January 2024

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am still suspect of any long duration -PNA pattern happening...depends largely on what the dynamics behind the change are but if its strictly based on the MJO going 4-5 I am far from sold it happens.  

Most of us will call it a -PNA as long as there is a trough the Western US. But it’s possible we may get a technically +PNA with a ridge over the top in portions of Canada. I have seen many times the official CPC site call it a +PNA when we had a trough in the West due to ridging in Canada. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of us will call it a -PNA as long as there is a trough the Western US. But it’s possible we may get a technically +PNA with a ridge over the top in portions of Canada. I have seen many times the official CPC site call it a +PNA when we had a trough in the West due to ridging in Canada. 

 

DT has torn into those calculations for years...he's shown how the -NAO stats can be wrong at times where you might technically have higher Greenland heights and lower Azore heights but its not really a -NAO, or certainly not one which impacts us  in any positive manner for snow or cold

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Active gfs run with snow opportunities 

 

[cleetussnow]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Right where we want it, in the old days anyway.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Right where we want it, in the old days anyway.

Yeah, hopefully something works out in the next two weeks 

[NEG NAO]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

have to begin to see some run to run continuity and support from other models to start getting excited IMO. Also I don't buy into the suppressed look - this season so far suppression has not been an issue...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, hopefully something works out in the next two weeks 

I am not too concerned about the next few weeks since this season like most El Niños will be judged on what happens after January 15th.
 

 

 

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

[Tatamy]

34 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I need to make the same commitment… lol  -  I do look at the ensembles as a reality check.

[Brian5671]

20 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We are kicking the can……

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We are kicking the can……

Already moving to Jan 20th

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We are kicking the can……

No we aren't.  What are you even talking about ?  The pessimism and trolling is annoying in this subforum compared to other subforums.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Most of us will call it a -PNA as long as there is a trough the Western US. But it’s possible we may get a technically +PNA with a ridge over the top in portions of Canada. I have seen many times the official CPC site call it a +PNA when we had a trough in the West due to ridging in Canada. 

Last January was a great example of this....western biased +PNA went a tough over the west coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/24/2023 at 9:18 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, do think we warm up after the first week of January. Very strong forcing near 60E is close to a MJO 2 signal. The composite has a trough in the Western US during an El Niño. That’s why I think the EPS has that general look. Believe the key to getting any SSW to work for us later January into February is what the Pacific does. As we have seen in recent years, we need the Pacific on our side even with near record -AOs like December 22 and at other times. So let’s hope some backloaded El Niño effect can push back against what the Pacific has been doing in recent years.

 

 

 

December 2022 was a pretty extreme RNA, though....while I understand the propensity for contemporary NAO blocking to be displaced southward and appreciate the risks that entails, I am quite certain we will have more working in our favor relative to last season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No we aren't.  What are you even talking about ?  The pessimism and trolling is annoying in this subforum compared to other subforums.

 

There are a few like that and this is what drowns out some outstanding analysis in this subforum.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last January was a great example of this....western biased +PNA went a tough over the west coast.

Yeah, I remember. We should develop a custom set of indices based more on 500 mb composites. Several times the CPC raw indices don’t do pattern justice. I know most on here consider it a -PNA when there is a trough in the West even with a ridge over the top in Canada which computes as a +PNA on the CPC site. This was the case last January. I would also develop a custom Southeast ridge index. 

[psv88]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No we aren't.  What are you even talking about ?  The pessimism and trolling is annoying in this subforum compared to other subforums.

 

He’s not wrong, might be delayed but not denied. The can is kicked but only by a week or so

[Allsnow]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am not too concerned about the next few weeks since this season like most El Niños will be judged on what happens after January 15th.
 

 

 

 

 

We get to Jan 15 without an inch of snow this winter will go down as another dud. I don’t see a 3-4 week stretch to get us to normal Snowfall in that timeframe 

[Snowguy66]

You don’t want DT to be on your side. I’ve been watching DT for years and he’s wrong more often than not. He might know science of weather, but he usually screws it up in the end.


.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

He’s not wrong, might be delayed but not denied. The can is kicked but only by a week or so

Nothing looks delayed. The pattern is getting colder but for how long and will it snow ?  

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We get to Jan 15 without an inch of snow this winter will go down as another dud. I don’t see a 3-4 week stretch to get us to normal Snowfall in that timeframe 

One storm can certainly get us to normal. 

[mannynyc]

9 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

People forget that last winter was so bad we weren't even getting 300 hour fantasy blizzards from the GFS

[Santa Claus]

stayed up all night for the dense fog advisory, total bust

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We get to Jan 15 without an inch of snow this winter will go down as another dud. I don’t see a 3-4 week stretch to get us to normal Snowfall in that timeframe 

But that won’t be because if what happened from January 1st to 15th. El Niños with only a T of snow during December typically haven’t had as much snow as the ones with more December accumulation. We can’t count on an exception like 15-16 to recur again since that was such an extreme event.

Seasonal El Niño snowfall in NYC with only a T or less in December

2006-2007….12.4

2015-2016….32.8

1997-1998…..5.5

1994-1995…..11.8

1972-1973…..2.8

1965-1966….21.4

1877-1878…..8.1

 

[Allsnow]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But that won’t be because if what happened from January 1st to 15th. El Niños with only a T of snow during December typically haven’t had as much snow as the ones with more December accumulation. We can’t count on an exception like 15-16 to recur again since that was such an extreme event.

Seasonal El Niño snowfall in NYC with only a T or less in December

2006-2007….12.4

2015-2016….32.8

1997-1998…..5.5

1994-1995…..11.8

1972-1973…..2.8

1965-1966….21.4

1877-1878…..8.1

 

That list is ugly and proves my point…we get to 1/15 with just a trace we are in trouble.

 

1/15 is a good check point to see where the rest of winter might go. If we don’t see changes by then or still chasing 11-15 day ensemble I think it’s safe to say this winter won’t be a snowy one 

.

 

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That list is ugly and proves my point…we get to 1/15 with just a trace we are in trouble 

If you look at all the official El Niño winters going all the way back to 1940, that had less than an inch of snow, total on 1/1, only a few got to 20 inches or more for the rest of the season. It’s ugly

[EastonSN+]

Unfortunately we have a strong El nino acting like a strong El nino. 

Worst for snow - moderate and strong la Ninas, strong El ninos. Kind of what we have seen last 3 years.

What we need weak to moderate El nino or weak la Nina. Have to monitor next year la Nina for if it's moderate to strong, will likely be another below average snowfall winter.

I will have to go back, however 1985 through 1999 only had 2 above average snowfall winters in 15 years. 1997/98 was a super El nino. Curious to see the other 12 below average snowfall winters.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

If you look at all the official El Niño winters going all the way back to 1940, that had less than an inch of snow, total on 1/1, only a few got to 20 inches or more for the rest of the season. It’s ugly

Correct, and I for one was so excited to get out of the la Nina phase that I ignored the fact that strong El ninos are just as bad. I am just hoping we can keep next year's la Nina weak at this point. 

[SnoSki14]

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That list is ugly and proves my point…we get to 1/15 with just a trace we are in trouble.

 

1/15 is a good check point to see where the rest of winter might go. If we don’t see changes by then or still chasing 11-15 day ensemble I think it’s save to say this winter won’t be a snowy one 

.

 

At this point a single warning event would be a miracle. 

It's crazy that we're going on 2 years without one. Makes me lucky to be alive during the snowy 2000s & 2010s. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point a single warning event would be a miracle. 

It's crazy that we're going on 2 years without one. 

I think this must of happened multiple times 1970 through 1999.