Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm

[weatherwiz]

A potent low pressure system developing across Florida today rapidly moves northeast up along the East coast Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a strong and amplifying shortwave trough digs across the Ohio Valley, swinging a strong cold front across the region. Out ahead of the low pressure system, unseasonably mild and moist air surges into New England, resulting in several daily record warm temperatures likely within the region (with the warmest temperatures overnight Sunday and Monday morning). Combination of temperatures and dewpoints soaring through the 40's and into the 50's with precipitable water values ranging between 1.30'' and 1.60'' and very strong dynamics will result in torrential rainfall overspread the region. Widespread rainfall totals of 2-5'' are likely across the region which will result in urban and poor-drainage flooding with stream and perhaps some rivers overflowing their banks as well. 

Combination of a deepening low pressure system and strong high pressure over the central Plains will also result in a strong pressure gradient across the region. This should yield windy conditions region wide as well with sustained winds ranging anywhere from 15 mph in the more sheltered areas to as high as 20-30 mph in the more exposed areas. About a few thousand feet above the ground will exist a very strong low-level jet characterized by 925mb winds in excess of 60 knots. Where the strongest core of low-level winds traverses will ultimately depend on the track, however, it appears coastal region of Connecticut and coastal eastern New England will stand the greatest chance for the core of these winds to traverse. 

While it will be on the windier side thanks to the pressure gradient, the greatest question is whether we can tap into this low-level jet and raise the concern for wind gusts of 50-60+ mph which would result in potential for downed trees and scattered power outages. This will also be determined by the exact track of the low pressure. Some things to watch out for which could enhance the potential to mix down some of these winds is the potential for convection. Given modest lapse rates, instability is expected to be very weak, however, the presence of a rather moist low-level airmass and higher theta-e air may result in some very weak instability traversing the region. Given the poor lapse rates and nearly saturated thermal profiles, it will be very difficult to really tap into these winds and mix them down without the aid of convection or steeper lapse rates. All in all, the strongest winds should be confined closer to the Connecticut shoreline (maybe even just inland) where winds could gusts 40-45 mph and towards eastern southern New England where there could be some gusts 45-50 mph. There are some indications though there could be a low topped squall line with lightning which tries to sneak into coastal areas from New Jersey...this is something which really needs to be watched.

Given we're on the heels of what was a pretty intense rainstorm just one week ago, it is possible the flooding potential here could be elevated, especially along stream and rivers and within areas which are prone to flooding. 

As the system departs to the Northeast and we're introduced with cold air advection and with some pretty intense vorticity around, it is very possible we see widespread snow showers develop as Monday afternoon progresses and especially Monday night and Tuesday and perhaps some heavier snow showers which could result in some localized minor accumulations.  

[ROOSTA]

I commend you Paul on an excellent write-up.
It's going to be wild down here tonight. There are no watch's or warnings yet, should be forthcoming from the SPC and NWS.
Impacts will be stronger in many ways than a tropic system.
Roosta's WX Command Ctr. is up and running. LOL 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I commend you Paul on an excellent write-up.
It's going to be wild down here tonight. There are no watch's or warnings yet, should be forthcoming from the SPC and NWS.
Impacts will be stronger in many ways than a tropic system.
Roosta's WX Command Ctr. is up and running. LOL 

Definitely going to be a long night down that way. Nothing scarier than overnight tornado potential 

[Damage In Tolland]

lol. Take all those way way up 

[Snowcrazed71]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

lol. Take all those way way up 

Take all what way up? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Box might leave it for next shift to move everyone to HWW ,but this looks fairly close to most modeling. 

[Sn0waddict]

Could be wrong but I feel like generally the RGEM does well with wind predictions.  I’m curious for that it will show at 18z

[CoastalWx]

Not sure if the philosophy changed, but BOX loves those ensemble probs for winds. But, right at the shore may have trouble getting uber gusts because of the inversion with cooler SSTs.  I don’t know if those ensembles account for that. Those maps seem to hug the coast too much in these events. Usually best gusts are just away from the south coast shoreline. 

[weathafella]

Mesos pretty aggressive.  At what point does HRR get into its useful range?

[Damage In Tolland]

Should be hearing a lot of folks both singing this and firing up saws come Monday afternoon and much of next week .Great tune . Give it a listen. 

 

[weatherwiz]

There may be some scattered thunderstorms which develop ahead of the main rain area Sunday evening. This is well before the core of the LLJ arrives, but still decent winds aloft. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We wild 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Destroyed 

 

[weatherwiz]

Looking at 18z wind threat...pretty meh for majority. Strongest winds may clip far southeast CT but probably more so southern RI and SE MA. Scott right too...strongest gusts likely just inland away from immediate coast. There are going to be some wild rain totals. I think there will be a max strip of 4-6'' somewhere. 

[moneypitmike]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should be hearing a lot of folks both singing this and firing up saws come Monday afternoon at not much of next week .Great tune . Give it a listen. 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at 18z wind threat...pretty meh for majority. Strongest winds may clip far southeast CT but probably more so southern RI and SE MA. Scott right too...strongest gusts likely just inland away from immediate coast. There are going to be some wild rain totals. I think there will be a max strip of 4-6'' somewhere. 

Just ignore guidance and make your own ideas up 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just ignore guidance and make your own ideas up 

southeast wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Not too shabby.  With no leaves, like a strong arctic front.....except it'll be 60*.

[Damage In Tolland]

E-lerts issued 

https://x.com/eweather13/status/1736178443652370776?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should be hearing a lot of folks both singing this and firing up saws come Monday afternoon at not much of next week .Great tune . Give it a listen. 

 

I'll get good firewood for free.

[Typhoon Tip]

The old school FOUS grid keeps warming the T1 level temperature. This 18z run did so again and also drives 562 hydrostats to LGA-BOS. 

Instability may become more instrumental for this system as those numbers reflect a more barotropic sounding - ie not as protected by smeared warm frontal inversion like is typical. Cleaner momentum in the Z coordinate … 

There’s a wind bomb with our address on it - who knows if this system is the delivery but this wind signal is more impressive to me at least per these coarse synoptic indicators. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The old school FOUS grid keeps warming the T1 level temperature. This 18z run did so again and also drives 562 hydrostats to LGA-BOS. 

Instability may become more instrumental for this system as those numbers reflect a more barotropic sounding - ie not as protected by smeared warm frontal inversion like is typical. Cleaner momentum in the Z coordinate … 

There’s a wind bomb with our address on it - who knows if this system is the delivery but this wind signal is more impressive to me at least per these coarse synoptic indicators. 

WTTE bro 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just ignore guidance and make your own ideas up 

OK.  East winds veering to SE, sustained140 gusting to 220.

[moneypitmike]

The difference between a windy rain storm thread and a modest snowstorm thread is about 50 pages of posts.

[Torch Tiger]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

E-lerts issued 

https://x.com/eweather13/status/1736178443652370776?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

let's goooooo

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WTTE bro 

Please be very careful and safe.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Please be very careful and safe.

 

Good luck down that way. Hopefully you have a genny with enough gas for a few days 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

I'll get good firewood for free.

Yeah but you won't be able to burn it for a while.

[ma blizzard]

0z HRRR gone wild 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

0z HRRR gone wild 

Not backing down

[DavisStraight]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yeah but you won't be able to burn it for a while.

Next year if I split it right away, unless it's oak, I wait two years.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Not backing down

Lost the dong appendage.