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Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm


weatherwiz
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4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So as much as you are a crazy SOB for wanting all this, you're mostly right on this one.

I think Connecticut got away with what could have been a lot worse as far as power outages, but just to our North in Massachusetts southeast Massachusetts and upward, they're dropping like flies.

CT had 86k at peak and probably 100 if you count UI customers . Thats no joke 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just glad it worked out and everyone got what they wanted out of it .I think the Swiss model team should stick hot chocolate and cheese and stay away from wind maps 

I’ll add a hat tip too. I’m always going to lean against high-end events but think there’s a lot of value in admitting when my thoughts are wrong. 

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20 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So as much as you are a crazy SOB for wanting all this, you're mostly right on this one.

I think Connecticut got away with what could have been a lot worse as far as power outages, but just to our North in Massachusetts southeast Massachusetts and upward, they're dropping like flies.

 

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good call Kev..tip if the cap to you pal.  

 

8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wasn’t much here but ya it definitely verified out east. I was talking to someone yesterday and they were comparing it to last weeks storm which felt stupid.

 

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ll add a hat tip too. I’m always going to lean against high-end events but think there’s a lot of value in admitting when my thoughts are wrong. 

 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Top o the morning to ya sweetheart .. :lol:

image.thumb.png.59af931cd8655cafa7c0afdb38e1f946.png

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

So many places around here have water like a foot from major roads.  Just so much water.

Small streams, drainages, big rivers.

5C11C0B2-EF69-4241-A858-30B2E1CEF899.thumb.jpeg.304caa81d52d72a1dcda09172eec0f9d.jpeg

Oh wow that is ugly and definitely not what was needed for holiday time.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just glad it worked out and everyone got what they wanted out of it .I think the Swiss model team should stick to hot chocolate and cheese and stay away from wind maps 

It was probably somewhere in the middle of the two maps. I know most found it impressive, but no ASOS hit 70 and most obs down there were 50-60. Up here was mostly 40-50. 

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ll add a hat tip too. I’m always going to lean against high-end events but think there’s a lot of value in admitting when my thoughts are wrong. 

The raw wind gust maps from the models are such a cancer. They're almost completely worthless.

Looking at the soundings on BUFKIT you could see as early as Friday that this one had potential to be a big problem in spots in a way that the typical events don't. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It was probably somewhere in the middle of the two maps. I know most found it impressive, but no ASOS hit 70 and most obs down there were 50-60. Up here was mostly 40-50. 

The sustained winds were more impressive than the gusts here.....we had some good gusts, but it was the constant 30-40mph sustained bursts that would last a long time.

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7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wasn’t much here but ya it definitely verified out east. I was talking to someone yesterday and they were comparing it to last weeks storm which felt stupid.

Two big differentiators between last week and this were

1) Track was a bit further west

2) We were already dealing with a pretty intense storm moving up the coast, unlike last week where I believe much of the deepening was occurring within our latitudes. 

Both these factors, especially a track more west helped to really pump in some higher theta-e air. Temperatures in the upper 50's to lower 60's with dews not far off helped substantially aid in the mixing of winds. There was also certainly some convective enhancement and on a more widespread basis. 

This was absolutely without a doubt a pretty high impact storm. This is exactly why events like last week can't be hyped up. People end up downplaying these setups often because they are way too overhyped and people don't prepare or plan as properly. 

This is why communication is such a huge factor in the field of forecasting. You want to save the strong language for when it is absolutely needed. 

Let's say this event did not pan out...if we went on the heels of back-to-back events where winds were hyped and it didn't pan out...people are going to continue to lose confidence and just brush off this potential in the future. 

Weather gets hyped so much that I think its actually starting to impact lives and lead to injuries and deaths...and it's because everything gets hyped up so much when something significant actually happens, you get people who just brush it off and end up putting themselves in harms way. Now you can place blame on people for not taking the warning, but when everything is hyped up and nothing happens...people are just going to stop taking these situations seriously. 

The hype for this event totally played out and it was needed...but what happened last week certainly probably lead people to downplay this.

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