Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[NorthArlington101]

Oh God. No GFS. Don’t do what i think it’s trying to do on the 1st

[87storms]

Oh God. No GFS. Don’t do what i think it’s trying to do on the 1st

Taps into the gom, it looks like. Might be good for the higher elevations, at least.

[NorthArlington101]

Should’ve sent the PAWS version instead

[stormtracker]

Whew. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Whew. 

That was so close at h5, so close. GFS roulette Randy....you live to see another run.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Temps are really pretty warm though. That's a 998mb low in SE Canada. 

[WEATHER53]

12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m curious why you don’t recognize your denial 

Let’s get some cold and snow in here. So far the projection from Nov and early Dec of change on 12/15, then Christmas, then most assuredly 12/28 or 29 did not occur. We’ve got until 1/10 or we are sunk. I take No pleasure in sunk  Low pressures and clippers gotta synchronized up . Noll going nuts about the umpteenth SSW which is perpetually just about to happen when things are not going well. MJO-Well Who Knows. 

[Terpeast]

44 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Whew. 

That was close. 

[WEATHER53]

24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I hope you’re trapped in Mexico 

Is he Still a dazzling urbanite??

[Rhino16]

Hey, it’s a good day. First the 12z candy, now the 18z has the upslope back before the new year, I’ll take it as long as I see some decent stuff.

[frd]

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS time around Jan. 5th still looks good.

[Ji]

WB 18Z GEFS time around Jan. 5th still looks good.

Didn’t you post something yesterday saying gefs shows no snow east of mountains through day 10

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Didn’t you post something yesterday saying gefs shows no snow east of mountains through day 10

December 24 plus 10 days is Jan. 3rd.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS time around Jan. 5th still looks good.

P15 and most of this sub and my home sub party like it's 1999....or 1996

[Weather Will]

Long range models did a good job this year.  We can quibble about the exact transition date, but a colder and stormier pattern appears to be on its way.  Will we get a decent snowstorm or two?  Hope so, there are definitely some  players on the table.

And the entire month at least appears to have potential.  WB XMAS EURO weeklies;

February is also looking good through Day 8.

[WinterFire]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s get some cold and snow in here. So far the projection from Nov and early Dec of change on 12/15, then Christmas, then most assuredly 12/28 or 29 did not occur. We’ve got until 1/10 or we are sunk. I take No pleasure in sunk  Low pressures and clippers gotta synchronized up . Noll going nuts about the umpteenth SSW which is perpetually just about to happen when things are not going well. MJO-Well Who Knows. 

Arguing with a toddler is pointless; best case scenario is you win an argument with a toddler. So I say this not to argue with this specific individual but for the rest of the folks reading the thread: this is emphatically not what is happening.
 

Reference the images a few days ago in my exchange with WW—the models advertised a pattern change for late December and a pattern change is indeed coming. Regardless of someone’s feelings, facts are facts and all of this data is freely available on sites like TT and pivotal; anyone can feel free to scroll back 10-15 days and see how the GEFS or EPS envisioned the atmosphere for this time period. The long-range models are pretty good at figuring out long wave patterns two weeks out, actually! 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GEFS pattern & temps for day 9 through 16 continue to look workable.

This should provide some chances.

[nj2va]

I may have been living under a rock but I just realized Weather Bell has soundings, including Euro out to 90 hours.

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

crank this one way the hell up!

 

[Jebman]

Merry Christmas to everyone!

Have an exciting New Year 2024!

[Eskimo Joe]

Gods I hope this happens and all the goods come to our side of the globe. Let Ivan bake.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s get some cold and snow in here. So far the projection from Nov and early Dec of change on 12/15, then Christmas, then most assuredly 12/28 or 29 did not occur. We’ve got until 1/10 or we are sunk. I take No pleasure in sunk  Low pressures and clippers gotta synchronized up . Noll going nuts about the umpteenth SSW which is perpetually just about to happen when things are not going well. MJO-Well Who Knows. 

This was day 12-19 on guidance 10 days ago  

This is what it looks like now!

