Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Too much emphasis on requiring a SSW to have a productive pattern. We've had these events a few times in recent years and the net result was nil for impacts in our regions.

As I recall not too long ago the last time, we got a SSW all the cold air dumped west of the Mississippi, and we went into the 60's and near 70 degrees. 

 

Also, the way things are set up right now a pattern change is not just going to happen overnight it will be a step back down into winter and it will likely take at least 10-15 days from this point to get rid of all the humidity, Pacific Air, Gulf of Mexico Air, and also Atlantic Air.  It's just not the Pacific Air in the Lower 48 this year. 

[Kevin Reilly]

59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. 

Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. 

Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens. 

Well said!  Think when the last time was a cold front blasted out of the Great Lakes and swung through well offshore with 35-45 winds behind it with temperatures falling from the 40's down into the teens and single digits. 

[Rhino16]

The NAM is very disappointing with the snowfall for the WV mountains. GFS went from something to nothing to something, and Now I feel it will go back to nothing but we’ll see.

[AtlanticWx]

all ensembles have trended colder in the long range. i suspect this is because of the trend away from the SSW and probably a weaker pass thru 4-5-6 MJO wise which ends up reducing the early signs of our SSW (like EC ridging). If these trends continue, we should be in the game for all of january 

[WinterWxLuvr]

16 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

The NAM is very disappointing with the snowfall for the WV mountains. GFS went from something to nothing to something, and Now I feel it will go back to nothing but we’ll see.

When you’re looking to the NAM for guidance beyond 24 hours you really do deserve what you get. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When you’re looking to the NAM for guidance beyond 24 hours you really do deserve what you get. 

Yea. Wait until it gets in range of the CRAS 

[Rhino16]

4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When you’re looking to the NAM for guidance beyond 24 hours you really do deserve what you get. 

Good point, I should have remembered from when I made that mistake earlier this year with something else.

[SnowGoose69]

24 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

all ensembles have trended colder in the long range. i suspect this is because of the trend away from the SSW and probably a weaker pass thru 4-5-6 MJO wise which ends up reducing the early signs of our SSW (like EC ridging). If these trends continue, we should be in the game for all of january 

 

Maybe but ensembles do not often really respond to MJO forecasts at D12-16 very much...its possible more than anything the GEFS for whatever reason was trying to revert to a Pac base state that in a Nino is just not likely to happen and as we move closer in the look changes.  I was warning people 3 days ago to be wary of any strong push through 4-5 in an El Nino that might be showing signs of coupling more based on SOI in recent days...just like forecasts of a strong 8-1-2 wave last winter were not realistic

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m upset the transient pac ridge leads to about 12 hours of muted ridging in the east. It’s awful. 

Please do not provoke the SER.  It achieved consciousness last year and it is aware of all mockery.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

As I recall not too long ago the last time, we got a SSW all the cold air dumped west of the Mississippi, and we went into the 60's and near 70 degrees. 

The last one I recall was in Jan/Feb 2021 which I believe led directly to the great arctic outbreak in the Midwest in February (see @Jebman's epic post).  Of course that did nothign for the east coast.

SSWEs are enormously complex like most weather phenomena but I have a simple mental  model which I think is useful.  A SSWE is either going to couple with the troposphere or not.  If it doesn't couple, then of course it is useless to us.  If it does couple, SOME area of the NH is in for an arctic outbreak, but where exactly that occurs is highly variable as many other have pointed out.

I haven't done any research but based on comments I have seen from the twitterati as well as my own common sense I strongly suspect that the location of any outbreak is not just uniformly random but is influenced by the already existing hemispheric pattern.  If so then it makes perfect sense that the SSWE in say 2021 did nothing for us because as we all know our base state has been heavily tilted to SER pattern, essentially acting as a shield discouraging arctic discharge in our neck of the woods.

Given, the different base state this year I think it is entirely reasonable to hope for a higher probability of impact if the SSWE were to occur (and assuming that it couples).  So I for one am still hoping for one.     

[TSSN+]

12z gfs sucks wall to wall but ens say no to it 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We had a 30-day Stratosphere warming last Winter Feb 14-March 15. 

https://ibb.co/601Xr3H

It did downwell to the troposphere to effect the NAO

https://ibb.co/GT59g8v

The problem was that we had a bad Pacific (too) and a SE ridge popped

https://ibb.co/82qyFTz

Before that we had a Stratosphere warming in January 2021

https://ibb.co/JkdhgnK

This is how that one effected temps +time

https://ibb.co/d0zFmC1

We also had one in January 2019

https://ibb.co/Z6CKVjd

Again, a SE ridge pops (+normal-time-to-impact)

https://ibb.co/Y8yhTPR

Feb 13-March 15 2018

https://ibb.co/BcdvyNd

One of our colder ones recently

https://ibb.co/pQTCrh9

Really impacted the NAO +time

https://ibb.co/TmzxvwT

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea SSW seems a bust.

SSW unproven and overrated and essentially unknown. So now we are back to 1/7 or 1/8 and no 12:28&29  and no 1/2&3 . But the 1/7& 8 is DEFINTE this time?

Several seasoned posters and some unknowns have been very adamant and quite chastising of us who are referencing the delay of a favorable pattern. 1/7 and 8 is your last shot for anyone to listen anymore . Any chirping about 1/15-1/20 that would begin just shows futility and denial 

 

 

 

[Ji]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

SSW unproven and overrated and essentially unknown. So now we are back to 1/7 or 1/8 and no 12:28&29  and no 1/2&3 . But the 1/7& 8 is DEFINTE this time?

