weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 5:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said: The FOUS numbers are tamed by 4 or 5 kts. LGA went from 41 to 33, actually ... Expand Going to need convection for these higher end gusts to occur. And even then, those gusts would probably be rather localized unless we get a damn good line of convection to develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 6:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see how we tickle 60 here but we’re prepared if it does. Expand They’ll keep us safe https://x.com/eversourcect/status/1736440251361476729?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 6:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: They’ll keep us safe https://x.com/eversourcect/status/1736440251361476729?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Expand lol oh yea, we can sleep comfortably tonight knowing they are out there re-connecting wires. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 6:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see how we tickle 60 here but we’re prepared if it does. Expand I don’t think you do either, but central and eastern CT (especially coastal areas obviously) are probably going to get real windy. Euro gone wild at 12z. Take 20% off those and we’re still talking 45-50kt gusts down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 6:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Continuous can kicking? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 6:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see how we tickle 60 here but we’re prepared if it does. Expand A better shot of 60* than 60mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 We could have sneaky severe potential in Connecticut, Massachusetts tomorrow I think. I mentioned it the other day in the other thread with those warm hydrostats punching up into the area, and the actual surface trough istill west of the area that can be interesting with all that mid upper level jet mechanics going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaun Curry Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 5:19 PM, WinterWolf said: Supplicates….Tip is that you? Expand No, but I'm honored! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 18z stuff is pretty darn nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 6:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Continuous can kicking? Expand Probably an Olympic event by 2030 given warming trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:16 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z stuff is pretty darn nasty. Expand Nasty Ginxy ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I would be ecstatic if we could tear some power lines down early tomorrow am in Lexington for several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:36 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would be ecstatic if we could tear some power lines down early tomorrow am in Lexington for several hours Expand Power out, candles on…with a little bump n grind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Gonna have to have all 3 NWS offices up whole region to HWW . Better to do it with 4PM package than look silly and do it in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:16 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z stuff is pretty darn nasty. Expand 18z though… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:48 PM, WinterWolf said: 18z though… Expand Doesn’t mean anything this close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 There may actually be low potential for tornado or two tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:51 PM, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t mean anything this close. Expand Ok that makes sense…although Walt Drag said 18z is usually not as reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:16 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z stuff is pretty darn nasty. Expand High res gone absolutely wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:54 PM, WxWatcher007 said: High res gone absolutely wild. Expand Whhhhheeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna have to have all 3 NWS offices up whole region to HWW . Better to do it with 4PM package than look silly and do it in the morning Expand Still time to pull a November 1950? LOL But in all seriousness I'm curious what kind of enhanced warnings they would use if that magnitude storm happened today. 70 sustained in HFD, 80 sustained in BOS, gusts to 110 in Concord? I feel like a HWW wouldnt suffice...maybe like a PDS HWW or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 9:09 PM, WJX231 said: Still time to pull a November 1950? LOL But in all seriousness I'm curious what kind of enhanced warnings they would use if that magnitude storm happened today. 70 sustained in HFD, 80 sustained in BOS, gusts to 110 in Concord? I feel like a HWW wouldnt suffice...maybe like a PDS HWW or something? Expand They probably are going to wait until last minute to up to HWW. I noticed they’ve already upped the wind speeds in the advisory to HWW speeds. They are so slow to react even when it’s captain obvious. It really doesn’t matter. Beast incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:16 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z stuff is pretty darn nasty. Expand Pretty notable how long the duration of potentially strong winds are around here. The LLJ almost pivots rather than sweeping through, so it's nearly all day the 18z HRRR is forecasting 45+ knots at PWM. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 9:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said: They probably are going to wait until last minute to up to HWW. I noticed they’ve already upped the wind speeds in the advisory to HWW speeds. They are so slow to react even when it’s captain obvious. Expand Yeah I've noticed lately that they seem to be more conservative in general. But like even on the outer cape and islands the HWW only states "gusts up to 65". Usually they go 70 or higher in this type of event. Then again, I don't think that the guidance is as bullish with this one as it was with those other events. Still a solid event but probably not another 10/29/17 or 03/02/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 9:15 PM, OceanStWx said: Pretty notable how long the duration of potentially strong winds are around here. The LLJ almost pivots rather than sweeping through, so it's nearly all day the 18z HRRR is forecasting 45+ knots at PWM. Expand The degree of 3km CAPE being advertised by the HRRR is fairly eye opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 9:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said: They probably are going to wait until last minute to up to HWW. I noticed they’ve already upped the wind speeds in the advisory to HWW speeds. They are so slow to react even when it’s captain obvious. It really doesn’t matter. Beast incoming Expand They didn't though. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 9:15 PM, OceanStWx said: Pretty notable how long the duration of potentially strong winds are around here. The LLJ almost pivots rather than sweeping through, so it's nearly all day the 18z HRRR is forecasting 45+ knots at PWM. Expand Yeah I feel like it slowed a bit. I noticed that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 8:53 PM, weatherwiz said: There may actually be low potential for tornado or two tomorrow Expand Blows my mind to see this possibility in December around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 9:20 PM, OceanStWx said: They didn't though. Expand They did . This morning they had gust to 50. Now it’s 55 Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On 12/17/2023 at 9:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: They did . This morning they had gust to 50. Now it’s 55 Beer? Expand HWW isn't 55 mph. The way the graphic to text works, you might be talking increasing wind gusts from 51 mph to 53 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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