Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS = not much to see here

If it’s not 40” in 16 days I want nothing to do with it

Merry Christmas 

[JenkinsJinkies]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

All I want for Christmas is fringed 

Perhaps Orthodox Christmas

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This frame here definitely intrigues me. The big storm being shown today is roughly 2 weeks out but the pattern load up that eventually rolls downstream to setup that storm is depicted at day 7-8. This timeframe will be crucial to watch over the next 5ish days

Anchors Away

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981).  Subtle differences can tilt this either way. 

It’s cover all bases programming. There is no help for those who deny  that.  Not saying that you do. 
Observing  and documenting weather and outcomes for 50 years goes well beyond the results of model sampling examples.

When a delay pattern takes over it rarely reverses. I certainly was here when in mid to late Nov  the examples showed pattern change mid Dec, then Christmas, then end of month, then first few days of Jan, now moving toward mid Jan. Get to about 1/10 and it’s game over. A 10” in mid Feb is not saving winter.  Delayed but not denied is really mostly delayed and in denial.  360 day examples are worth jack shit, 240 much the same. “Guidance” is a euphemism for clueless .  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Merry Christmas to all my friends to the South. And Merry 12z gfs!

[Weather Will]

28 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s cover all bases programming. There is no help for those who deny  that.  Not saying that you do. 
Observing  and documenting weather and outcomes for 50 years goes well beyond the results of model sampling examples.

When a delay pattern takes over it rarely reverses. I certainly was here when in mid to late Nov  the examples showed pattern change mid Dec, then Christmas, then end of month, then first few days of Jan, now moving toward mid Jan. Get to about 1/10 and it’s game over. A 10” in mid Feb is not saving winter.  Delayed but not denied is really mostly delayed and in denial.  360 day examples are worth jack shit, 240 much the same. “Guidance” is a euphemism for clueless .  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

All I want for Christmas is fringed 

You and me both my fellow alum

[jayyy]

Someone got coal for Christmas this morning. Sheesh

[Ji]

Euro d10 looks interesting: the cape storm

[jayyy]

Euro d10 looks interesting: the cape storm

Show us young Jidi

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Show us young Jidi

Its trying.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its trying.

That’s probably a hammer if you go 24 more

[CAPE]

The 12z GFS gave us a KU for the around the 9th. GEFS? You have to squint a little, but there is a bit of a signal there.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro d10 looks interesting: the cape storm

I'm just identifying possible discrete threat windows each model cycle, and discussing the possibilities and trends. No bold predictions from me. My shining moment came in identifying the early Jan 2022 storm threat 2 weeks out when we were in the hopeless shit the blinds pattern. That was the CAPE storm. I retired after that.

[frd]

SSWE becoming more and more likely. 

AO expected to dive soon, and then we await on the after effects of the warming.  Too soon to know where the coldest anomalies are directed to.  

 

 

[WEATHER53]

When a better pattern comes it will be low pressures to our  south and/or off the coast. Not Ohio  Valley. 
Clippers  must show up.. This will happen inside a 5 day window and models won’t see it in advance 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its trying.

That's probably rain verbatim. Models backed off on the -epo today that they had developed yesterday around that time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s cover all bases programming. There is no help for those who deny  that.  Not saying that you do. 
Observing  and documenting weather and outcomes for 50 years goes well beyond the results of model sampling examples.

When a delay pattern takes over it rarely reverses. I certainly was here when in mid to late Nov  the examples showed pattern change mid Dec, then Christmas, then end of month, then first few days of Jan, now moving toward mid Jan. Get to about 1/10 and it’s game over. A 10” in mid Feb is not saving winter.  Delayed but not denied is really mostly delayed and in denial.  360 day examples are worth jack shit, 240 much the same. “Guidance” is a euphemism for clueless .  

I think we're seeing signs that there could be a good Winter period coming, but it's not going to be a wall-to wall Winter at this point. For one, the Aleutian ridge is not nearly as strong this year as previous years, and that has been our kryptonite. 

[Ji]

SSWE becoming more and more likely. 
AO expected to dive soon, and then we await on the after effects of the warming.  Too soon to know where the coldest anomalies are directed to.  

 
[/url]  

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think we're seeing signs that there could be a good Winter period coming, but it's not going to be a wall-to wall Winter at this point. For one, the Aleutian ridge is not nearly as strong this year as previous years, and that has been our kryptonite. 

A strong Aleutian ridge is a feature of La Nina. We in a Nino Chuck.

[WEATHER53]

28th forward does not start any change.  That was a Solid target date  just 10+ days ago.  Yeah DC is going from 55-60 to 45-50 but  so what ..

Weve got until 1/10 to get the delayed mantra off the table and low pressures to move in the way that permits snow and cold here. 

 

[Deck Pic]

53 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro d10 looks interesting: the cape storm

It's a snowstorm.  January 2nd could be too.  

[Deck Pic]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

28th forward does not start any change.  That was a Solid target date  just 10+ days ago.  Yeah DC is going from 55-60 to 45-50 but  so what ..

