wdrag Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Can the pattern adjust enough to permit near normal snowfall for the NYC subforum In January, at least for the interior (10-15")? Have added some statistical information regarding the potential ahead including that note from Bluewave. We do sort of know that temps are going to cool down closer to normal the first week of January. Beyond the 2 week lead time of this initial Dec 23 thread starter, that's where our long rangers add further discussion. Verification added Feb 2 for Jan. You decide for yourselves the utility of the monthly. Temp looked a little shaky MT to Lower Miss Valley. The rain was shifted west and obliterated the outlook for lower Ohio Valley. Interior I think did get near or above normal snowfall for Jan (Wantage NJ 19") but NYC CP the 2.3" was 6.5" below normal. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 2 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2023-12-21 1 691 2022-01-30 through 2023-12-21 2 685 1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08 3 521 1918-04-13 through 1919-09-15 4 416 1912-12-25 through 1914-02-13 5 406 1997-02-09 through 1998-03-21 6 386 1991-02-27 through 1992-03-18 - 386 1954-01-12 through 1955-02-01 8 385 1931-11-28 through 1932-12-16 9 377 1971-01-25 through 1972-02-05 10 366 2006-02-13 through 2007-02-1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Good chance we get decent snows in January. Split flow pattern. Plenty of cold for snow and favorable climo. Remember you don't need arctic cold for snow. I know everyone's jaded but the pattern isn't bad at all. People act like a giant ridge is forecast And appreciate Snowman19 graduating from the weenie emoji. Big step for him 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Good chance we get decent snows in January. Split flow pattern. Plenty of cold for snow and favorable climo. Remember you don't need arctic cold for snow. I know everyone's jaded but the pattern isn't bad at all. People act like a giant ridge is forecast Agreed. We will have chances first half of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6z gfs is really cold . Euro just got colder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 52 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agreed. We will have chances first half of the month. Agree than a thaw and possible a more sustained pattern in the 2nd half. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree than a thaw and possible a more sustained pattern in the 2nd half. Idk…I would think the mjo goes around the horn so it would make sense to see a warmer second half of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Idk…I would think the mjo goes around the horn so it would make sense to see a warmer second half of January. I'm talking about latter January into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: I'm talking about latter January into February. Really to far out to speculate. Hopefully we don’t waste blocking with a hostile pac… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Really to far out to speculate. Hopefully we don’t waste blocking with a hostile pac… Agree Good thing is that the El Nino is starting to weaken and shifting west. We need to capitalize during the 1st half of January before worrying about after that. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 As for the mjo… Still looks like p3-4 first half of January. Dry air in p7 so I don’t see any conflicting signal issues as of now. Biggest issue will be cooling off Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I don't expect central Canada to see significant cold or arctic outbreaks, but in an El Nino pattern, source of cold air for developing east coast snowfall is more often Quebec assisted by blocking over Greenland. Central Quebec can get very cold even if arctic air does not build in from central arctic. It can radiate under clear skies over snow cover and become as cold as SK or NWT, or at least close, to give adequate cold for snow events. Also dynamics of interaction between Quebec (or eastern Ontario) cold and subtropical jet rarely creates a monsoonal n.w. flow like more traditional arctic air invading from n.w., so it is snowstorm-friendly. As long as Quebec into eastern Ontario becomes a source region for cold, its absence in central Canada won't be a factor. As an earlier map illustrates, snowfall deficits in El Nino winters occur in Alberta, central plains and lower Great Lakes. It would be BUF getting mauled by El Nino more so compared to NYC or DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: He is most likely right 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Starting to see some decent artic air into the conus with the weak pv and -epo on the ensembles for January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: Agree Good thing is that the El Nino is starting to weaken and shifting west. We need to capitalize during the 1st half of January before worrying about after that. Right, “weakening” with a WWB in progress, region 3.4 at over +2.0C and the SOI nose diving to -36 lolhttps://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 49 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Right, “weakening” with a WWB in progress, region 3.4 at over +2.0C and the SOI nose diving to -36 lolhttps://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ Troll 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Gefs looks really good. Maybe suppression if the TPV is too far south but we can worry about that later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Looks like January will open BN with snow opportunities followed by a Jan thaw mid month and then Nino climo really kicks off late Jan into Feb. CFS weeklies depict this very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Anyone worried about suppression in this upcoming pattern ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 EPS snow mean 3-4 inches for the first week of January last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Of course. As we have seen with split flow patterns in recent years, the northern stream has been suppressing southern stream disturbances. Then when northern stream relaxes, the southern stream low rides too far north and we get mix to rain or plain rain. This is the case even in colder than normal patterns since the day of the storm we warm up with the overamped storm track. Plus this fast Pacific flow doesn’t allow cold high pressure to lock in over SE Canada long enough. The very fast split flow aside, we still have the already mentioned source region issues with cold/snow/ice. And the overnight runs of both GEPS and GEFS are developing an RNA pattern by the 8/9th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS snow mean 3-4 inches for the first week of January last night Best mean in 2 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 All the ensembles are building a nao next month so that’s something to keep a eye on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The very fast split flow aside, we still have the already mentioned source region issues with cold/snow/ice. And the overnight runs of both GEPS and GEFS are developing an RNA pattern by the 8/9th The trough in the west is not supported by the mjo from p1-3. Yes, perhaps they look comes but imo I think it’s being rushed. OLR has lots of dry air in p7 out until to the 11-15 day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The trough in the west is not supported by the mjo from p1-3. Yes, perhaps they look comes but imo I think it’s being rushed. OLR has lots of dry air in p7 out until to the 11-15 day Yea. The models are probably rushing the RNA, they usually do rush changes, it most likely happens closer to mid-month. There is very good evidence for a mid through late month mild period then possibly a good wintry February. I still think February is good. If you look back at strong/super Ninos, the “good” period for snow/cold doesn’t start until the tail end of January or beginning of February 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: You can take the “woe is us it will never snow again” crap to the NYC subforum. Sorry WxUSAF I am not trying to start a forum war on Christmas Eve but thought this was hilarious and wanted to share in good cheer. Its funny how each forum has its own personality. Happy Holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: yes. the SPV lobe coming to our side of the globe is big I'm expecting a colder than average period through Jan 10, a moderation Jan 10-20, and then a potential significant blocking spell from late Jan into early Feb 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: All the ensembles are building a nao next month so that’s something to keep a eye on Nino climo with a SSW early Jan would be significant for late Jan and Feb. Would be nice to score something in the Jan 1-10 period too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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