fountainguy97 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Well let's clear up the long range thread and chase some flakes! High res suite at 18z looks good for the typical NW flow areas. I fully expect to see some flakes break containment across the valley. this is unlikely but the HRRR has a full on meso-low snow squall rolling through. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: Well let's clear up the long range thread and chase some flakes! High res suite at 18z looks good for the typical NW flow areas. I fully expect to see some flakes break containment across the valley. this is unlikely but the HRRR has a full on meso-low snow squall rolling through. If the Hrrr hasn't been upgraded any it still has a bit of a warm bias in this area. So, will be a test to see if that still exists. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Both the 12z RGEM and 3k NAM have decent streamers for the Apps. The overall energy is a bit further north on modeling today, but not absent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Bring It. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 From MRX... By 12z Monday morning northwest flow will be ongoing as strong coastal storm lifts north from the NC coastline. Meanwhile a strong upper low will develop over Wisconsin and track eastward through the Great Lakes as the day wears on. Embedded within this deepening upper low/trough will be a vort max that will dive southeast from Indiana through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys during the afternoon hours. As this swings through the region, model soundings show deepening moisture and a rapidly cooling thermal profile that will be sufficient to produce snow showers down to the valley floor by late Mon afternoon. The uncertainty that still exists, and it is not insignificant I should add, is just how far south and how widespread any precipitation/snow showers will be. The trends over the last 48 hours have been to continue to pull the precip further and further north, and also to increasingly show a more shallow moist layer to work with for any precip generation. Given we`ll be positioned beneath the left exit region of an H3 jet streak overhead, and the vort max will traverse the northern 2/3 of our forecast area, it seems unlikely that showers won`t be present for much of the area Monday afternoon. However, this seems like a high PoP and low QPF scenario, so while high PoPs don`t necessarily reflect the northward shifts in guidance, I think the QPF and resulting snow accumulations for the most part do. The NAM model soundings show saturation extending into the DGZ by roughly 21z Mon afternoon at Tri Cities, with those conditions continuing until roughly 06z Tue before moisture begins to wane and snowfall potential transitions to an almost entirely orographically induced NW flow regime. The GFS soundings aren`t quite as generous on the moisture side but show similar conditions. In line with the northward shift in moisture and snow potential, model soundings don`t show much in the way of a snow sounding at KTYS during much of the afternoon and evening hours due to lack of moisture. It`s possible we could see a tenth or two of snow accumulation in the valley as far south as the Knoxville metro area, but the best chances for any low elevation accumulations will definitely be in the northern TN valley and even then less than an inch is expected. Otherwise, forecast amounts remain largely unchanged. Amounts of 1- 3" are expected above roughly 1,500 ft in elevation for locations in southwest Virginia and the east Tennessee mountains, with amounts in the 3-5" range limited to elevations above 3,000 ft in those same areas. While some northwest flow snow showers will linger in the higher terrain into Tuesday morning, in large part snowfall will begin to taper off late Monday night. Lastly, before moving on from the wintry precip on Monday, it`s worth pointing the possibility of some possible mixed precip or even outright icing in the higher elevations on Monday. As mentioned in the short term section above, some higher elevations will see temperatures fall below freezing during the morning hours while in a very shallow moist layer that will not extend into the dendritic growth zone until the afternoon. We don`t see a lot of freezing rain, but it`s hard to ignore guidance like the SPC HREF pointing out some potential for freezing drizzle or freezing rain during the morning hours on Monday when other forecast sounding sources support it. Have a feeling that accumulations would be limited at best; likely would wind up having a lot of ice on the trees thanks to increasingly strong (upwards of 30kt) northwesterly H85 flow during the day. This would be for areas between roughly 2,000 ft and 4,000 ft ASL for a short while Monday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 Yeah, don't let me start another thread this winter the very next run started trending worse lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Jackson KY 205 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-085>088-104-106>120-180500- /O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0006.231218T1600Z-231219T0900Z/ Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Laurel-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson- Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie- Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, London, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 205 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow squalls and showers developing. