OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Did you issue the latest AFD? 4-6" rn for mtns, with locally higher amounts. Ski areas are forked Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk No, not yet. I'm the swing shift tonight. But not looking great for the mountains before the Christmas holiday week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: I just checked out the 20z HRRR and saw some eye popping shadings on there for CT… any Mets concerned or are these #s likely inflated? Just a note since I am already dealing with this issue... If HWW continues for parts of eastern CT, superintendents are going to pull the plug... Especially in heavily wooded towns... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: I just checked out the 20z HRRR and saw some eye popping shadings on there for CT… any Mets concerned or are these #s likely inflated? Lol…nice little max right over my town…30 foot winds at 75 knots…Katie bar the door. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: I just checked out the 20z HRRR and saw some eye popping shadings on there for CT… any Mets concerned or are these #s likely inflated? More often than not, the raw gust output runs hot. Despite the scale being in knots, you're probably better off considering that to be mph, which is a 15% reduction. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, FXWX said: Just a note since I am already dealing with this issue... If HWW continues for parts of eastern CT, superintendents are going to pull the plug... Especially in heavily wooded towns... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaun Curry Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, FXWX said: Just a note since I am already dealing with this issue... If HWW continues for parts of eastern CT, superintendents are going to pull the plug... Especially in heavily wooded towns... When I was a Director of Administrative Services for an area school department, winds were a big issue when you had kids waiting at bus stops and a good possibility a school would lose power during the day. You'd rather cancel up front than have an early dismissal, especially with elementary school kids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…nice little max right over my town…30 foot winds at 75 knots…Katie bar the door. Right.. I saw that too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man, leaf drop is running pretty late up there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalpoleJoe Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Man, leaf drop is running pretty late up there! Bucket of death set-up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Special hybrid trees that keep their leaves all year round, just to maximize the destruction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 22 minutes ago, Shaun Curry said: When I was a Director of Administrative Services for an area school department, winds were a big issue when you had kids waiting at bus stops and a good possibility a school would lose power during the day. You'd rather cancel up front than have an early dismissal, especially with elementary school kids. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Dick Toleris finally bailed on the NAM winds most knew weren't happening. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dick Toleris finally bailed on the NAM winds most knew weren't happening. The fact he even entertained them was comical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dick Toleris finally bailed on the NAM winds most knew weren't happening. AMOUT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dick Toleris finally bailed on the NAM winds most knew weren't happening. Did he proclaim Uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 It all depends on the lapse rates. - the wind field off the deck is reasonably confident. The ability to mix down? That is rarely so in our climatology for a myriad of limitations. So you kind have to begin there and start adding offsets as they are implicated by modeling. Knee jerk shrugging it’s not happening in eye rolling doubt is not one of those offsets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Still thinking 40 to 45 mph here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 This is about the peak of it on the 12z swiss. Let’s see how this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is about the peak of it on the 12z swiss. Let’s see how this verifies. Someone "Wood" find that swiss miss very underwhelming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is about the peak of it on the 12z swiss. Let’s see how this verifies. That’s not all that impressive…lol. But I’m sure that’s probably more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Euro , GFS, NAM, HRRR , HREF and Dendy finds a model that underperforms and the typical Debbie’s think it’s right. Classic . This is going to be so fun tomorrow to bump their posts( while they’re sitting in the dark for a day or two no less) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 it's raining!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 This is about the peak of it on the latest HRRR. Let’s see how this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro , GFS, NAM, HRRR , HREF and Dendy finds a model that underperforms and the typical Debbie’s think it’s right. Classic Good luck! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is about the peak of it on the latest HRRR. Let’s see how this verifies Under clowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Under clowns I’m thinking 60-65 here. What’s your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Wind clowns could be worse than snow clowns. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m thinking 60-65 here. What’s your forecast? On your Davis? Or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Let’s see if Scooter answers . He never makes forecasts that can be judged 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Of course gas the generator and it looks like we might only gust to 40. Fail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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