January 2024

[MJO812]

Models are still looking good . It finally might be coming. 

[MJO812]

It looks like the pv split is not going to happen but a rather weak one which is fine .

[WestBabylonWeather]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are still looking good . It finally might be coming. 

 

[Dan76]

34 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

 

[Stormlover74]

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Who ? The change is coming.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who ? The change is coming.

You said that a month ago

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

You said that a month ago

Incorrect!!..he said that last December lol

[Stormlover74]

I'm certainly open to hearing how the models look good. I don't see anything on the horizon thru the 10th of January 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm certainly open to hearing how the models look good. I don't see anything on the horizon thru the 10th of January 

Looks like the PV split might not happen which might be the best thing for us. It's always tricky when it splits.

 

[MJO812]

Ensembles look good. Pattern change starts this week. Question is how long.

[JustinRP37]

Sigh the sad thing is even on the ten day there are only a few nights favorable to snow making if the humidity cooperates. Pattern really needs to change in a hurry. 

[JTA66]

Just want to make sure I'm following along...up until 48 hours ago, we were excited that a SSWE would occur to lock in a long-term, cold and snowy pattern. Now that the models seem to be backing off that idea it's, "we don't want a SSWE cause they wrecks our snow chances". 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Sigh the sad thing is even on the ten day there are only a few nights favorable to snow making if the humidity cooperates. Pattern really needs to change in a hurry. 

just get this ugly rain and foggy stuff out of here it makes me sick, I want unbroken sunshine for the next 2 weeks minimum

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Just want to make sure I'm following along...up until 48 hours ago, we were excited that a SSWE would occur to lock in a long-term, cold and snowy pattern. Now that the models seem to be backing off that idea it's, "we don't want a SSWE cause they wrecks our snow chances". 

A SSWE represents the start of a pattern change.  It is in no way a guarantee of a long term cold and snowy pattern.  I will describe the issue in a simple manner.  Over the past several winters we have seen the establishment of a very strong west to east jet stream over and across the northern Pacific Ocean.  The significance of this is that it prevents the sustained formation of a ridge over the western states which would deliver cold air down to us from northern Canada.  This said jet stream literally blows away this ridge before it can get established and covers the country in mild Pacific air which is too mild for snow.  This was the issue last winter.  

[Allsnow]

50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm certainly open to hearing how the models look good. I don't see anything on the horizon thru the 10th of January 

First threat or model run of interest will probably start around the 5/6th. I agree, by the 15th if we are still reading posts from metfan about how the pattern is changing this winter is most likely a punt 

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

just get this ugly rain and foggy stuff out of here it makes me sick, I want unbroken sunshine for the next 2 weeks minimum

Saturday afternoon through Tuesday look sunny and dry

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah I mean, there’s no point in getting either dejected or overly hyped right now. Smart move is just wait and see how the next week to ten days evolve, and let’s go from there. We’ll know if we smell another rat by the second week of Jan, but anything before that is premature. 

Of course it’s still possible Jan sucks and Feb doesn’t, but nobody wants to go through all of Jan like this and have to pray for Feb, so that would only work as a pleasant surprise IMO. 

FWIW I’d be surprised if NYC goes all of Jan without something on the ground. I believe it’ll happen, but that’s not the same as suggesting we’re entering a great stretch or anything. But I think the city will see something rolling through Jan. 

[gravitylover]

Y'all just have the wrong approach and need to rejigger your expectations. If you go into it thinking that it's not going to snow then it's doubly exciting when it does. Appreciate how much $ you're saving on heating and how much strain you're not putting on your back shoveling. 

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

First threat or model run of interest will probably start around the 5/6th. I agree, by the 15th if we are still reading posts from metfan about how the pattern is changing this winter is most likely a punt 

The Winter is already a punt. Cruising towards AN temps and BN snow. Questions are: do we get a few snow events or one snow event? Are any of those a blockbuster like 2016?

January opens at a solid +5 for those celebrating the pattern change

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah I mean, there’s no point in getting either dejected or overly hyped right now. Smart move is just wait and see how the next week to ten days evolve, and let’s go from there. We’ll know if we smell another rat by the second week of Jan, but anything before that is premature. 

Of course it’s still possible Jan sucks and Feb doesn’t, but nobody wants to go through all of Jan like this and have to pray for Feb, so that would only work as a pleasant surprise IMO. 

FWIW I’d be surprised if NYC goes all of Jan without something on the ground. I believe it’ll happen, but that’s not the same as suggesting we’re entering a great stretch or anything. But I think the city will see something rolling through Jan. 

Snowless back to back Januarys would be tough to pull off

Jan 31 to 34 was the worst stretch with 4 straight <1" at central park

[NittanyWx]

Thoughts today:

 

The lack of source region remains a barrier to significant cold despite h5 improvements.  As such, first 5 days of Jan should average above normal before a transient cooler period 5-7th.  Think the risk is cold air overdone by modeling in extended range and HP rolls forward less intense due to lack of snowcover and Pacific air contributing to that issue.  Locally, we'd need to thread a needle for a significant snow and you only have a couple windows where I see that as possible early January.  As I've said several times now, source is still vitally important.   And we are in an improved h5 pattern with marginal source region through the first 7 days of Jan.  That's not a death sentence for snow, but margin of error is slim. 

