Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[EastCoast NPZ]

42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Really? Show me the data for 73, 98 and 16

98??  What happened in 98?

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

98??  What happened in 98?

didnt 98 suck a giant stink hole?  maybe he means 1898...that was a solid year i would think

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS is cooking up something in the Jan. 6 timeframe. That's the one I'm after. If that one isn't at least interesting to track... it'll be sad.

Agreed. I always thought everything before this date was too fast/early in the pattern change. But if nothing comes of the January 5-12 timeframe.......

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, BristowWx said:

didnt 98 suck a giant stink hole?  maybe he means 1898...that was a solid year i would think

It was terrible for nearly everyone.  We got saved with a 12" wet snow to rain storm that would no-doubt be a complete rainstorm today.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

It is an operational run in fantasy land beyond Day 10, but there is no cold air....compared to yesterday's 12Z run.  Zonal flow in Canada, no cold air moving south.  Big disappointment if correct.

 

 

 

This is why models should not go out more than 5 days for the public to see.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, TSG said:

i'm going to disagree pretty strongly on this point. The boundary layer up to ~900mb is torched from 2.5 days of Southwest/South flow starting on the 31st. Yeah these kind of storms can bomb out and make up for less than ideal temps, but there's no real cold for the storm to pull down from the N/NW. The panel below says it all, >0C 850s all the way to Maine... 45-50F surface coming in at 20kts off the Atlantic over NJ/DE. That's just not a recipe for snow in the Mid-Altantic in my experience, bombing cyclone or not.

You are looking macro. Pull back and look at the hemisphere long wave pattern. 
 

Look where that NS energy originates a few days before. It comes down from near the Yukon and dives through Manitoba. This isn’t some cut off southern treat subtropical system. It’s a NS wave diving down from northwest Canada. And look at the flow.  

As it dives into the upper Midwest the flow into our source regions is still directly from the north.

Now as the wave digs to our west and turns east yes we have a southwest flow.  But one that’s true of any wave approaching from the west.  Anytime any wave is west of us we will have a southerly flow ahead of it.  So what are you saying we can only snow from some negative tilt capture scenario where a wave bongs south of us and pulls due north?  Good luck with that.  Second look at the larger flow.  Look where the air to our southwest originates.  The larger flow to our area is still straight from the arctic!  

after this the upper low is amplifying and tracks to our south. Even if we concede the initial surface track is such that it would start as rain in DC there is absolutely no excuse why it’s not snow once the surface low is 988 off the coast with an amplified NS upper low whose SW originated in northern Canada and a deform band puking heavy precip on us. 
 

Finally, yes there are minor imperfections here you can point to and try to say “but if this or that variable had been more perfect” but I did a case study it every 4” snowstorm at BWI going back to 1950 years ago. And almost all of them were flawed in some way. The ones that weren’t were the HECS storms. Yes if we want 20” we need it to be textbook. 50/50, cold high, block, perfect track in every way. But that’s not true of almost all the 4-8” type storms we’ve had over the last 75 years!  The reason they weren’t a HECS was whatever flaw it had. But one or two minor flaws wasn’t a reason we can’t get snow at all!  There are a ton of variances. Micro. Macro. We could go over like 10+ important variables that influence a snowstorm to some degree. If we need every single one to line up perfect we’re screwed!  I’m not saying we can’t snow if we get like every possible thing right. Of course we will still get a hecs if we get a 3 std dv block with a 50/50 and a 1045 arctic high over Montreal and a bonbinh 980 STJ system tracking up the east coast. I know that will still work. But that setup will happen once a decade. Are we F’d the rest of the time?  

[NorthArlington101]

• weekend rule ✅
• looks decently cold ✅
• storm starts off looking sort of suppressed ✅

we're ticking off the boxes. This is it

[Interstate]

50 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

73 and 98 are absent from the "good years" dataset for a reason, but you already knew that.  16 kinda makes the point does it not - pattern flipped cold in early Jan, big storm and pattern breaks down.  

We are delusional if we think 02-3 or 09-10 are still on the table.

