CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Long range GEPs looks odd at the end. The NPac low seems to have moved over to the Bering Strait. completely making me think about Chuck's post yesterday about it disappearing. The strength and position of the NPAC low can vary, but it won't likely 'disappear'. It is a semi-permanent feature in a Nino, just as the NPAC ridge is during a Nina. The NPAC Jet character (extended/retracted, shifted northward/southward) is a factor in determining the exact location and strength of that low in the mid levels. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 A parade of lows across the southern US, exiting the SE/MA coast. Nino baby. There will be no lack of chances. Eventually some cold air will get involved. 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: A parade of lows across the southern US, exiting the SE/MA coast. Nino baby. There will be no lack of chances. Eventually some cold air will get involved. It’s only a matter of time when one of those exit the coast, becomes a 50/50 low, locks in a H over Quebec - while the next is strengthening in the TN valley. And well, we know what’s next. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Signal on the GEFS between Christmas and NYE for a possible threat to track. We probably want to see a weaker wave slide south of us but I’ll let the smarter folks weigh in. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 There’s still a good consensus among the 3 global ensembles on the general pattern for the 5 day period at the end of their 12z runs today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 56 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s only a matter of time when one of those exit the coast, becomes a 50/50 low, locks in a H over Quebec - while the next is strengthening in the TN valley. And well, we know what’s next. Hell yesss!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: Signal on the GEFS between Christmas and NYE for a possible threat to track. We probably want to see a weaker wave slide south of us but I’ll let the smarter folks weigh in. Definitely something to watch. Hope it holds as we get closer!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 19 minutes ago, nj2va said: Signal on the GEFS between Christmas and NYE for a possible threat to track. We probably want to see a weaker wave slide south of us but I’ll let the smarter folks weigh in. My prediction is that you will probably want to be in Deep creek for this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: My prediction is that you will probably want to be in Deep creek for this one. We’ll be in Deep Creek then before heading up to northern NH to celebrate New Year’s / turning 40. But if Deep Creek looks to get more snow before/after New Years, I’ll cancel the trip. Snow is serious business. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 I like the h5 look at the end of the 18z GEFS run out west. Significant improvement. It has looked pretty meh compared to the EPS the last few runs, and the extended tool depicts how this will likely evolve a few days later. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Would like to see a better look in the NA though. Hopefully the EPS has the right idea for early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1736544821244838020?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 58 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1736544821244838020?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: I like the h5 look at the end of the 18z GEFS run out west. Significant improvement. It has looked pretty meh compared to the EPS the last few runs, and the extended tool depicts how this will likely evolve a few days later. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 EPS was not a good model last year. Like 10 times they showed digital snow and a good pattern.. 18z GEFS is a bit concerning at the end: The Aleutian low is evaporating and the NAO doesn't really have a good loading pattern to go negative.. I get the demand for the Euro to have ensembles, but man it's off 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 GEFS looks better, so far cold is arriving faster, further W GOA/Aleutian low, stronger 50/50 low and +PNA/N Canadian ridging 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: EPS was not a good model last year. Like 10 times they showed digital snow and a good pattern.. 18z GEFS is a bit concerning at the end: The Aleutian low is evaporating and the NAO doesn't really have a good loading pattern to go negative.. I get the demand for the Euro to have ensembles, but man it's off Chuck, you wanna know what's really off? 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 46 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: GEFS looks better, so far cold is arriving faster, further W GOA/Aleutian low, stronger 50/50 low and +PNA/N Canadian ridging now starting to retrograde westward, nice +PNA signal and overall good slider pattern, significantly better w/ shifts towards the EPS, still got a lot of work to do, but now we're building heights in W Canada/E AK as well as nice confluence 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Chuck, you wanna know what's really off? This is freaking hilarious! