Historical Probability of a White Christmas

[michsnowfreak]

We all know this year will not be kind to those looking for a White Christmas, but here are the historical probabilities for some places. It is interesting to note that the memories of those who claim Christmas was always white are almost always...wrong. Locally I find it interesting that no matter how harsh or mild December was, White Christmases in the Detroit area have remained relatively steady (a 50/50 shot basically) regardless of the month of December's overall weather. 10 of the past 20 were White. The worst decade for White Christmases locally was the 1990s.

Midwest/Great Lakes
Marquette – 95% (1961-2022)
International Falls – 95% (1948-2022)
Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022)
Alpena – 79% (1916-2022)
Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022)
Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022)
Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022)
Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022)
Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022)
Lansing – 55% (1863-2022)
Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022)
Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) 
Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022)
Chicago – 45% (1901-2022)
Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022)
Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022)
Omaha – 37% (1948-2022)
Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022)
Columbus – 27% (1948-2022)
Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022)
Louisville – 15% (1900-2022)

Northeast
Caribou – 93% (1940-2022)
Burlington – 74% (1896-2022)
Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022)
Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022)
Albany – 42% (1938-2022)
Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022)
Boston – 24% (1891-2003)
New York City – 14% (1912-2022)
Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022)
Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022)

Mountain West
Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022)
Denver – 38% (1921-2022)
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

Notable Christmas Events in Detroit's records

1871 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Dec 22nd 

1882 -- 6.1” of snow fell on Dec 23rd

1884 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Christmas Eve.

1886 -- 6.5” of snow fell on Christmas Eve.

1889 -- 61 degrees on Christmas Eve accompanied by thunderstorms! 

1895 -- 59 degrees on Christmas is followed by 6.5” of snow the next day

1901 -- A Norman Rockwell Christmas scene with "moist snow" falling late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, with 0.62" liquid, and depth of snow 5.5". Snow "adhered" to everything. Unfortunately, a high of 41 degrees melted much of the snow.

1915 -- Snow began around sunset Christmas Eve and continued into Christmas day, totaling 8.0”. Some rain mixed in at the end but did little to mar the scene.

1929 -- The snow depth is 12” inches, the 2nd deepest amount of snow on Christmas day in Detroit's records (behind 1951). This is thanks to a 13.8” storm on December 18/19th.

1931 to 1933 -- Yuck! Three consecutive Christmas Eve's topped 50 degrees (57, 57, 50) though only one (1932) topped 50 on Christmas Day.

1945 -- Late on Christmas Eve and into Christmas morning an ice storm occurred, with the icy pavements causing almost impossible travel & walking conditions. The rainfall of 1.16” is a record for Dec 25.
 
1951 -- After a deep snowcover to begin with, heavy snow falls Christmas day, heaviest in the morning, dropping 6.2” and bringing the snow depth to 13”, the deepest White Christmas in Detroit's record. We paid for it as the next 6 Christmases were not white.

1957 -- A very rainy Christmas week. 0.94" fell on the 18th, 0.18" on the 19th, 1.00" on the 20th, and 0.99" on the 25th. All wet, no white. 

1964 -- After six straight White Christmases, a warm and wet one.

1965 -- A very heavy rainstorm set in Christmas Eve, flooding area basements. After parts of the Detroit area got up to 4” of rain (3.75" at DTW, 2.50" at City Airport), the rain turned to snow on Christmas day. Only 0.5” of snow fell but winds of 50 mph caused blowing snow.

1973 –- Christmas morning started with a heavy 7” snowcover but all day rain & temps in 40s dropped snowcover to 2” slush by evening.             

1974 -- Though it was 40 degrees on Christmas Eve, the snow depth was still 6” from the 19.3”-inch storm of the 1st (and falls after that).

1975 -- Though the snow depth of 2” inches was good for a White Christmas, a storm hit on the 26th dropping 6.3” more of snow.

1979 -- A wet & warm Christmas. 1.58” of rain fell Christmas Eve & Day with temps falling from the low 50s through the 40s.

1980 -- After a fresh 3-inch” snowfall Christmas Eve, bitter cold set in with a low of -8F on Christmas morn.

1982 – A record 64 degrees in Detroit is accompanied by thunderstorms.

1983 -- Mother Nature payback. The COLDEST Christmas one year after the WARMEST Christmas! High/low 4F/-10F.

1990 -- Fresh from a 5-inch” fall on the 23rd, the 1990s starts with the only White Christmas of 1”+ of the decade (tho a Trace was on the ground in 1993, 1995, & 1996).

2000 – Detroit had 6” of snow on the ground, but 15-18” covered the ground from the northern suburbs towards Flint.

2002 -- Perfectly timed Christmas snowstorm. Snow began around 10:30 p.m. Christmas Eve and ended early afternoon Christmas Day, totaling 6.4” at Detroit.

2003 -- For the second year in a row, snow fell Christmas Eve & Day. Though only 1.7” fell at Detroit, up to 3” fell nearby.

2004 -- A cold, white Christmas. After Detroit saw 8.9” of snow on the 22nd, the low dipped to -4F Christmas morning.

2008 -- Christmas Eve rain atop a foot snowpack froze into a glittery 7” snow crust for Christmas Day.

2013 –- The official snow depth of a trace on Christmas morn was a bit or irony in the historic 2013-14 winter, as snow buried the ground nearly constantly from early December to late March, with one of the only times of scattered depth being the Christmas to New Years period.

2015 –- A springlike Christmas Week saw temps hit the 50s daily from the 21st-25th. The high was 58F on Christmas Eve & 50F Christmas Day.

2017 –- A 4.5” snowfall hit during the afternoon & evening Christmas Eve, then on Christmas day, snow squalls dropped another inch with blowing snow, falling temps, and bitter wind chills. 

2020 –- Snow developed around 10:30pm Christmas Eve and continued throughout Christmas Day, dropping 3.0” at Detroit.

2022 – With a few inches of drifty snow already down, more snow developed late Christmas Eve and lasted through Christmas Morning, dropping another 2.4” at Detroit and bringing the depth up to 4”.
 

[RogueWaves]

For cities not listed