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Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr
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58 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Plus no one thinks it will never snow again.  

You’re entitled to your take. I’ve stayed out of it in that thread. But in a -pdo cycle both Nina’s and neutral winters are usually putrid for our area. El Niños are by FAR our best chance as a snowy winter.  5 of the past 6 above avg snow season in DC we’re a Nino.  And the only exception was a neutral during an extremely +PDO. Something we likely won’t see anytime soon!  So excuse us if we’re a bit hesitant to just toss what history and data says us by far our best chance at actually getting a snowy season following our least snowy 7 years ever!  So tell me…with a Nina coming during a continued -pdo cycle…when is this “someday it will snow again” coming?  

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21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Kinda obsessive there sport

You  self appointed “correcting” of Everyone is Old now. 

If you don’t like to be corrected don’t post incorrect information. If you want to defend your position you are free to do so. Making personal attacks on me does not, however, validate anything you said or refute anything I said.  
 

Merry Christmas. 

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

28th forward does not start any change.  That was a Solid target date  just 10+ days ago.  Yeah DC is going from 55-60 to 45-50 but  so what ..

Weve got until 1/10 to get the delayed mantra off the table and low pressures to move in the way that permits snow and cold here. 

 

Curious what are you basing any delay on...the models?

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12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m curious why you don’t recognize your denial 

Let’s get some cold and snow in here. So far the projection from Nov and early Dec of change on 12/15, then Christmas, then most assuredly 12/28 or 29 did not occur. We’ve got until 1/10 or we are sunk. I take No pleasure in sunk  Low pressures and clippers gotta synchronized up . Noll going nuts about the umpteenth SSW which is perpetually just about to happen when things are not going well. MJO-Well Who Knows. 

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Long range models did a good job this year.  We can quibble about the exact transition date, but a colder and stormier pattern appears to be on its way.  Will we get a decent snowstorm or two?  Hope so, there are definitely some  players on the table.

And the entire month at least appears to have potential.  WB XMAS EURO weeklies;

February is also looking good through Day 8.

IMG_2437.png

IMG_2439.png

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1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s get some cold and snow in here. So far the projection from Nov and early Dec of change on 12/15, then Christmas, then most assuredly 12/28 or 29 did not occur. We’ve got until 1/10 or we are sunk. I take No pleasure in sunk  Low pressures and clippers gotta synchronized up . Noll going nuts about the umpteenth SSW which is perpetually just about to happen when things are not going well. MJO-Well Who Knows. 

Arguing with a toddler is pointless; best case scenario is you win an argument with a toddler. So I say this not to argue with this specific individual but for the rest of the folks reading the thread: this is emphatically not what is happening.
 

Reference the images a few days ago in my exchange with WW—the models advertised a pattern change for late December and a pattern change is indeed coming. Regardless of someone’s feelings, facts are facts and all of this data is freely available on sites like TT and pivotal; anyone can feel free to scroll back 10-15 days and see how the GEFS or EPS envisioned the atmosphere for this time period. The long-range models are pretty good at figuring out long wave patterns two weeks out, actually! 

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6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s get some cold and snow in here. So far the projection from Nov and early Dec of change on 12/15, then Christmas, then most assuredly 12/28 or 29 did not occur. We’ve got until 1/10 or we are sunk. I take No pleasure in sunk  Low pressures and clippers gotta synchronized up . Noll going nuts about the umpteenth SSW which is perpetually just about to happen when things are not going well. MJO-Well Who Knows. 

This was day 12-19 on guidance 10 days ago  

IMG_0598.thumb.png.d3ec114e7a1947638bc86095120d892e.png

This is what it looks like now!
IMG_0599.thumb.png.dbf363ca67bd7e2a6481b9bb56b5dfb0.png

Amazing job by guidance!  You picked a weird time to start in with this anti long range crusade of yours when the long range guidance has been absolutely killing it lately.  

 

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