 

First period of interest would be Jan 5-7 range as some HP in Canada and a wave in the southern stream moving northward.  I flagged this as a period of potential interest last week and thoughts haven't changed on it.  Old adage is 'WAA waits for no man'  but this is a situation where if you can avoid a coastal bomb you could get an overrunning situation into NE Canadian high pressure if the cards on the table lay out properly.  Several things need to go right, theyre not all 'right' as of today, but that may change.  

 

Big picture, thinking this is a multi step process moving forward whereby the upper level pattern shift will be most notable during the Jan 8-15 window as we scour out some Pac air in North America, TPV retrograde westward (slowly), PNA drops and EPO rises.  That should, in theory, start the process of allowing for some carpet to be laid in the Canadian prairies and upper Midwest later in the month.  It's not brutally cold, but it's a way to begin to scour some of the much above normal temps in time.  It'll be stormy, but mild here I think during that second week of Jan.  Could have some much above normal temp days.

 

Could you see something in that window of transition?  Perhaps, but again need several things to go right and big coastals are a no go for snow here in this window.  I expect polar regions to be less hostile heading into mid-late month, but the Pac still hostile for the bulk of early Jan.

 

That brings us to the MLK weekend whereby you're looking for some of this cooler air to potentially migrate S/E ward as PNA rises and board resets towards more traditional Nino with potentially some blocking.  Maybe.  I think you've got a lot more reasons to be optimistic after MLK than before, with the caveat that you'd hope the Pac jet isn't as hostile as it has been if you're a snow lover.

 

As an aside, I'm not considering any potential Strato interaction on this pattern until perhaps February, if at all.  I just view any potential 'help' there as supportive of blocking and not necessarily supporting a Pac change.

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The Winter is already a punt. Cruising towards AN temps and BN snow. Questions are: do we get a few snow events or one snow event? Are any of those a blockbuster like 2016?

We've already punted past a few pattern-change dates.  Until we actually are in the midst of one, I am a skeptic.  

[Stormlover74]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

We've already punted past a few pattern-change dates.  Until we actually are in the midst of one, I am a skeptic.  

Only a handful called a pattern change around Christmas and most quickly backed off

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

First threat or model run of interest will probably start around the 5/6th. I agree, by the 15th if we are still reading posts from metfan about how the pattern is changing this winter is most likely a punt 

The El Nino winters that had turnarounds after a completely snowless November/December didn’t do so until either the tail end, last week of January or the beginning of February. If we get to 1/20 and there isn’t a sustained change imminent with actual legit cold (not -NAO/-AO trapping PAC air with a +EPO and screaming fast PAC jet with split-flow blasting into the west coast) then we can start thinking of a 97-98 type redux

[JTA66]

34 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

A SSWE represents the start of a pattern change.  It is in no way a guarantee of a long term cold and snowy pattern.  I will describe the issue in a simple manner.  Over the past several winters we have seen the establishment of a very strong west to east jet stream over and across the northern Pacific Ocean.  The significance of this is that it prevents the sustained formation of a ridge over the western states which would deliver cold air down to us from northern Canada.  This said jet stream literally blows away this ridge before it can get established and covers the country in mild Pacific air which is too mild for snow.  This was the issue last winter.  

Yes, the Pac jet has been the issue for the last several winters. I'm not cancelling winter on 12/27, but it seems I've been reading posts about the MJO cycling into better phases, jet retractions and SSW events since Thanksgiving.

Just getting a feeling that in another 6 weeks or so, we'll be reading posts about how the writing was on the wall back around the holidays with all the cold air trapped on the other side of the globe and the wretched NA snow cover.

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Only a handful called a pattern change around Christmas and most quickly backed off

There have been huge red flags for the last 2 months….the record low snow and ice cover, all the arctic air locked on the other side of the pole in Eurasia and an El Niño with region 3.4 SSTs of over +2C in place since November. There is a load of work that needs to be done in our source region. It’s ugly right now

[the_other_guy]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The El Nino winters that had turnarounds after a completely snowless November/December didn’t do so until either the tail end, last week of January or the beginning of February. If we get to 1/20 and there isn’t a sustained change imminent with actual legit cold (not -NAO/-AO trapping PAC air with a +EPO and screaming fast PAC jet with split-flow blasting into the west coast) then we can start thinking of a 97-98 type redux

Right. But then the question becomes how many, how much and for how long.

Snowless Ninos dont usually become prolonged winters

[Volcanic Winter]

I do greatly miss having something to track and be invested in, whatever the outcome. 

[North and West]

Who ? The change is coming.

I love your enthusiasm, but I think we all know it’s coming just in time for an April that’s going to look and feel just like today.


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