Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: -NAO builds! 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 This was the best EPS run we’ve had all year . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: -NAO builds as well as retrograding the heights in W NA further W into Alaska, as well as the aleutian low Damn. Look at that ridge out west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO, dreaming of a white Christmas Eve? With a bullseye imby. Lol. Well, it did happen in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Damn. Look at that ridge out west. exactly what we've been missing the past 7 years 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: With a bullseye imby. Lol. Well, it did happen in 2012. And the day after Christmas that year as well 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: This was the best EPS run we’ve had all year . Yes absolutely. Pacific trough is shoved west, solid arctic high for cross polar flow, and much better cooperation from the Altantic. Let's keep it going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes absolutely. Pacific trough is shoved west, solid arctic high for cross polar flow, and much better cooperation from the Altantic. Let's keep it going. Hoping we can go on a 3 to 4 week heater from maybe mid January to Mid February where we get several accumulating snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 looks great, favorable storm track with plenty cold, amazing eps run 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: I don't know why anyone cares what the GFS depicts beyond 5 days.... That’s silly because up to 360 hours is intensely presented and discussed here Models don’t predict weather but rather give examples of possible outcomes keeping in mind to cover as many bases as possible. Many of the alphabet indexes that have become popular in last 10 years I find unproven. The Enso and NAO and AO have stopped being as reliable as they were thru about 2012. Pacific was important but no where near as dominant as now. Since models really never did much beyond 3-5 days when times were Good and in this changing, unpredictable environment, they are in even more trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hoping we can go on a 3 to 4 week heater from maybe mid January to Mid February where we get several accumulating snows. My wag is that we get a nice period from post-Xmas to Jan 10-14 or so. Then a reset for a week or two, then hopefully a real heater from late Jan to mid February. We’ll see. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: exactly what we've been missing the past 7 years It hasn't been 'missing' that whole time. We have had timely periods of +PNA/-EPO that contributed to cold/snowy periods. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: My wag is that we get a nice period from post-Xmas to Jan 10-14 or so. Then a reset for a week or two, then hopefully a real heater from late Jan to mid February. We’ll see. 2010 was very high on the analogs. It’s very possible we follow a similar progression just displaced 2 weeks later. Obviously I’m not expecting it to get to that extreme. That takes a lot of luck on top of a good pattern. 1958 followed a similar progression but our area got unlucky during the January window and had to wait for the mid Feb to mid March window to hit big. But there is a lot of history to two favorable periods with a reload. 1966 also, reload early Feb before another snow event late Feb. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: It hasn't been 'missing' that whole time. We have had timely periods of +PNA/-EPO that contributed to cold/snowy periods. yes but generally we have been missing that, 2022 had a favorable pattern in Jan besides 2019/2022 past 7 years haven't been really good here(except 2021 for northern areas?) compare to last up period for NE US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: looks great, favorable storm track with plenty cold, amazing eps run That was the best ensemble run I've seen since the latter half of January 2010. No complaints. Now, let's pray it comes to fruition. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 ... maybe it's just me but I hope the run comes to fruition and has snow. Despite the "best", "amazing", and "favorable" adjectives, the ensemble mean snow here for the next 15 days is less than 1". I'm certain the analogs are more favorable. ... and yes if the long wave pattern is favorable the snow may come. ... and of course, day 15 is just before our great period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 28 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: looks great, favorable storm track with plenty cold, amazing eps run Since @Ji be asleep on the bus I will fill in: Ah man, you can already see to the backside of the good pattern. A definite degradation from 300 to 360. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 PSA When to worry about a post implying it’s not gonna snow The post is supported by sound logical analysis citing reliable data When not to worry about posts implying it won’t snow The post is supported by a random plot from a 300 hour operational run. The post cites absolutely no reliable data or evidence The post is based on feelings and emotional venting 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 55 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: -NAO builds as well as retrograding the heights in W NA further W into Alaska, as well as the aleutian low I forget what these maps have looked like. My goodness. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 28 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: yes but generally we have been missing that, 2022 had a favorable pattern in Jan besides 2019/2022 past 7 years haven't been really good here(except 2021 for northern areas?) compare to last up period for NE US Many of our snowiest periods historically don't feature a ridge out west, in particular during a Nino. Good to see it show up on the means, especially in the absence of a -NAO. Ofc the last few runs of the EPS are suggesting a -NAO period may develop as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm. Last I heard the GFS was in fourth place for the global 500 HP metric, behind the euro, Canadian and ukmet. Now I'm not sure if that was only talking about the operational or includes their ensemble systems as well. Also not sure if there is any difference in global performance vs NH LR patter in the cold season, which is what we really care about. I wish I had some idea where to get that data easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm. The GEFS look is decent, but not drool worthy. It has backed off a bit over the last couple runs on the amped western ridge, with the most notable +heights over Hudson Bay and a slightly +NAO at the end of the run. My guess is it is probably a few days behind(or the EPS is a bit ahead) with the general progression of the pattern. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm. well thank fucking god you were here to let us know all that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: well thank fucking god you were here to let us know all that. GEFS isn't bad at all. Keep expectations in-check....that's all. And don't be angry if the epic eps look doesn't play out verbatim. Sheeeesh. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS isn't bad at all. Keep expectations in-check....that's all. And don't be angry if the epic eps look doesn't play out verbatim. Sheeeesh. I gotta admit, his post made me LOL. You do have a habit of swooping in here and dropping a deuce on a good vibe. 1 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Long range GEPs looks odd at the end. The NPac low seems to have moved over to the Bering Strait. completely making me think about Chuck's post yesterday about it disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Damn. Look at that ridge out west. Now thats a thing of Beauty!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I will gladly take that 6 inches of wasted water right off your Waterworld hands, right now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: I don't know why anyone cares what the GFS depicts beyond 5 days.... That’s a little ironic coming from you. But you’re not wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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