Well 09-10 was a once in a lifetime period... but snowmageddon was in Feb... so nothing if off the table.

[Interstate]

24 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It would appear outside of a few hits here in there 2016 and 2015 there have been fewer and fewer legit snow events DC to Baltimore, to Philadelphia, to New York.

 

I trace this back to the winter of 2009-2010 that year when it comes to snow really stand out, but those storms that dumped on us in December 19th, 2009, and February 17th, 2010, were kind of unusual in the way they evolved and the extreme blocking that took place during those storms.

 

I mean I had 40-50 mph winds out of the west on February 17th, 2010, with heavy snow coming down 2-3" an hour I do not recall any time in my lifetime where that happened. 

 

I am searching and searching for the reasons why we are in this snow drought, but it is not just DC, to Baltimore, to Philadelphia this is happening it's happening in a lot of places over the past 2-4 years. Obviously too small of a sample size to make too much sense yet.

 

Are we in the warm El Nino Phase?

It is called the law of averages... With every good snow period... there has to be some bad ones.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

a lot of you have said it but if we cannot snow with that setup in January then I went too high on my snow fall contest prediction.  being inside the 540 used to be good.  

Shir I've seen 546 work 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a middle ground.  After calculating the avg of the analogs I came to with I did reduce the snowfall to factor in warming. The number was still so high because the best matches to this winter were some of our snowiest winters ever. I acknowledged the risk and my fears regarding warning. We will see when it’s over if I miscalculated. Maybe the gfs is too warm. Maybe this storm doesn’t even happen. Maybe this is the one storm that falls into my “reduced” calculation and we still get 2 big snows in Feb and we end up with 35” instead of 45” and I was correct. We don’t know yet. 
 

But I love snow so the thought of losing and storms bothers me. Sorry. I totally get that some would rather try to ignore something that’s depressing and they can’t control. That’s probably healthier. 

I get what you’re saying with how you did the forecast. Sorry… I’ve just been losing patience with “Deniers” lately (not you).

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

It is an operational run in fantasy land beyond Day 10, but there is no cold air....compared to yesterday's 12Z run.  Zonal flow in Canada, no cold air moving south.  Big disappointment if correct.

 

 

 

Bottom map blues look like the Nittany Lion paw. I'm convinced @psuhoffmancontrols the weather just to see us snow-starved weenies suffer more and more  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

surface cold air isn’t established before that system moves in… simple as that, really

Everything is a see saw equation. It used to be that kind of H5 progression would overcome a marginal air mass in front. And it’s not day 1 of the pattern. We’ve had 5-7 days of a better flow into our source regions. How long do we need to wait. 10 days. 14. Do we need a good pattern to lock in for 20 days before we can snow?  What if the whole pattern only lasts 10 days?  By the time we get cold it’s too late!  That’s what keeps happening the last few years. 
 

Im truly done. Some of y’all just don’t want to see it.  Don’t want to admit it. It’s clear as day to me. Setups that used to tilt toward snow now tilt rain. It’s getting harder to snow. We’re losing storms on the margins. Deny it if you want. I’ve shown the evidence. The data backs it up. Doesn’t mean we won’t snow. Just we need more variables to be perfect now. Mainly we need a true cold airmass. Marginal air masses where in the past we relied on other factors to overcome the boundary temps are all tilting the wrong way lately EVEN WHEN WE GET EVERYTHING ELSE to go right!  Our snowfall is declining. If some don’t want to accept that so be it. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

58 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

At least the SPIRE gets it done on Jan. 2.

I'm feeling in'SPIRE'd now, thanks.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm feeling in'SPIRE'd now, thanks.

Is that one of those IA models? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Is that one of those IA models? 

Not sure but it can probably be thrown in the bonfire with the ngp, cras, and icon. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Is that one of those IA models? 

partially?

Quote

Spire builds and operates the largest multipurpose constellation of satellites that use radio occultation technology to collect over 20,000 profiles a day to observe, monitor and collect weather and Earth data.