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch most places, though up to a couple of inches are expected above 1500 feet. The snow squalls of Monday afternoon into the evening will be accompanied by westerly wind gusts of up to 35 mph leading to times of low visibility. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and southeast Kentucky. * WHEN...From 11 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions at times, along with reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Caution is urged for travellers Monday afternoon into Monday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most places will see only light snow amounts on grassy and elevated surfaces, but brief snow accumulations from any heavier snow showers would lead to driving impacts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Consider postponing travel Monday afternoon and evening. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov. && $$ GREIF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 207 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-039-040-515>519-521-180315- /O.NEW.KRLX.WW.Y.0020.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour- Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette- Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Northwest Webster- Including the cities of Clintwood, Grundy, Vansant, Welch, Gary, War, Mullens, Oceana, Pineville, Buckhannon, Philippi, Belington, Bradley, Prosperity, Sophia, Beckley, Oak Hill, Fayetteville, Montgomery, Meadow Bridge, Summersville, Craigsville, Birch River, Holly River State, Webster Springs, and Cowen 207 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and northeast, northern, southeast and southern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 49 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah, don't let me start another thread this winter the very next run started trending worse lol Not your fault nothing can overcome heat blister in the TN Valley. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Yeah, don't let me start another thread this winter the very next run started trending worse lol These waves tend to ramp up a few days out and come back to reality 24 hours out when the CAMS are in better range. I think it’s a good sign that we are talking about snow in a pattern that’s about as bad as it gets. I know it’s not a lot but I’ll take flakes in the air, especially in the valley right now. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Fountain, they(MRX) just said that blizzard conditions might exist at higher elevation. You bet, this deserves a thread! You won't see that mentioned often during afternoon disco!!! Tomorrow A lull in activity is expected in the morning hours as the exiting low moves up the coast. By the afternoon hours, a shortwave trough digging through the Ohio Valley will bring very strong northwesterly flow enhancing snowfall for the higher elevations. Snow totals have not changed much since the last package. Light snow accumulations below half an inch will be possible for the lower elevations of NE Tennessee and SW Virginia, East Tennessee foothills and Upper Cumberland Plateau counties. The best window for snow accumulations will be Monday afternoon and evening with northwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 40 kt causing terrain forcing. Snow in the lower elevations of NE Tennessee will have a harder time accumulating with snow starting in the afternoon when temps are still above freezing. Temps will drop quickly in late afternoon and evening but the window for accumulation will be fairly short tomorrow evening. For East TN mountains: Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible above 3,000 feet and 4 to 6 inches above 5,000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches above 2,000 feet. For Virginia counties: Total snow accumulations of up to 1 inch in the lower elevations and in the higher elevations up to 3 inches. Another round of strong winds expected Monday morning through the evening, mainly in the higher elevations. A strong shortwave digging into the region will bring a strong 850 mb jet from the northwest. In addition to terrain forced snowfall, this jet will likely bring Advisory level winds in the higher elevations. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely in the higher elevations of East Tennessee. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible in higher elevations of SW Virginia. This jet will likely peak around 40 knots in SW Virginia and East Tennessee late Monday afternoon and evening. There may be a window for blizzard conditions in the higher elevations of East Tennessee and SW Virginia during that peak late Monday afternoon and evening. Blowing snow may reduce visibility significantly at times making driving conditions very dangerous. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 It is really funny. I hate to be a weenie but why not? I lived in the Cleveand area for years and it seemed the tri-cites and Knoxville areas would get these backside snows almost every winter. Something that never happened in Southeast TN. I then moved up to Knoxville about 15 years ago and we have got almost none of these clippers since I have moved, at least none that have amounted to anything. Is this the case or am I just imagining this? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, bearman said: It is really funny. I hate to be a weenie but why not? I lived in the Cleveand area for years and it seemed the tri-cites and Knoxville areas would get these backside snows almost every winter. Something that never happened in Southeast TN. I then moved up to Knoxville about 15 years ago and we have got almost none of these clippers since I have moved, at least none that have amounted to anything. Is this the case or am I just imagining this? Depends on the year. Knoxville has done much better than MBY for at least two of the last three years, and I am in TRI. We have had a decent number of La Nina's during the last 15 years, and that shifts backside snows well west as many storms cut right across us. Winter has been more a longitudinal algorithm in this forum during the past three years with La Nina. When I lived in Knoxville during the 90s, outside of about three winters, we got very little snow at all (92-93, 93-94, 95-96). Knoxville has done much better of late. As for backside snows, I would almost say it is a lack of Miller A's and NA0 blocking...that may be changing as it "seems" we are seeing the Atlantic move to more negative cycle of NAOs(nothing scientific....just might overall abs). When you see DC in a snow drought, that is probably correlated to what we are seeing here w/ fewer backside snows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 And a general rule of systems which dive into the wake of systems departing the EC...they tend to trend north. However, this could be a very impressive system in the TN/NC Apps above 3,000'. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Whoever wrote this....we need the "one of us!" GIF. Gives a shoutout to our SE folks - I like that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Whoever wrote this....we need the "one of us!" GIF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Pretty good radar returns over eastern KY this AM well ahead of the shortwave rotating through this evening and overnight. Looks like folks above 2500 feet could already be seeing some snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 It is really funny. I hate to be a weenie but why not? I lived in the Cleveand area for years and it seemed the tri-cites and Knoxville areas would get these backside snows almost every winter. Something that never happened in Southeast TN. I then moved up to Knoxville about 15 years ago and we have got almost none of these clippers since I have moved, at least none that have amounted to anything. Is this the case or am I just imagining this?Looks like we have found Knoxville’s lack of snow issue. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Story of my life. I expect to have a mob of crazed weather freaks with pitchforks and shovels intent on driving back south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 And a general rule of systems which dive into the wake of systems departing the EC...they tend to trend north. However, this could be a very impressive system in the TN/NC Apps above 3,000'.Just thinking out loud… sometimes the mods have trouble with these trailing that follow a big dominant system. I can think of a few times when these waves have been stronger than the mods projected. The inverted trough wave that was sandwiched between to big winter storms that hit ETn in 2015 (maybe?) looked like nothing 48 hours out but dropped 3-6” across the valley in a 6 hour window. Not suggesting this is that but just saying the mods do have issues during an active period. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Story of my life. I expect to have a mob of crazed weather freaks with pitchforks and shovels intent on driving back south.I’ve been in Halls/Powell my 49 years on earth and these NW flow events do not produce unless there’s some extra forcing involved. The northern plateau from Morgan Co to Campbell Co downslopes us to death. The only exception is when the flow is a little more NNWbut that’s typically more of a backside return from a low pressure off to our E/SE. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Hoping against hope to see some flakes but it looks like now even places like LeConte won't see much of anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Hoping against hope to see some flakes but it looks like now even places like LeConte won't see much of anything. Everything further North. Trajectory still looks to get southern extent of those heavier returns in KY later into SWVA/NE Tn . Unless they die off or Get pulled even further North and even miss this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Everything further North. Trajectory still looks to get southern extent of those heavier returns in KY later into SWVA/NE Tn . Unless they die off or Get pulled even further North and even miss this area. MRX updated and said weaker 850s meant less flow snow. But said SWVa was still likely to get snow showers. I'm down to a 20 percent chance now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 A lightning strike popped just north of Louisville KY with a squall. I was kind of hoping that the clearing might enhance lapse rates for places that see snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Hoping against hope to see some flakes but it looks like now even places like LeConte won't see much of anything.Holy smokes…https://x.com/babowling12/status/1736816349219803187?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Holy smokes…https://x.com/babowling12/status/1736816349219803187?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg.BTW… that guy works for Reed Timmer and he chases in the Appalachian Mts from SW Va to Tn/NC. He’s a great follower for live intel. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Wind is absolutely howling here. Pretty sure I am going to have to reset some Christmas lights. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Holy smokes…https://x.com/babowling12/status/1736816349219803187?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg . Man. And you know that isn't warm either!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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