Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[Jebman]

9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I think we've been kind of blocking it out because we've been wallowing in the misery of an endless SE ridge, but flyover country has had several notable cold outbreaks over the last few years.  So it can still get cold, there at least.

Here's the one that almost brought modern civilization to its knees in Texas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave

The Monday night before the storm it was 65 and drizzle. Tuesday night it was 52 and drizzle. Wednesday night it was 38 and drizzle. Thursday it hit 32 and started icing up everything. Friday freezing drizzle blew around at 30 degrees then Saturday morning it was 25 and falling and everything was ice covered.

It got so fookin COLD in Buda! There was drizzle for days and days and it froze on ALL surfaces! On Saturday even the DIRT was solid ice! Then on Sunday it fell into the mid 20s with 25 mph north winds and drizzle, that changed to sleet at 7pm then to snow by 11pm that became heavy! This was a full-on BECS by south Texas standards! Flakes were easily an inch in diameter! I stared in astonishment, to see this happening in Buda! It piled up and drifted as north winds gusted to 35 mph at times! The temperatures fell into the teens and the upper single digits! We got 7 inches of snow and many waterlines froze solid. Our well took damage. I had to carry water like a 19th century Sooner, for days! I was not happy. I also fell right on my 8ss! The neighbors howled with mirth! It turned out we got lucky with the pipes, but I got the bajorkas worked out of me haulin' water! I got sick of that real quick! I never did like the Sooners and I didnt like being one either! It was so damned COLD! I am not used to this anymore. I work outside routinely in humid 100 plus weather many months out of the year.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

The chances should to be plentiful over the next several weeks. Thank you niño! Said this the other day, but IMO, the most likely way to maximize snowfall potential from these 3 setups is if storm #1 (4-5th) ends up being the “setup storm” for the trailing 1 or 2 shortwaves. Historically it would be the least impactful, coming at the beginning of train tracks pattern with a marginal (but workable) airmass, but could also prove to be the most important wave, as it would lay the groundwork for a better h5 look once the 7th rolls around ie: ushering in legitimate cold air, laying down some snowpack to our north, and by potentially slowing down the flow upstream a bit, allowing storm #2 to potentially slow down and go boom.

All speculation of course and I’m just thinking out loud here, but if we could manage to get even a little bit of snow from wave 1 and then cash in on at least one of the following two, that’d be a great way to kick off the new year. It’d certainly help get weenies off the proverbial ledge.

Snow weenies will be flying all over the place. This entire sub is going to be a total very ecstatic pandemonium! I am going to be glad to see it!

[WxUSAF]

EPS still with a strong signal on the 7th. A little offshore vs our preference, but a good look for a D11-12 event.

 

[frd]

 

Rather impressive heat fluxes during the next 10 days. 
 

 

 

[CAPE]

The one key ingredient for this upcoming period that has been lacking should be more readily available, thanks in part to the developing EPO ridge allowing flow southward from the Polar regions and mixing out the Pacific airmass.

[Eskimo Joe]

RE: @CAPE's last post. If it takes only a week to get the Pacific puke out of Canada that's excellent. It's amazing how the Great Lakes are virtually ice free as we ring on 2024. That's insane.

[CAPE]

A bit of a longshot and probably not a big deal either way, but the last few runs of the GEFS suggest the wave that develops and slides off the coast to our south around the 2nd might be close enough for a bit of frozen, with the advertised airmass a bit colder than depicted on earlier runs. A half dozen or so members have had something. I counted 8 on the 6z GEFS. Just something to keep an eye on while we await the better chances.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit of a longshot and probably not a big deal either way, but the last few runs of the GEFS suggest the wave that develops and slides off the coast to our south around the 2nd might be close enough for a bit of frozen, with the advertised airmass a bit colder than depicted on earlier runs. A half dozen or so members have had something. I counted 8 on the 6z GEFS. Just something to keep an eye on while we await the better chances.