... and further enriched by our AI-based algorithm

I've been looking to see if you can run Google's GraphCast model with snow accums but I can't find it. Have found a site that shows rough MSLP + precip

[konksw]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything is a see saw equation. It used to be that kind of H5 progression would overcome a marginal air mass in front. And it’s not day 1 of the pattern. We’ve had 5-7 days of a better flow into our source regions. How long do we need to wait. 10 days. 14. Do we need a good pattern to lock in for 20 days before we can snow?  What if the whole pattern only lasts 10 days?  By the time we get cold it’s too late!  That’s what keeps happening the last few years. 
 

Im truly done. Some of y’all just don’t want to see it.  Don’t want to admit it. It’s clear as day to me. Setups that used to tilt toward snow now tilt rain. It’s getting harder to snow. We’re losing storms on the margins. Deny it if you want. I’ve shown the evidence. The data backs it up. Doesn’t mean we won’t snow. Just we need more variables to be perfect now. Mainly we need a true cold airmass. Marginal air masses where in the past we relied on other factors to overcome the boundary temps are all tilting the wrong way lately EVEN WHEN WE GET EVERYTHING ELSE to go right!  Our snowfall is declining. If some don’t want to accept that so be it. 

Really appreciate the ongoing analysis about the challenges we’re facing. Not sure how one has an in depth discussion about this without being able to talk about the elephant in the room.  Hope we get something soon. I’d take some sleet at this point  honestly. 

[Ji]

JB likes it so it must be crap

[NorthArlington101]

12z EURO says seasonably cold and dry on Jan. 2 - what storm?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

partially?

I've been looking to see if you can run Google's GraphCast model with snow accums but I can't find it. Have found a site that shows rough MSLP + precip

Wth is 'radio occultation' that they use to run the spire? So they summon evil demons with their ham radio for each run?

[GEOS5ftw]

Spire is running a similar model to the GFS ( I think) but with additional soundings from their GNSS-RO satellites. I haven’t seen accuracy scores so it will be interesting to see how it performs this winter.

The AI models (pangu, fourcastnet, etc) are all trained on reanalysis. From my perspective of both seeing a small bit of their output and published verification scores, they can do a bit better than deterministic and similar to ensembles in the 5-10 day range. The real advantage is how fast they run. But they only produce a limited number of output fields and precipitation is a known deficiency.


.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Jan 6-7 looks warm on the ensembles

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Jan 6-7 looks warm on the ensembles

SER?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

SER?

Aleutian ridge is weak but it's there

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Jan 6-7 looks warm on the ensembles

Bruh....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bruh....

We need below average

https://ibb.co/k1hPWtw

[Ralph Wiggum]

^^those are 850 anomalies. Here are the 2m:

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

540 line in Canada?

https://ibb.co/k1hPWtw

Those are heights I'm pretty sure....not critical thicknesses. Irregardless those are not "warm" looks.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything is a see saw equation. It used to be that kind of H5 progression would overcome a marginal air mass in front. And it’s not day 1 of the pattern. We’ve had 5-7 days of a better flow into our source regions. How long do we need to wait. 10 days. 14. Do we need a good pattern to lock in for 20 days before we can snow?  What if the whole pattern only lasts 10 days?  By the time we get cold it’s too late!  That’s what keeps happening the last few years. 
 

Im truly done. Some of y’all just don’t want to see it.  Don’t want to admit it. It’s clear as day to me. Setups that used to tilt toward snow now tilt rain. It’s getting harder to snow. We’re losing storms on the margins. Deny it if you want. I’ve shown the evidence. The data backs it up. Doesn’t mean we won’t snow. Just we need more variables to be perfect now. Mainly we need a true cold airmass. Marginal air masses where in the past we relied on other factors to overcome the boundary temps are all tilting the wrong way lately EVEN WHEN WE GET EVERYTHING ELSE to go right!  Our snowfall is declining. If some don’t want to accept that so be it. 

I think most here do see it. You kinda beat this dead horse constantly though. Snow climo sucks worse than it used to, and it has never been great in the lowlands at our latitude. So we accept it and adjust expectations. Other options include relocating.