 PM, bluewave said:

The first we thing see in early January are the VP anomalies almost going off the scale with the record marine heatwave near 60E. While the MJO composites aren’t a perfect match, my guess is that the shift toward a -PNA week 2 of January is in response to this. A deep trough in the West is close to the MJO 2 El Niño composite. The MJO getting over to 3 would tend to build the ridge again in Canada. But any lingering convection near 60E could hold an undercutting trough in the SW. So we may go to an overlapping composite look for a time before the next step in the MJO becomes better defined.

 

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how is it hitting 96 on a tiny island in the middle of the ocean? what are the SST there?

[Allsnow]

  On 12/28/2023 at 1:53 PM, bluewave said:

The first we thing see in early January are the VP anomalies almost going off the scale with the record marine heatwave near 60E. While the MJO composites aren’t a perfect match, my guess is that the shift toward a -PNA week 2 of January is in response to this. A deep trough in the West is close to the MJO 2 El Niño composite. The MJO getting over to 3 would tend to build the ridge again in Canada. But any lingering convection near 60E could hold an undercutting trough in the SW. So we may go to an overlapping composite look for a time before the next step in the MJO becomes better defined.

 

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Thanks. Hopefully improvements out west around mid month once the wave fully enters p3. In the meantime it does look like Canada will finally start to cool off. 
 

p3 January 

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:09 PM, Allsnow said:

Thanks. Hopefully improvements out west around mid month once the wave fully enters p3. In the meantime it does look like Canada will finally start to cool off. 
 

p3 January 

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Maybe we'll hit those winter forecasts calling for our snow season to start after January 20.

[WX-PA]

  On 12/28/2023 at 1:53 PM, bluewave said:

The first we thing see in early January are the VP anomalies almost going off the scale with the record marine heatwave near 60E. While the MJO composites aren’t a perfect match, my guess is that the shift toward a -PNA week 2 of January is in response to this. A deep trough in the West is close to the MJO 2 El Niño composite. The MJO getting over to 3 would tend to build the ridge again in Canada. But any lingering convection near 60E could hold an undercutting trough in the SW. So we may go to an overlapping composite look for a time before the next step in the MJO becomes better defined.

 

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Well if MJO going into favorable phases doesn't work, what will? It's a total disaster if you like winter weather. I can;t imagine not getting a snowfall these next 2 and a half months.But I'm starting to think it's possible which is scary.

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:20 PM, WX-PA said:

Well if MJO going into favorable phases doesn't work, what will? It's a total disaster if you like winter weather. I can;t imagine not getting a snowfall these next 2 and a half months.But I'm starting to think it's possible which is scary.

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I do not have the historical MJO plots, however 97/98 had repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but rain to show for it. The fact that the storm tracks were of the benchmark variety leads me to believe that there was a trough in the east, therefore "favorable" MJO phases. Again, the problem with that year were the temps in North America which were too warm even for the northwest side of the storms. At least this year there are signs we are not heading down that road. We shall see but hopefully we get more of a 82/83 or 15/16 result.

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:27 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I do not have the historical MJO plots, however 97/98 had repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but rain to show for it. The fact that the storm tracks were of the benchmark variety leads me to believe that there was a trough in the east, therefore "favorable" MJO phases. Again, the problem with that year were the temps in North America which were too warm even for the northwest side of the storms. At least this year there are signs we are not heading down that road. We shall see but hopefully we get more of a 82/83 or 15/16 result.

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Yes, 82/83 and 15/16 are more typical of what to expect in a very strong el nino, 97/98 was very extreme even by those standards (and it still snowed in March lol)

 

[MJO812]

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/28/2023 at 1:29 PM, Dark Star said:

Interesting.  Originally there was to be no cold dump in the west from Canada, since the first Arctic air was supposed to seep over the pole into north eastern Canada.  Has this changed?

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This was a fun debate earlier in December.

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:30 PM, LibertyBell said:

Yes, 82/83 and 15/16 are more typical of what to expect in a very strong el nino, 97/98 was very extreme even by those standards (and it still snowed in March lol)

 

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Larry cosgrove talks about snow and cold coming after the 15th. Then says he's likes the 72-73 analog 

[jm1220]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:27 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I do not have the historical MJO plots, however 97/98 had repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but rain to show for it. The fact that the storm tracks were of the benchmark variety leads me to believe that there was a trough in the east, therefore "favorable" MJO phases. Again, the problem with that year were the temps in North America which were too warm even for the northwest side of the storms. At least this year there are signs we are not heading down that road. We shall see but hopefully we get more of a 82/83 or 15/16 result.

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97-98 had the Aleutian low in an unfavorable spot, mostly in the Gulf of Alaska which cuts off cold air coming down from the pole. Instead that floods Canada with Pacific air. Since we had no cold air source as a result, the storms were too mild despite the good tracks. 

If we can get cold air down here for any sustained length of time, I’m confident we can pull off a good snowstorm or two. It’s a matter of reshuffling the pattern and having cold air available when we get the storms. If we can get the stronger than advertised SE ridges which have been the story the past 5+ winters now, I’m not too worried about suppression. 

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/28/2023 at 1:53 PM, bluewave said:

The first we thing see in early January are the VP anomalies almost going off the scale with the record marine heatwave near 60E. While the MJO composites aren’t a perfect match, my guess is that the shift toward a -PNA week 2 of January is in response to this. A deep trough in the West is close to the MJO 2 El Niño composite. The MJO getting over to 3 would tend to build the ridge again in Canada. But any lingering convection near 60E could hold an undercutting trough in the SW. So we may go to an overlapping composite look for a time before the next step in the MJO becomes better defined.

