Chris78 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: The complication of NS shortwaves digging south. This is really close to something good, but wave interactions/ timing is so critical. A tad too much/too soon. All our hopes and dreams are dependent on the random nature of it lol. What changed over the last few days that now so many northern vorts are involved? Compared to more pure southern stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 The 29th just lost 8 degrees here at the same time Friday, and the 5th … lows don’t typically track from New Orleans to Athens to Richmond so I wouldn’t place a lot of faith in that solution but it shows tons of promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 29 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Panic room about to go full blown operational in the next 10 days if we don’t get something. Gotta have at least a region wide WWA Stay calm all is well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: The complication of NS shortwaves digging south. This is really close to something good, but wave interactions/ timing is so critical. A tad too much/too soon. All our hopes and dreams are dependent on the random nature of it lol. Look at those height lines. We are getting close 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: What changed over the last few days that now so many northern vorts are involved? Compared to more pure southern stream Guidance seems to be picking up on the impressive amplitude of the EPO ridge, which exhibits a wave break, capturing NS energy underneath in the flow between it and the west side of the TPV, sending it southward. It's pretty exciting from a physics perspective, but it becomes more complex wrt getting the ultimate outcome we want. We do simple pretty well.. complicated is more of a crapshoot lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: The complication of NS shortwaves digging south. This is really close to something good, but wave interactions/ timing is so critical. A tad too much/too soon. All our hopes and dreams are dependent on the random nature of it lol. Thought a flurry of NS vorts was usually a Nina problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Fantasy land material but here comes the west based block with a TPV trapped in a decent location. Not worth mentioning I guess but ens have been hinting at this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought a flurry of NS vorts was usually a Nina problem? Not binary. There are always gray areas. Nuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Fantasy land material but here comes the west based block with a TPV trapped in a decent location. Not worth mentioning I guess but ens have been hinting at this. What this? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: What this? Ha, was about to say HH was tee’d up at the end. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: What this? A come to Papa look! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ha, was about to say HH was tee’d up at the end. But the pna 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: What this? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 36 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Not delayed. Was just pointing out the silliness of analyzing Jan 9th model output on 12/24. Exactly my feelings so why do we do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not binary. There are always gray areas. Nuance. Don't know the reason for the snark here as I just asked a layman question...but getting back to the point I get it. I was legit wondering--this is my first niño tracking since being on this board (I was here in 2016 but wasn't looking at things as closley), so I really haven't known what to expect on some things like that. How much NS we get in a niño, how it looks...etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 37 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 18z tries for January 4th/5th. A little to warm though. LOL did you see the 12z GFS the same storm was 972 275 miles out and on January 3rd. As I said it will come west it did now split the difference in 12z GFS and 18z GFS and BOOM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: LOL did you see the 12z GFS the same storm was 972 275 miles out and on January 3rd. As I said it will come west it did now split the difference in 12z GFS and 18z GFS and BOOM! Those are two different waves not the same one. 18z gfs is still out to sea with the energy the 3rd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Exactly my feelings so why do we do it? Because there isn’t an eminent threat before that to discuss. If we had a storm 3 days away no one would be looking at day 15 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Few weeks…or many. We are running out of weeks. Please say few…couple is too hopeful. Running out of weeks? Winter started 3 days ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 29 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Exactly my feelings so why do we do it? Disappointment addiction in the same vain as rage addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 hours ago, WSWL said: Yes Matters where you are. Not necessarily better for the NW burbs. Jumpers suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 90th percentile snow analog for funsies 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS says go to the mountains if you want snow the next 10 days in the mid Atlantic. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 I can't make this stuff up for day 10-15. WB 18Z GEFS. 2 1 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I can't make this stuff up for day 10-15. WB 18Z GEFS. At least its not teasing us with 10-15” or 50%+ chance of 3”+ on day 15 like it did all winter last year 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with the CC point. Wrt this winter I want to get more snow from this next window also but I wouldn’t rule out still going epic even if it doesn’t start until late January. Week SPV, Nino, -qbo the ingredients are there to go on an absolute tear if we can just time things up. We can hit climo in one storm in a Nino. Then all we need are a couple other hits and we get into memorable season territory. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 all had epic runs post Jan 20. So long as we see the seeds being laid, nao going negative mainly…I think we are still ok One reason is that NWP is better at picking out the major long wave flow at range than discreet surface features. Another is that we can look at an ensemble mean to get an even better idea of the long wave pattern but you can’t do that as effectively with surface features. Plus if you are skilled you’re often better off figuring out what should happen given the long wave pattern at range than relying on the surface details of nwp. Right.. I dont know if anyone remembers this but the weather channel used to have a segment called "A look ahead" where they would show the jet stream pattern up to 7-10 days in the future. It was a great segment and they used it to warn people ahead of time for snow storm potential. That was probably my earliest memories of following weather models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 18z GEFS pattern & temps still look good for the 7 day period for day 9 through 16. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: At least its not teasing us with 10-15” or 50%+ chance of 3”+ on day 15 like it did all winter last year Sadly it appears like that wasn't enough to clue people into their value 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 minute ago, WSWL said: You are the only poster who gives a crap about these stupid, worthless maps. Please just stop I personally like Weather Will's contributions, including these crazy maps. Have some Christmas cheer, man....or at least have another spiked egg nog. Merry Christmas everyone! May we all be blessed with massive snows soon. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, WSWL said: You are the only poster who gives a crap about these stupid, worthless maps. Please just stop That’s not the Christmas spirit, Clark. Have a drink, go for a walk, to bed, etc. let’s not be nasty with each other tonight. That can resume on the 26th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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