CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Sell the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sell the snow Had to buy it first. Onto the period after NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Sell everything. Storm doesn't even have impressive rainfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Sell everything. Storm doesn't even have impressive rainfall totals. 3-5” in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a jog east on guidance. Winds more related to ern CT and especially RI and SE MA. Big rains CT as a result. So essentially last Monday in a nutshell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Hudson Valley track .. latest wind HRRR and rain 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: So essentially last Monday in a nutshell? Probably a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 This is Phil’s map ( he used to be a regular here until driven away) https://x.com/capecodweather/status/1736034738949775670?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 There is that appendage with a meso low on it. Strongest winds east of it. That looks to go over RI and pretty much over me. Best winds will be east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Probably a little stronger. If we get more rain here than a week ago…that’s gonna have some flooding implications. Last week had zero wind here…let’s see what this brings with regard to wind. And regarding Phil’s map…he has 50-60 mph winds here…that’s Isaias type winds here, I’m not buying that right now. The big rain for CT I do buy, but not those big winds…..? Maybe this will be the very rare time the winds do roar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If we get more rain here than a week ago…that’s gonna have some flooding implications. Last week had zero wind here…let’s see what this brings with regard to wind. And regarding Phil’s map…he has 50-60 mph winds here…that’s Isaias type winds here, I’m not buying that right now. The big rain for CT I do buy, but not those big winds…..? Maybe this will be the very rare time the winds do roar. Probably 40-50 there and most of CT I think. I honestly haven’t looked hard there…..maybe Ryan knows. But rain looks like an issue where you are to Ginxy. Strong LLJ converging with the land will bring some high totals just inland from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 If this low moves a little more west, then winds will be stronger. Certainly SE CT could do 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If we get more rain here than a week ago…that’s gonna have some flooding implications. Last week had zero wind here…let’s see what this brings with regard to wind. And regarding Phil’s map…he has 50-60 mph winds here…that’s Isaias type winds here, I’m not buying that right now. The big rain for CT I do buy, but not those big winds…..? Maybe this will be the very rare time the winds do roar. And I think rain will be less than last week, more in the 3” range with a little more wind than we saw last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this low moves a little more west, then winds will be stronger. Certainly SE CT could do 60. Oh ya, down there I agree completely they could blow 60 mph. Ya, that rain is a little excessive for this area…especially so due to last weeks deluge. Ground is saturated already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: And I think rain will be less than last week, more in the 3” range with a little more wind than we saw last week. Ironically, this looks to be more rain for here(central/WOR CT) than last week…I guess we’ll have to see how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If we get more rain here than a week ago…that’s gonna have some flooding implications. Last week had zero wind here…let’s see what this brings with regard to wind. And regarding Phil’s map…he has 50-60 mph winds here…that’s Isaias type winds here, I’m not buying that right now. The big rain for CT I do buy, but not those big winds…..? Maybe this will be the very rare time the winds do roar. The storm winds never seem to verify around here. Maybe 1 out of 10 times. What is forecast much better around me are the NW winds on the backside of a departing low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a jog east on guidance. Winds more related to ern CT and especially RI and SE MA. Big rains CT as a result. AWT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Let’s see what crazy solution the NAM brings shortly? Or if it tames down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12z hrrr over NYC and ups the winds a bit especially CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: And I think rain will be less than last week, more in the 3” range with a little more wind than we saw last week. With the HRV track the heaviest totals should be W CT to Berks and west . That’s usually how it works with that track . C and E CT seem more like 2” or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: 12z hrrr over NYC and ups the winds a bit especially CT. Ya, if this cuts west, then it could be pretty windy for sure here. That’s the big question at the moment for bigger winds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: With the HRV track the heaviest totals should be W CT to Berks and west . That’s usually how it works with that track . C and E CT seem more like 2” or so In general yeah, but strong LLJ and that second low will probably have a max a little east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: With the HRV track the heaviest totals should be W CT to Berks and west . That’s usually how it works with that track . C and E CT seem more like 2” or so 2” of rain looks like an easy feat here…those 4-5” totals are definitely eye opening if they pan out for us WOR peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 So exciting. Edge of our seat type stuff. 2023, the year of big rainers. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: In general yeah, but strong LLJ and that second low will probably have a max a little east too. I need approx 5.5” to hit 70” for the year. I was thinking 2-3” here for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 HRRR is pretty interesting in the 15z-18z time frame, especially southwest towards NYC/NJ. Could see some strong-to-severe thunderstorms if any convection can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So exciting. Edge of our seat type stuff. 2023, the year of big rainers. Lol..I know but it’s all we got at the moment. Hopefully by next week we’re entering into a more wintry idea as we approach our wheelhouse regarding winter climo… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I need approx 5.5” to hit 70” for the year. I was thinking 2-3” here for this one. Exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR is pretty interesting in the 15z-18z time frame, especially southwest towards NYC/NJ. Could see some strong-to-severe thunderstorms if any convection can develop. Yeah if it gets to be that we have breaks in overcast, that’s gonna help mix stuff down. Could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Impressive looking radar signature/precipitation shield already blossoming down south I must say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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