Amazing job by guidance!  You picked a weird time to start in with this anti long range crusade of yours when the long range guidance has been absolutely killing it lately.  

 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This was day 12-19 on guidance 10 days ago  

This is what it looks like now!

Amazing job by guidance!  You picked a weird time to start in with this anti long range crusade of yours when the long range guidance has been absolutely killing it lately.  

 

even the seasonal modeling has been crazy....i posted something in early November about how the Season model had a ton of precip starting around Nov 20 through Dec and we have been assaulted by precip. I think we had this disussion before but perhaps due to more southern stream than northern stream...models do better in Nino but i think that is for specific storms...and not long range patterns

[jayyy]

This was day 12-19 on guidance 10 days ago  

This is what it looks like now!

Amazing job by guidance!  You picked a weird time to start in with this anti long range crusade of yours when the long range guidance has been absolutely killing it lately.  
 

What’d you say to me the other day about debating the illogical with logic? Same person if I recall correctly it’s becoming quite clear that the member in question doesn’t understand how pattern changes work and that it takes some time for things to unfold downstream when the PAC reshuffles. The pattern beginning to change on the 29th doesn’t mean we will have a snow setup on the 30th. It typically means that we should begin to see snow chances pop up on guidance 7-10 days after, and that still hinges on other things lining up correctly. Some folks need a quick refresher it seems. I know it’s been snowless around here the past 2 years but damn.

On a real note, thanks for the quick fact check. Guidance has, so far, done a solid job with the longwave pattern 10-15 days out. No two ways about it. And you were the first person to say models were rushing a snowstorm for the 29th timeframe. The pattern change was still coming as advertised, but that there was very little shot things would come together within 4 days to see a snowstorm materialize. Makes sense given the number of moving pieces impacting the impending changes at H5.

January 4-5th is our first shot at *SOME* snow, but not as good as our chances for the 8th-9th. That could be the first true areawide SECS to track this winter

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, jayyy said:

What’d you say to me the other day about debating the illogical with logic? Same person if I recall correctly it’s becoming quite clear that the member in question doesn’t understand how pattern changes work and that it takes some time for things to unfold downstream when the PAC reshuffles. The pattern beginning to change on the 29th doesn’t mean we will have a snow setup on the 30th. It typically means that we should begin to see snow chances pop up on guidance 7-10 days after, and that still hinges on other things lining up correctly. Some folks need a quick refresher it seems. I know it’s been snowless around here the past 2 years but damn.

On a real note, thanks for the quick fact check. Guidance has, so far, done a solid job with the longwave pattern 10-15 days out. No two ways about it. And you were the first person to say models were rushing a snowstorm for the 29th timeframe. The pattern change was still coming as advertised, but that there was very little shot things would come together within 4 days to see a snowstorm materialize. Makes sense given the number of moving pieces impacting the impending changes at H5.

January 4-5th is our first shot at *SOME* snow, but not as good as our chances for the 8th-9th. That could be the first true areawide SECS to track this winter

True but I thought you were going at it with Stormy. 

[jayyy]

WB 18Z GEFS time around Jan. 5th still looks good.

With the impending pattern change still on track, I’d be OK with settling for a snow thump to rain/dry slot setup around the 4th if it meant setting the stage for a legit storm around the 8-9th. Drag the boundary south, inject in some fresh cold air, and we see a low track up from the Gulf coast. Hints of high pressure being present in eastern Canada as well. Let’s get it done!

A few members of the 18z GEFS actually gave us significant snow from the initial wave, but there’s really not much support for that outcome *at this time*

[jayyy]

True but I thought you were going at it with Stormy. 

53 said I had errant beliefs but I can totally understand the mixup

[BristowWx]

I can’t believe that 192 panel on GFS is showing rain with those rates inside the 534 line.  That should show us getting clocked even though it’s fantasy range.  

[Kmlwx]

18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I can’t believe that 192 panel on GFS is showing rain with those rates inside the 534 line.  That should show us getting clocked even though it’s fantasy range.  

Even at fantasy range - a low in that position is not going to be good for most of us