 

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I suspect you will end up finding progression here in these VP anomalies as well.  Particularly as the IOD has collapsed and there's a smoothing of ocean temperature anomalies between WIO and EIO.

[qg_omega]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:00 PM, NittanyWx said:

I suspect you will end up finding progression here in these VP anomalies as well.  Particularly as the IOD has collapsed and there's a smoothing of ocean temperature anomalies between WIO and EIO.

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Sounds like a stall in 2 

[Dark Star]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:58 PM, NittanyWx said:

This was a fun debate earlier in December.

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Yes, I do recall.  I take it that prog was incorrect, just as the present progs are?

Persistence Forecast:    A forecast that the current weather condition will persist and that future weather will be the same as the present.  The persistence forecast is often used as a standard of comparison in measuring the degree of skill of forecasts prepared by other methods. The Subtropical Pacific Jet has persisted over the last few years.  Despite constant long-range signals for cold periods forecasted during the winter of 2022-23, they never materialized as each one was said “to be delayed”.  Presently, the arctic air is not even in the “Western Hemisphere”.  Unless this “monster/thing” of a beast in the Pacific subsides or is re-directed, I would not put any credence to any cold weather signals in the near future.  (This hypothesis does not necessarily represent the viewpoint of this blogger or of anyone on this site).

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:53 PM, Dark Star said:

Yes, I do recall.  I take it that prog was incorrect, just as the present progs are?

Persistence Forecast:    A forecast that the current weather condition will persist and that future weather will be the same as the present.  The persistence forecast is often used as a standard of comparison in measuring the degree of skill of forecasts prepared by other methods. The Subtropical Pacific Jet has persisted over the last few years.  Despite constant long-range signals for cold periods forecasted during the winter of 2022-23, they never materialized as each one was said “to be delayed”.  Presently, the arctic air is not even in the “Western Hemisphere”.  Unless this “monster/thing” of a beast in the Pacific subsides or is re-directed, I would not put any credence to any cold weather signals in the near future.  (This hypothesis does not necessarily represent the viewpoint of this blogger or of anyone on this site).

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You may have found a universally acceptable definition of persistence. 

 

Edit: card carrying member of #TeamWCanFirst

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:05 PM, NittanyWx said:

You may have found a universally acceptable definition of persistence. 

 

Edit: card carrying member of #TeamWCanFirst

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Persistence reminds me of inertia

[Brian5671]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:59 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Larry cosgrove talks about snow and cold coming after the 15th. Then says he's likes the 72-73 analog 

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More can kicking as we are now into mid January yet 15+ days away 

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:13 PM, Brian5671 said:

More can kicking as we are now into mid January yet 15+ days away 

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Nothing good happened here in 72-73 lol

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:13 PM, Brian5671 said:

More can kicking as we are now into mid January yet 15+ days away 

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As many have said we flip in mid to late January or probably not at all. December was always way too soon

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:18 PM, LibertyBell said:

Nothing good happened here in 72-73 lol

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Unless you lived in the Carolinas 

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:20 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Unless you lived in the Carolinas 

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yup same as 01-02

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:20 PM, Stormlover74 said:

As many have said we flip in mid to late January or probably not at all. December was always way too soon

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I remember this applied to last winter too, we were either going to flip by January 20th or not at all

[psv88]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:20 PM, Stormlover74 said:

As many have said we flip in mid to late January or probably not at all. December was always way too soon

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People need to stop wishcasting, some never learn and it makes this board hard to read. It’s hard to see the same posters fall into the same traps every year for the last 15 years. 
 

science isn’t about following your heart, it’s about following the facts. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:24 PM, psv88 said:

People need to stop wishcasting, some never learn and it makes this board hard to read. It’s hard to see the same posters fall into the same traps every year for the last 15 years. 
 

science isn’t about following your heart, it’s about following the facts. 

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Not just this board. Too many of the pros seem to fall into the trap of well it's January it must turn cold and snowy now let me look for any hint of a pattern change and blast it all over social media.

[Brian5671]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:24 PM, psv88 said:

People need to stop wishcasting, some never learn and it makes this board hard to read. It’s hard to see the same posters fall into the same traps every year for the last 15 years. 
 

science isn’t about following your heart, it’s about following the facts. 

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Yep it’s the same posts saying so and on twitter sez or putting up some analog from colder times and hoping it works

[Brian5671]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:22 PM, LibertyBell said:

I remember this applied to last winter too, we were either going to flip by January 20th or not at all

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Generally if it doesn’t come by late Jan it’s not coming at all

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:33 PM, Brian5671 said:

Yep it’s the same posts saying so and on twitter sez or putting up some analog from colder times and hoping it works

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True but every winter is different and every el nino is different so maybe this is the year we get nada in December or January and flip in mid February or maybe this is the year we get 1" for the entire winter

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:32 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Not just this board. Too many of the pros seem to fall into the trap of well it's January it must turn cold and snowy now let me look for any hint of a pattern change and blast it all over social media.

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You see a very small sliver of the pro's.  Social media pros tend to skew cold because it drives interactions.    I don't view Bustardi as an operational met anymore so much as a political pundit hocking books.  He has long past his expiration date on reliable forecaster in the long range and a lot of folks have wised up to it.  Margavage was in school when I was and flunked out, now returns as the 'cold and snow' guy and gets a following.

 

There are a lot of good mets around, a lot, who's opinion I value and respect.  Some of them were cold 1h Jan, many were not.  But they're not gonna be the loudest voice on twitter.

[MJO812]

So are we canceling winter in December?

[Allsnow]

  On 12/28/2023 at 4:38 PM, NittanyWx said:

You see a very small sliver of the pro's.  Social media pros tend to skew cold because it drives interactions.  

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The SSW got a ton of tweets by respectable accounts which kind of surprised me