Several seasoned posters and some unknowns have been very adamant and quite chastising of us who are referencing the delay of a favorable pattern. 1/7 and 8 is your last shot for anyone to listen anymore . Any chirping about 1/15-1/20 that would begin just shows futility and denial 

 

 

 

there was never a 12/28 and 29 lol. That was the day when the pattern started changing. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

there was never a 12/28 and 29 lol. That was the day when the pattern started changing. 

Yeah, that’s when the colder air was supposed to come. That was always the first step. The real problem is whether it’s cold enough. It may need to come in waves to get it there

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

there was never a 12/28 and 29 lol. That was the day when the pattern started changing. 

I got rebuked several times in this thread for discrediting a 12/28 12/29 pattern change Going from 55-60 for highs to 45-50 for highs is no change nor beginning of one to winter weather. 

Lol at your misinformed self 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

SSW unproven and overrated and essentially unknown. So now we are back to 1/7 or 1/8 and no 12:28&29  and no 1/2&3 . But the 1/7& 8 is DEFINTE this time?

Several seasoned posters and some unknowns have been very adamant and quite chastising of us who are referencing the delay of a favorable pattern. 1/7 and 8 is your last shot for anyone to listen anymore . Any chirping about 1/15-1/20 that would begin just shows futility and denial 

 

 

 

Are you saying that if the snow threats between 1/4 and 1/8 fail, for whatever reason, it means the pattern didn’t change?  

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I got rebuked several times in this thread for discrediting a 12/28 12/29 pattern change Going from 55-60 for highs to 45-50 for highs is no change nor beginning of one to winter weather. 

Lol at your misinformed self 

howie===look at Dec 30

 

vs Dec 25

 

 

 

does the pattern look the same to you?

[osfan24]

The pattern is changing. How much remains to be seen, and whether we will cash in or not. But get out of here with that 12/28 talk. No one that seriously tracks this stuff thought that was anything to be tracking. We cash in during the middle, and probably mostly, toward the end of pattern changes. 1/6 and on is really the timeframe I am concerned with. Anything before then was a big surprise/added bonus and I wouldn't have even taken seriously until the short-to-medium range.

[WxUSAF]

To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

42 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

SSW unproven and overrated and essentially unknown.

Not really, there is a strong NAO correlation. There are great resources through the CDC daily climate composites that allow you to backcheck things going back to 1948: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

In looking at the whole timeset, I found a strong +time correlation to 10mb warmings and -NAO (500mb). It varied at different times in the year:

Stratosphere warming Oct 30-Nov 15 has highest -NAO correlation at +45 days (Dec 15-30)

Nov 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +40 days (Dec 25-Jan 10)

Dec 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +35 days (Jan 5-20)

Dec 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +30 days (Jan 15-30)

Jan 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +25 days (Jan 25-Feb 5)

Jan 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +20 days (Feb 5-20)

Feb 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +20 days (Feb 20- Mar 5)

Feb 15-Mar2 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +15 days (Mar 1-15)

March 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +15 days (March 15-30)

etc.. They vary in effects to the troposphere at different times of the cold season, but I found I strong correlation +time (since 1948). 

Here are the NAO effects on our temperature (+40-50% correlation):

https://ibb.co/jDLnWvp

You may argue that the current pattern is more dominant, which is something I might agree with, but there is a lot of proof of 10mb warmings having net effects. 

[Chris78]

Just looking at TT maps for GEFS and there seems to be plenty of Moisture south of us.

1/2, 1/4-5  1/7-8 seems like those are our 3 chances coming up with colder air available as time goes on.

Fingers crossed we can cash in on one if those..

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect. 

If the GEFS has a discrete threat it is being very discreet about it....

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEPS I will take....

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

If the GEFS has a discrete threat it is being very discreet about it....

I'm just going off of TT that doesn't have snow maps for Esembles but there definitely seems to be opportunities just looking at moisture and temp anomalies 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

If the GEFS has a discrete threat it is being very discreet about it....

I see what you did there. I like it.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect. 

Fair amount of spread for each of those windows, including suppressed to not much of anything. Signal should get stronger in the next couple days if one of these is gonna materialize.

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

SSW unproven and overrated and essentially unknown. So now we are back to 1/7 or 1/8 and no 12:28&29  and no 1/2&3 . But the 1/7& 8 is DEFINTE this time?

Several seasoned posters and some unknowns have been very adamant and quite chastising of us who are referencing the delay of a favorable pattern. 1/7 and 8 is your last shot for anyone to listen anymore . Any chirping about 1/15-1/20 that would begin just shows futility and denial 

 

Hopefully you don’t take this too hostile. But may I suggest you focus on making your own predictions instead of attacking others predictions. Almost every time I see you post in the long range thread it’s to basically say someone else was wrong and anyone who believes them is foolish.  And most of the time you mischaracterize what they actually predicted setting up a straw man back and forth debate.  But I rarely see you come in and make your own long range predictions.  Just make your own tangible predictions. If they’re better we will all see and you won’t have to point out everyone else’s failures. 

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hopefully you don’t take this too hostile. But may I suggest you focus on making your own predictions instead of attacking others predictions. Almost every time I see you post in the long range thread it’s to basically say someone else was wrong and anyone who believes them is foolish.  And most of the time you mischaracterize what they actually predicted setting up a straw man back and forth debate.  But I rarely see you come in and make your own long range predictions.  Just make your own tangible predictions. If they’re better we will all see and you won’t have to point out everyone else’s failures. 

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks like the GEFS have a Aleutian/N. Pacific high Jan 5-12. I've found that early in its long term phase (the N. Pacific high), it doesn't effect the SE Ridge as much as later in its phase, and we have seen lately, several years in that it is effecting the SE ridge everytime it basically can. I'm going to say that we don't see snowfall until that variable changes, which could be sometime after Jan 11-12. One of the net effects that we have seen is that there is a lot of surface layer warmth. It may not cause a net SE ridge, but it will negate other patterns.