Weve got until 1/10 to get the delayed mantra off the table and low pressures to move in the way that permits snow and cold here. 

 

We're getting snow the first week of january

[Rjay]

On 12/24/2023 at 8:35 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Sorry WxUSAF I am not trying to start a forum war on Christmas Eve but thought this was hilarious and wanted to share in good cheer.

Its funny how each forum has its own personality.

Happy Holidays.

Plus no one thinks it will never snow again.  

[WEATHER53]

22 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

We're getting snow the first week of january

You are the knowing one so good   to hear 

[WinterWxLuvr]

37 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

We're getting snow the first week of january

Post more please. I miss you being around

[Ji]

28th forward does not start any change.  That was a Solid target date  just 10+ days ago.  Yeah DC is going from 55-60 to 45-50 but  so what ..
Weve got until 1/10 to get the delayed mantra off the table and low pressures to move in the way that permits snow and cold here. 
 

You okay Howard?

[CAPE]

12z EPS still likes the 4-5th.

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s cover all bases programming. There is no help for those who deny  that.  Not saying that you do. 
Observing  and documenting weather and outcomes for 50 years goes well beyond the results of model sampling examples.

When a delay pattern takes over it rarely reverses. I certainly was here when in mid to late Nov  the examples showed pattern change mid Dec, then Christmas, then end of month, then first few days of Jan, now moving toward mid Jan. Get to about 1/10 and it’s game over. A 10” in mid Feb is not saving winter.  Delayed but not denied is really mostly delayed and in denial.  360 day examples are worth jack shit, 240 much the same. “Guidance” is a euphemism for clueless .  

In late November we were excited by a projected blocking regime and what that portends for a Nino winter. And the block did happen. No one was discussing a snow threat for us from that. Guidance showed a warm pattern. 
 

The guidance I was referencing was NCEP analogs. It wasn’t a forecast, it wasn’t the predicting 1996 and 2002, what that product was showing is that in the past similar patterns to this have produced varying results. Some good some not. Subtle differences could be the difference. 
 

We all are familiar with your feelings regarding NWP. That’s fine. You’re entitled to your opinion. But these weren't good examples to plant your flag. 

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

When a better pattern comes it will be low pressures to our  south and/or off the coast. Not Ohio  Valley. 
Clippers  must show up.. This will happen inside a 5 day window and models won’t see it in advance 

It’s not the 1990s. Guidance has become incredibly good at identifying the long wave pattern day 5-10. I can’t remember the last snowy period that guidance didn’t indicate was coming way before day 5. Frankly usually we see the signs before day 10. A discreet event might not show until inside day 5. But lately the vast majority of even discreet threats show before day 5. Even that marginal funky anafront wave showed up on guidance from 5 days out!    

57 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

28th forward does not start any change.  That was a Solid target date  just 10+ days ago.  Yeah DC is going from 55-60 to 45-50 but  so what ..

Weve got until 1/10 to get the delayed mantra off the table and low pressures to move in the way that permits snow and cold here. 

 

A pattern change doesn’t mean we instantly snow. You seem overly focused on snow otg but in the long range we’re often discussing a process. There was no cold anywhere in North America. We can’t go from that snow by snapping a finger. It’s taking some time after the long wave pattern flips to establish enough cold in our area to get snow. Even then we will need luck. It is a pretty good pattern to get a snowstorm in the eastern US. But it could go just north of us. Just south. Cut island a bit. Out to sea. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow. We also need luck. 

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In late November we were excited by a projected blocking regime and what that portends for a Nino winter. And the block did happen. No one was discussing a snow threat for us from that. Guidance showed a warm pattern. 
 

The guidance I was referencing was NCEP analogs. It wasn’t a forecast, it wasn’t the predicting 1996 and 2002, what that product was showing is that in the past similar patterns to this have produced varying results. Some good some not. Subtle differences could be the difference. 
 

We all are familiar with your feelings regarding NWP. That’s fine. You’re entitled to your opinion. But these weren't good examples to plant your flag. 

It’s not the 1990s. Guidance has become incredibly good at identifying the long wave pattern day 5-10. I can’t remember the last snowy period that guidance didn’t indicate was coming way before day 5. Frankly usually we see the signs before day 10. A discreet event might not show until inside day 5. But lately the vast majority of even discreet threats show before day 5. Even that marginal funky anafront wave showed up on guidance from 5 days out!    

A pattern change doesn’t mean we instantly snow. You seem overly focused on snow otg but in the long range we’re often discussing a process. There was no cold anywhere in North America. We can’t go from that snow by snapping a finger. It’s taking some time after the long wave pattern flips to establish enough cold in our area to get snow. Even then we will need luck. It is a pretty good pattern to get a snowstorm in the eastern US. But it could go just north of us. Just south. Cut island a bit. Out to sea. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow. We also need luck. 

Kinda obsessive there sport

You  self appointed “correcting” of Everyone is Old now.