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Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm


weatherwiz
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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The sustained winds were more impressive than the gusts here.....we had some good gusts, but it was the constant 30-40mph sustained bursts that would last a long time.

 

3 hours ago, CT Rain said:

The raw wind gust maps from the models are such a cancer. They're almost completely worthless.

Looking at the soundings on BUFKIT you could see as early as Friday that this one had potential to be a big problem in spots in a way that the typical events don't. 

I think another factor has been the duration of winds. We're usually a 3 hour window of the LLJ, but this event started at like 9 am for PWM and they were still gusting over 35 kt last hour. That's a long time to beat on infrastructure. 

Even if models like the HRRR and RAP tend to mix too deeply, there was a good signal for a long duration wind event greater than advisory thresholds.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

I think another factor has been the duration of winds. We're usually a 3 hour window of the LLJ, but this event started at like 9 am for PWM and they were still gusting over 35 kt last hour. That's a long time to beat on infrastructure. 

Even if models like the HRRR and RAP tend to mix too deeply, there was a good signal for a long duration wind event greater than advisory thresholds.

But did they ? Mesos nailed it 

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28 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

It’s a fooking disaster out here in Western Maine. Add elevation and snowpack to 6” of rain you get this shit show. This is the 4th damaging rain event we’ve had in 12 months. Folks are tired 

Fifth big (3.25"+) since October of last year.  The 2020 Grinch set a new Dec precip mark, broken by 3.25" on 12/23/22, and the current storm looks to finish 4"+.  The local tree damage ranks with the 2005 TS and is far above any previous leaf-off event here, even Oct 2017.

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What a shit show. Mom had pine tree land on house. Doesn't sound like water coming in. Meanwhile trying to get gas for genny was nuts. Tons of road closers, some were open but then closed on way back. What should have taken 25min was well over an hr. Wind still roaring. Couple shingles ripped off.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

I think another factor has been the duration of winds. We're usually a 3 hour window of the LLJ, but this event started at like 9 am for PWM and they were still gusting over 35 kt last hour. That's a long time to beat on infrastructure. 

Even if models like the HRRR and RAP tend to mix too deeply, there was a good signal for a long duration wind event greater than advisory thresholds.

Peak gusts here were 10 AM thru 2 PM, and I'm guessing they reached 50.  As I was walking back from the "marooned" pickup, and back and forth with the chainsaw, I kept looking up with every gust. Got hit with some twigs and heard a big fir break near the yard, but otherwise no harm - except the most thorough soaking in many years.  (The 40+ year-old rain jacket wasn't up to the task, plus the wind was ripping open the Velcro.)

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

What a shit show. Mom had pine tree land on house. Doesn't sound like water coming in. Meanwhile trying to get gas for genny was nuts. Tons of road closers, some were open but then closed on way back. What should have taken 25min was well over an hr. Wind still roaring. Couple shingles ripped off.

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You are getting nailed.  400K customers out in the state.  Assuming each customer is, say 2 1/2 people that would mean 1 million.  The entire population of the state is 1.37million.  That is nuts for a storm that was 100% liquid.

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7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

What a shit show. Mom had pine tree land on house. Doesn't sound like water coming in. Meanwhile trying to get gas for genny was nuts. Tons of road closers, some were open but then closed on way back. What should have taken 25min was well over an hr. Wind still roaring. Couple shingles ripped off.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Sounds like my afternoon.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Peak gusts here were 10 AM thru 2 PM, and I'm guessing they reached 50.  As I was walking back from the "marooned" pickup, and back and forth with the chainsaw, I kept looking up with every gust. Got hit with some twigs and heard a big fir break near the yard, but otherwise no harm - except the most thorough soaking in many years.  (The 40+ year-old rain jacket wasn't up to the task, plus the wind was ripping open the Velcro.)

I got soaked with my raincoat on today too, too much rain and wind. Anyone know of a site that gives yearly rainfall in our area to date? There has to be some huge totals in New England this year.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But did they ? Mesos nailed it 

 

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

They spit out 50-60 knots for every event like this. Very few actually do it.

My point was that this one it was clear that it was possible given how the soundings looked. 

I mean mesos were spitting out quite a large area of 60 kt gusts, which definitely didn't happen. But like Ryan said, it was a pretty solid signal for an extended period of 50 kt possible. 

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