WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 50 minutes ago, stormy said: As progged by the GEFS, the 28 - 30 system is still too warm. But, it may be setting the stage for the next system by pulling colder air down from the Lakes. Yes, this is fantasy-land beyond 300 hrs. but we could have a winner in the first 5 days of Jan. Source of origination, northwest Gulf is prime all the way back to the 60's. Usually a general track to Alabama/ southeast North Carolina and up the east coast has produced. Recently, eastward across the Gulf intensifying up the east coast as the GFS paints is good. Upper air temps. look good to support snow. The GEFS contradicts itself at 360 by showing rain with a minus 4 850 and the 540 in N.C...... The Op may be onto something. Looks perfect lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 44 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: we used to have standards on these boards? fixed it for you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Compared to 6z, 12z GEFS show a nice step in the right direction for the 28-30th timeframe. Obvious signs of a low coming out of the gulf and more of a HP signal to the north. Even bit of a CAD showing up. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, mappy said: people who post 300hr+ maps should go sit a corner and think about what they've done wrong Please allow me to address your concern. My post was a critque of the 240 hr. GEFS and why it probably won't work because of thermals, but it could set the stage for the next system. Regarding 300+ maps, LOL, this site and thread is loaded with 360 and 384 maps. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormy said: Please allow me to address your concern. My post was a critque of the 240 hr. GEFS and why it probably won't work because of thermals, but it could set the stage for the next system. Regarding 300+ maps, LOL, this site and thread is loaded with 360 and 384 maps. I know. Yall should be ashamed of yourselves 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: fixed it for you 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, mappy said: I know. Yall should be ashamed of yourselves We are, but we're having a lot of fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, mappy said: I know. Yall should be ashamed of yourselves i think it's one thing to post very high level maps trying to establish how the pattern might evolve over the ensuing two-three weeks. But looking at individual storms and upper air temps on a localized level... come on man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: i think it's one thing to post very high level maps trying to establish how the pattern might evolve over the ensuing two-three weeks. But looking at individual storms and upper air temps on a localized level... come on man. i shouldn't even be in this thread lol, i offer nothing of substance. nor do i pay attention to anything beyond 3 days. yall crazy chasing patterns 10+ days out. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, mappy said: i shouldn't even be in this thread lol, i offer nothing of substance. nor do i pay attention to anything beyond 3 days. yall crazy chasing patterns 10+ days out. You can contribute anywhere you wish... but over the last 15 years the pattern that lead to every significantly snowy period or MECS+ level event showed up on guidance well past 10 days. Dec 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 2014, Feb/Mar 2015, Jan 2016, March 2018 (yea that's it, its been that long since we had a legitimately snowy period or a region wide MECS level event) all those periods were being discussed and analyzed when they were 15 days away. Not a single one snuck up on us at like day 5. Maybe the discreet event within those windows did but the pattern that made those storms possible was on guidance way further out. Lately most of our snow has popped up in the medium range, but that is because we've spent 90% of the last 7 years in a horrible crap pattern for snow and the only snow we've had is when we just got really lucky and fluked into it. Yea those won't show up at long ranges. But if we are actually headed for a truly snowy period, as I think we might be, the inception of it should show itself on the long range guidance. 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i think it's one thing to post very high level maps trying to establish how the pattern might evolve over the ensuing two-three weeks. But looking at individual storms and upper air temps on a localized level... come on man. My post was basically focused on how the pattern may evolve over the next 2 - 3 weeks. My 378 map was not intended to offend you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 I know for me, I'm not looking for distinct threats at hr 240...just whether the pattern is changing. And on that side of things...we've had a lot of positive moved on the ensembles the last several days, haven't we? Don't put the cart before the horse...getting the pattern to not look completely crappy going into January is step one, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, stormy said: My post was basically focused on how the pattern may evolve over the next 2 - 3 weeks. My 378 map was not intended to offend you. No one is offended. Just messing around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 35 minutes ago, mappy said: i shouldn't even be in this thread lol, i offer nothing of substance. nor do i pay attention to anything beyond 3 days. yall crazy chasing patterns 10+ days out. You offer an ineffable je ne sais quoi which I refer to as Mappiness ETA: And I say that as someone who contributes almost nothing myself. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Any word on the 12z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Any word on the 12z EPS? still good 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 12z EPS D15, and the latest edition of the weeklies for the first week of Jan. Improvement in the NAO domain for early Jan. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z EPS D15, and the latest edition of the weeklies for the first week of Jan. Improvement in the NAO domain for early Jan. that split flow, -EPO, and BN heights near the 50/50 region is drool worthy 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Chuck might be worried about the 'shrinking' Aleutian trough, but for most of the rest of us that is one hell of a nice look for early Jan on the Euro weeklies. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 25 minutes ago, cbmclean said: You offer an ineffable je ne sais quoi which I refer to as Mappiness ETA: And I say that as someone who contributes almost nothing myself. This. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Chuck might be worried about the 'shrinking' Aleutian trough, but for most of the rest of us that is one hell of a nice look for early Jan on the Euro weeklies. I'll wait for Ralphs interpretation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Chuck might be worried about the 'shrinking' Aleutian trough, but for most of the rest of us that is one hell of a nice look for early Jan on the Euro weeklies. just for funsies, this is heading into Feb. god damn 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: just for funsies, this is heading into Feb. god damn A -NAO episode in early Jan would be a bonus imo. If we are going to see a sustained period of blocking in the NA, it will probably occur late Jan through Feb. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just for funsies, this is heading into Feb. god damn I’m glad I went on the high side for the snowfall contest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just for funsies, this is heading into Feb. god damn Such language in this forum!! I'm shocked! LOL!! But seriously, that's amazing going into February if that pans out! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see individuals as temps are still warmish, but I’d take my chances here. If the bottom panel is an actual already organized low pressure moving from around Atlanta to the coast then we have something. If it’s a phase job or transfer then many days forthcoming of vastly changing model crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 hours ago, mappy said: people who post 300hr+ maps should go sit a corner and think about what they've done wrong We should have a sub forum that restricts model posting to 5 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 41 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: still good Good. Let's keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: A -NAO episode in early Jan would be a bonus imo. If we are going to see a sustained period of blocking in the NA, it will probably occur late Jan through Feb. Maybe. But maybe 2010 skews our perception. Looking at the 5 best comps 1958 and 2010 the best blocking came in Feb or March. But 1966, 1987 and 2016 the best blocking was in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 We should have a sub forum that restricts OPERATIONAL model posting to 5 days awayFixed it for you. Ensembles are very useful up to the 10-14 day window, especially when analyzing trends and the big picture pattern. Ensembles are models as well. Posting 300 hour surface maps / thermals? Useless. The distinction matters, IMO. It’s encouraging to see the positive trends continue at h5 - especially in the NAO domain and seeing the PAC Jet relax. I honestly think we have a better shot around the 28th-31st than many think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts