Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[Heisy]

12z euro has that Jan 4-5 event but there’s just no room for it to do anything. The timing with the shortwave behind it and the N/S are horrible. Then it looks likes it’s about to cook up another rain storm day 10+


This gives me ptsd from last few years. Blocking with SE ridge. Someone get me a dog






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[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z euro has that Jan 4-5 event but there’s just no room for it to do anything. The timing with the shortwave behind it and the N/S are horrible. Then it looks likes it’s about to cook up another rain storm day 10+


This gives me ptsd from last few years. Blocking with SE ridge. Someone get me a dog






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if you're going to post the GEPS when it shows a 48 hour long transient ridge in the east, might as well post it 48 hours later when the trough slips under the block

 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEPS I will take....

OMG  now it’s the 12th 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not really, there is a strong NAO correlation. There are great resources through the CDC daily climate composites that allow you to backcheck things going back to 1948: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

In looking at the whole timeset, I found a strong +time correlation to 10mb warmings and -NAO (500mb). It varied at different times in the year:

Stratosphere warming Oct 30-Nov 15 has highest -NAO correlation at +45 days (Dec 15-30)

Nov 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +40 days (Dec 25-Jan 10)

Dec 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +35 days (Jan 5-20)

Dec 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +30 days (Jan 15-30)

Jan 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +25 days (Jan 25-Feb 5)

Jan 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +20 days (Feb 5-20)

Feb 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +20 days (Feb 20- Mar 5)

Feb 15-Mar2 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +15 days (Mar 1-15)

March 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +15 days (March 15-30)

etc.. They vary in effects to the troposphere at different times of the cold season, but I found I strong correlation +time (since 1948). 

Here are the NAO effects on our temperature (+40-50% correlation):

https://ibb.co/jDLnWvp

You may argue that the current pattern is more dominant, which is something I might agree with, but there is a lot of proof of 10mb warmings having net effects. 

So All of your example result in cold and snowy for Mid Atlantic ?

I don’t think so

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

OMG  now it’s the 12th 

The  12th is  practically  half the winter gone and the  pattern was supposed to changed already

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

The  12th is  practically  half the winter gone and the  pattern was supposed to changed already

Get ready to get spanked 

[Heisy]

if you're going to post the GEPS when it shows a 48 hour long transient ridge in the east, might as well post it 48 hours later when the trough slips under the block

 

I realize that, it gets there eventually but we’re pushing 15 days then. It would def warm up ahead of that. Getting a little nervous that’s all. Negative Weenie vibes. I’m trying to hold it in lol


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[NorthArlington101]

looks ok... just doesn't do anything to the snow mean. I've seen worse odds for cold temps though.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect. 

It seems to be because the suppressed members are cold and the members that have a more amplified storm are warm/rain. The mean looks good but it’s misleading. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So All of your example result in cold and snowy for Mid Atlantic ?

I don’t think so

Maybe not, but in an El Nino our chances are better. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

looks ok... just doesn't do anything to the snow mean. I've seen worse odds for cold temps though.

Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm. 

Is it time to panic?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm. 

so you are saying time to plan a trip to the mountains?

[Heisy]

It seems to be because the suppressed members are cold and the members that have a more amplified storm are warm/rain. The mean looks good but it’s misleading. 

Yea and that’s a sign the setup isn’t that good. There’s too much ridging ahead of the low. There’s a N/S push but it’s timed with the low so we have a LP sitting at the lakes. Does nothing to help hold in any cold.





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[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Is it time to panic?

Not necessarily. In 2016 the long wave pattern flipped very early January but we had to suffer a couple more rainstorms in the following weeks even in a great long wave pattern because it took a while to establish enough cold.  So long as the progression toward a -nao remains we should eventually be ok. 
 

My frustration with that 6z run yesterday was that such a perfect h5 solution should have been able to overcome the reap antecedent thermals. But it would take something extreme like that until we get a truly colder thermal profile in place.  The pattern has flipped. The North American thermals will be cooling. But it might take a while. 
 

That said I’ve been open about the elephant in the room. If we get the canonical pattern we expect in a Nino and it’s just too warm all winter at least we’ve answered the question and it’s settled. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea and that’s a sign the setup isn’t that good. There’s too much ridging ahead of the low. There’s a N/S push but it’s timed with the low so we have a LP sitting at the lakes. Does nothing to help hold in any cold.





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It’s just not cold enough. Absent a block w 50/50, which we don’t have yet, any wave will produce ridging ahead of it.  There has to be a cold enough airmass in place to resist the southerly flow. We just never have that anymore. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Not necessarily. In 2016 the long wave pattern flipped very early January but we had to suffer a couple more rainstorms in the following weeks even in a great long wave pattern because it took a while to establish enough cold.  So long as the progression toward a -nao remains we should eventually be ok. 
 

My frustration with that 6z run yesterday was that such a perfect h5 solution should have been able to overcome the reap antecedent thermals. But it would take something extreme like that until we get a truly colder thermal profile in place.  The pattern has flipped. The North American thermals will be cooling. But it might take a while. 
 

That said I’ve been open about the elephant in the room. If we get the canonical pattern we expect in a Nino and it’s just too warm all winter at least we’ve answered the question and it’s settled. 

Are you still mostly unconcerned about the NPAC ridge and the associated SER reflection?

[Rhino16]

Just so I’m keeping track correctly, SER is short for southeast ridge I’m assuming?

[WEATHER53]

16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is it time to panic?

We must start getting favorable tracks for low pressures and clippers  or other mechanisms of bringing the cold down.  Look for that instead of lows in The lakes and Ohio valley .  Right now it’s just more of the same of delay and 10 days away until improvement 

[Weather Will]

I guess a lot of us are off this week but it really is too early to look at every run when we are probably not looking at any threats before the following weekend,  nice to see some big hits south and east. WB 12Z EPS.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Rhino16 said:

Just so I’m keeping track correctly, SER is short for southeast ridge I’m assuming?

Yes it can also be called by many expletives if you’d like.

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

26 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is it time to panic?

Absolutely.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Last times DCA had 6”+ in Dec was 2009, 1983, 1973, 1969. 

That was definitely part of some colder Winters.

https://ibb.co/McvQmYW 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Absolutely.

The door is open for u
 

[stormtracker]

Imma create another thread for maybe some good juju. 

[jayyy]

The  12th is  practically  half the winter gone and the  pattern was supposed to changed already

Half the winter gone? What the actual fack are you debs smoking on? Please move your emotions to the panic room thread. This shit, along with weather53s constant need to bash everyone’s analysis while not having any science backed predictions / analysis of their owns is making this thread miserable to read through.

How many times do you guys need to be told the same thing before understanding how a pattern change works? It’s like beating a dead horse. THERE WAS NEVER a time when we thought we’d be knee deep in a snowy / cold pattern by the end of December. The weeklies from back in early November don’t count. We’ve been looking at the 1/2 and beyond timeframe for WEEKS now. Get it together guys. The incessant need to deb because you guys are snow jaded is annoying as shit.