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 I once again used that December will be a +2SD +EPO (dominate trough over Alaska) to roll forward to January, and again see that the very warm conditions usually continue. Dec Analogs: https://ibb.co/TTnjcDS Dec Temp map: https://ibb.co/cxjrYFz Jan roll forward 500mb pattern: https://ibb.co/rdsYCpF Jan roll forward US Temp map: https://ibb.co/zbqBKKL These roll forward means are giving us a baseline +2 to +4 Jan to work with. Not saying it will absolutely happen, but the signal is pretty strong. It's an anomalous event, this +EPO Dec. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Chuck, you wanna know what's really off? I know, you like when I make a judgement about something. It makes it fair game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1736544821244838020?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw What did I say just a day or two ago!? For late December, models originally had the MJO heading into phase 4 before dying out. Then they showed it going into phase 8-1. Then they showed the MJO getting to phase 7 before going null and now they are showing a more bullish phase 8-1 depiction again. You honestly can’t trust these long range MJO forecasts many have come to obsess over.It’s best to focus on the big picture and the main drivers behind a particular pattern. Any given model run’s 10-14+ day output (temps, storm track / precip type, positioning / strength of PNA , etc) is less important than the upper air pattern upstream that led to it. There are so many different moving pieces that will contribute to the advertised pattern change coming after Christmas. Expecting models to hammer down those exact details 10-14+ days out is a fools errand. As we all know, something that seems relatively small in the moment can lead to a domino effect downstream - vastly changing the surface outcome (IE: the difference between a long range snowstorm signal and a big ‘ole swing and a miss) Best thing we can do is look at the big picture and to analyze trends from run to run - which is the PSU approach. Now that we’re roughly 7 days away from Christmas, it is nice to actually see ensembles trending in our direction for a change, instead of seeing things get can-kicked back to D15 & beyond; something we’ve grown accustomed to over the past several years. Here’s to the positive momentum continuing this week! We could certainly use a win around here. IMO, we are honing in on a workable h5 setup to start off the new year. One that *could* lead to an areawide 3-6”/4-8” type event if we can avoid getting a super wound up coastal hugger. The southern jet is active and juiced up, this much we know. Now let’s get some seasonally cold air to our north and we’ll be in business. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 I once again used that December will be a +2SD +EPO (dominate trough over Alaska) to roll forward to January, and again see that the very warm conditions usually continue. Dec Analogs: https://ibb.co/TTnjcDS Dec Temp map: https://ibb.co/cxjrYFz Jan roll forward 500mb pattern: https://ibb.co/rdsYCpF Jan roll forward US Temp map: https://ibb.co/zbqBKKL These roll forward means are giving us a baseline +2 to +4 Jan to work with. Not saying it will absolutely happen, but the signal is pretty strong. It's an anomalous event, this +EPO Dec.“Very warm” is kind of a disingenuous way to characterize December thus far. Sure, it hasn’t been cold (rarely is in December nowadays - especially before winter has officially begun) but we also haven’t torched like we saw back in 2015 and in other strong niño years. It’s primarily been in the 40s here and I’ve seen 3” of snow so far this season. Certainly nothing to write home about, but it’s been better than what many, including myself, were expecting just 3-4 weeks ago. Highly doubt January ends at +4. I don’t think it’s front to end cold - nature of the niño - but I am going to go out on a limb here and say that January ends up being average to -1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 06z GFS has some snow chances out in lala land (aka Day 10-15) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS has some snow chances out in lala land (aka Day 10-15) It’s 384hr so obviously not saying that’s going to happen precisely, but that scenario IS exactly what that sort of longwave pattern can produce. That’s the cold area wide 3-6/4-8” type deal. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS has some snow chances out in lala land (aka Day 10-15) Rain to snow for the 28th with a trailing piece of energy and cold HP pressing south, then with cold in place the next wave tracks underneath and snows on us. That idea has been showing up on the ens mean, and makes sense with the advertised pattern evolution. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS definitely trending more to EPS with more ridging out west and deeper trough in east. 6Z today compared to yesterday. 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 The evaporating Aleutian low is no longer evaporating on the GEFS. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS definitely trending more to EPS with more ridging out west and deeper trough in east. 6Z today compared to yesterday. More ridging poking into Greenland too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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