NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 looks ok... just doesn't do anything to the snow mean. I've seen worse odds for cold temps though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect. It seems to be because the suppressed members are cold and the members that have a more amplified storm are warm/rain. The mean looks good but it’s misleading. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: So All of your example result in cold and snowy for Mid Atlantic ? I don’t think so Maybe not, but in an El Nino our chances are better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: looks ok... just doesn't do anything to the snow mean. I've seen worse odds for cold temps though. Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm. Is it time to panic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm. so you are saying time to plan a trip to the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 It seems to be because the suppressed members are cold and the members that have a more amplified storm are warm/rain. The mean looks good but it’s misleading. Yea and that’s a sign the setup isn’t that good. There’s too much ridging ahead of the low. There’s a N/S push but it’s timed with the low so we have a LP sitting at the lakes. Does nothing to help hold in any cold. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Is it time to panic? Not necessarily. In 2016 the long wave pattern flipped very early January but we had to suffer a couple more rainstorms in the following weeks even in a great long wave pattern because it took a while to establish enough cold. So long as the progression toward a -nao remains we should eventually be ok. My frustration with that 6z run yesterday was that such a perfect h5 solution should have been able to overcome the reap antecedent thermals. But it would take something extreme like that until we get a truly colder thermal profile in place. The pattern has flipped. The North American thermals will be cooling. But it might take a while. That said I’ve been open about the elephant in the room. If we get the canonical pattern we expect in a Nino and it’s just too warm all winter at least we’ve answered the question and it’s settled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea and that’s a sign the setup isn’t that good. There’s too much ridging ahead of the low. There’s a N/S push but it’s timed with the low so we have a LP sitting at the lakes. Does nothing to help hold in any cold. . It’s just not cold enough. Absent a block w 50/50, which we don’t have yet, any wave will produce ridging ahead of it. There has to be a cold enough airmass in place to resist the southerly flow. We just never have that anymore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not necessarily. In 2016 the long wave pattern flipped very early January but we had to suffer a couple more rainstorms in the following weeks even in a great long wave pattern because it took a while to establish enough cold. So long as the progression toward a -nao remains we should eventually be ok. My frustration with that 6z run yesterday was that such a perfect h5 solution should have been able to overcome the reap antecedent thermals. But it would take something extreme like that until we get a truly colder thermal profile in place. The pattern has flipped. The North American thermals will be cooling. But it might take a while. That said I’ve been open about the elephant in the room. If we get the canonical pattern we expect in a Nino and it’s just too warm all winter at least we’ve answered the question and it’s settled. Are you still mostly unconcerned about the NPAC ridge and the associated SER reflection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Just so I’m keeping track correctly, SER is short for southeast ridge I’m assuming? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is it time to panic? We must start getting favorable tracks for low pressures and clippers or other mechanisms of bringing the cold down. Look for that instead of lows in The lakes and Ohio valley . Right now it’s just more of the same of delay and 10 days away until improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 I guess a lot of us are off this week but it really is too early to look at every run when we are probably not looking at any threats before the following weekend, nice to see some big hits south and east. WB 12Z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Just now, Rhino16 said: Just so I’m keeping track correctly, SER is short for southeast ridge I’m assuming? Yes it can also be called by many expletives if you’d like. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is it time to panic? Absolutely. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 14 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Last times DCA had 6”+ in Dec was 2009, 1983, 1973, 1969. That was definitely part of some colder Winters. https://ibb.co/McvQmYW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Absolutely. The door is open for u 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Imma create another thread for maybe some good juju. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 The 12th is practically half the winter gone and the pattern was supposed to changed alreadyHalf the winter gone? What the actual fack are you debs smoking on? Please move your emotions to the panic room thread. This shit, along with weather53s constant need to bash everyone’s analysis while not having any science backed predictions / analysis of their owns is making this thread miserable to read through. How many times do you guys need to be told the same thing before understanding how a pattern change works? It’s like beating a dead horse. THERE WAS NEVER a time when we thought we’d be knee deep in a snowy / cold pattern by the end of December. The weeklies from back in early November don’t count. We’ve been looking at the 1/2 and beyond timeframe for WEEKS now. Get it together guys. The incessant need to deb because you guys are snow jaded is annoying as shit. 2 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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