Even a slushy inch of snow on the grass in the metros would cool this place down. Waiting until the end of January for snow is not a sustainable solution in these parts.

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Even a slushy inch of snow on the grass in the metros would cool this place down. Waiting until the end of January for snow is not a sustainable solution in these parts.

are we pushing it to the end of January now?  

[Prestige Worldwide]

Only 10/51 now

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739994462653444415?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

are we pushing it to the end of January now?  

I've come to the conclusion that we need to lower expectations and be happy with anything we get this year. We need to have the "well we got more snow than last year" mentality.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Only 10/51 now

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739994462653444415?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

Yea SSW seems a bust.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago.  At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years.  Is that off the table?  Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at?  Muchas gracias. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea SSW seems a bust.

One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). 

Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago.  At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years.  Is that off the table?  Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at?  Muchas gracias. 

Bob just did. Summed it up pretty well. 

[CAPE]

GEPS hinting at a legit NA block building westward to Baffin Island. Cold airmass underneath verbatim. 6z GEFS has the same idea.

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Bob just did. Summed it up pretty well. 

He’s ^ not a jumper

[aldie 22]

Seems pretty clear to me that everyone has a different definition of what a pattern change is. Some think it means that it happens on an exact day and snow starts falling immediately. Some think it means that it's a gradual shift and adjustment that ultimately results in a different weather pattern with more cold and snow chances. To me the crux of our angst is that a lot of people thought that any shift in the pattern around New Years meant snow vs the slow change towards a better pattern. First world problems with the need for immediate gratification.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Only 10/51 now

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739994462653444415?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

Too much emphasis on requiring a SSW to have a productive pattern. We've had these events a few times in recent years and the net result was nil for impacts in our regions.

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I've come to the conclusion that we need to lower expectations and be happy with anything we get this year. We need to have the "well we got more snow than last year" mentality.

Low expectations should be the mindset going into every winter tbh. Ppl set themselves up for a letdown assuming things like Nino=snowstorms or Nina=sustained cold etc. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). 

Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range 

Didn't see this before posting my ssw comment. Well said....exactly.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Seems pretty clear to me that everyone has a different definition of what a pattern change is. Some think it means that it happens on an exact day and snow starts falling immediately. Some think it means that it's a gradual shift and adjustment that ultimately results in a different weather pattern with more cold and snow chances. To me the crux of our angst is that a lot of people thought that any shift in the pattern around New Years meant snow vs the slow change towards a better pattern. First world problems with the need for immediate gratification.

The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. 

Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. 

Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens. 

[NorthArlington101]

9 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I guess I wouldn’t bet my life this wouldn’t happen, but it’s concerning how bad the gfs is 4 days out.

GFS has been terrible with this one.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS has been terrible

 

FYP

[poolz1]

A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho.  The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results.  Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season.  Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

FYP

if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. It's ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS has been terrible with this one.

 

To be fair to the poor, underappreciated, and often bashed GFS... lol... Upper level lows are dynamic balls of energy. The wobble and evolve in unpredictable ways. Precipitation is dynamically driven in a tight area unlike upglide/overrunning. Models never get that stuff right. Especially in a mixed event scenario. Even 24 hours out (or real time) there is a level of unpredictably that makes it fun to experience (during legit snow events). 

[psuhoffman]

I’m upset the transient pac ridge leads to about 12 hours of muted ridging in the east. It’s awful. 

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho.  The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results.  Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season.  Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c. 

SSWs happen in about 60% of seasons in the northern hemisphere. How and if they influence the troposphere is much more variable. The current background forcing: Nino, -PDO, east QBO, and solar forcing is about primo for a SSW this winter. But those factors also already support northern blocking! And that northern blocking forces the SSW, which reinforces that block! So there’s some chicken and the egg arguments here. 

[nj2va]

34 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. Its ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow.

This is just one small example but I’ve been paying close attention to snow in northern NH since we’re spending New Years up there.  Euro keeps bouncing around nearly as much as GFS with handling features inside 100 hours up there.