Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[TSSN+]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. 

Well if we believe the long range ensembles then this matches what we should see in that period but who knows 

[nw baltimore wx]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

What in the world are you taking about? Read the thread. No one has said that.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS, looks good...

[Terpeast]

Even if International Falls is +10, we can still hover near normal

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58651-mid-to-long-range-discussion-~-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7085868

 

[Blizzard of 93]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS, looks good...

Hopefully this is our first chance of many this season.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, Solution Man said:

I just placed 5,000 in the Field and that roll came up.

Thats 10K for me and 35 inches of snow for the Mid Atlantic.

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I just placed 5,000 in the Field and that roll came up.

Thats 10K for me and 35 inches of snow for the Mid Atlantic.

Love it brother 

[nj2va]

5 hours ago, osfan24 said:

We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter?

I dunno dude, looks like we should just start planting our gardens for the year.  Wall to wall spring is in store.  Just punt it all.

[jayyy]

I dunno dude, looks like we should just start planting our gardens for the year.  Wall to wall spring is in store.  Just punt it all.

Last 7 years have jaded him big time.

[Steve25]

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Last 7 years have jaded him big time.

For sure. It is hard to blame folks, though. It's been a really tough stretch. Coming off the worst winter in this regions entire history, within possibly the worst stretch of winters in history, coming up on a massive nor'easter on Christmas week that will be entirely rain. My hope is alive for January and February, but I get it. 

[peribonca]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

For sure. It is hard to blame folks, though. It's been a really tough stretch. Coming off the worst winter in this regions entire history, within possibly the worst stretch of winters in history, coming up on a massive nor'easter on Christmas week that will be entirely rain. My hope is alive for January and February, but I get it. 

The fact that we rain with a big storm in December isn't surprising at all... Rain in Schefferville on the otherhand is nuts. 

[CAPE]

0z EPS has the NAO going negative/50-50 low with a building EPO ridge and +PNA for the beginning of Jan.

[CAPE]

Yesterday's edition of the weeklies have this look a few days later. Maybe we do see an early Jan -NAO period. The latest CMC Ext depicted an early Jan -NAO. GEFS Ext looks neutral. Overall the advertised pattern progression looks very favorable heading into the beginning of snow climo season.

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yesterday's edition of the weeklies have this look a few days later. Maybe we do see an early Jan -NAO period. The latest CMC Ext depicted an early Jan -NAO. GEFS Ext looks neutral. Overall the advertised pattern progression looks very favorable heading into the beginning of snow climo season.

This all seems to be happening exactly as advertised from awhile back...who was the one who put notions of can kicking in people's heads? We all want Christmas time to be wintry but was it ever advertised to be or just the beginning of the transition? That's my memory at least...whoever that pied piper was needs to be ashamed for stoking the flames of winters past fears.

[North Balti Zen]

Seconded.

[Bob Chill]

Pretty interested in the extended for the first time since Thanksgiving. Imo only- it's a decent storm look but not a big one. A big wrapped up storm would prob end up too warm or carry elevated risk of being warm. Something moving more laterally to our south should have no problem having some ok air to work with.

Don't think we can survive big SE flow in advance of anything yet until North America and the Atlantic cool down some more. Modest storm with northerly flow start to finish could produce something we haven't seen in a long time lol.... you know... one of those 4-8" snows that don't leave too many people out lol. Wut?!?

Just throwin down some random thoughts. Nothing serious or well researched 

[midatlanticweather]

9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

This all seems to be happening exactly as advertised from awhile back...who was the one who put notions of can kicking in people's heads? We all want Christmas time to be wintry but was it ever advertised to be or just the beginning of the transition? That's my memory at least...whoever that pied piper was needs to be ashamed for stoking the flames of winters past fears.

There were definitely models showing a favorable setup for Christmas week. That is delayed and the look now being advertised does not look like what the long range was showing. The long range also went very warm with pacific air overtaking all North America. So, yes, things did look bad for a bit and then improved. We are also still seeing changes far enough off that it could be changed again. 

 

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z EPS has the NAO going negative/50-50 low with a building EPO ridge and +PNA for the beginning of Jan.

Dang…that’s really nice. 6z gfs with snow to rain in that period. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

This all seems to be happening exactly as advertised from awhile back...who was the one who put notions of can kicking in people's heads? We all want Christmas time to be wintry but was it ever advertised to be or just the beginning of the transition? That's my memory at least...whoever that pied piper was needs to be ashamed for stoking the flames of winters past fears.

Guidance does have a tendency to 'rush' pattern changes. That being said, I never saw what I would consider can kicking. I suppose that's subjective, and the notion of it mostly seems to be rooted in fear or impatience.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, peribonca said:

The fact that we rain with a big storm in December isn't surprising at all... Rain in Schefferville on the otherhand is nuts. 

I always bring this up.... our area averages about 10" of precip during met winter. Climo snow is about a 5th of that. We get a lot of rain every winter in every month. Period. It's that simple and it shouldn't be such a sticking point every year. 

Our winter wx comes in runs so winter experience can be compressed into 2 week or whatever memories of deep winter and all the rain is forgotten in the rear view. But not in real time. Lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

This all seems to be happening exactly as advertised from awhile back...who was the one who put notions of can kicking in people's heads? We all want Christmas time to be wintry but was it ever advertised to be or just the beginning of the transition? That's my memory at least...whoever that pied piper was needs to be ashamed for stoking the flames of winters past fears.

There was can kicking, but only about a week, which I suspected would be the case. Early January is the typical timing of a flip in ninos with a similar December longwave pattern.  We might have a shot at something just before new years but it’s still likely just after that true cold starts to take hold. . 
 

But make no mistake guidance was originally rushing the pattern by about a week. 12 days ago this was the look for Xmas on the EPS. 

We still get to that but not until closer to New Years.
 

 I said we’re fine as long as we don’t get to new years without the pattern change eminent. BUT…if we did get to Jan with no sign of the pac backing off and a raging +AO history says it’s game over for getting a favorable long wave pattern this winter. I think some just don’t like having that hanging over our heads. But that wasn’t a prediction just a factual statement of what historical data says. In all past similar December Ninos the pattern either begins to flip by early January or it stays crap all winter. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

0z GEPS was also very nice for the same period. I agree with @WxUSAFand @Bob Chill respectively....either a snow to rain situation if a tighter storm or we cash in with a pos/neutral tilt trof and wave sliding across ala the EPS. Its a nice window to wind out the year and ring in the new.

[psuhoffman]

Bobs here it’s on 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Bobs here it’s on 

I'm heading back to MD on Wed for a couple weeks. Maybe longer if real winter sets in. Been working non stop since Labor day down here. It's going to be quite the adjustment going back to the rat race this time. I've been in MD just 5 days in 3 months lol. I love it down in VA so much now, Rockville will never feel good to me anymore.... unless there is a foot of snow or ice to enjoy. 

As far as I can tell, it's probably on for a few weeks or more if we can keep flow/shortwaves sliding south of our area for more than a 1 off event. Train tracks comes to mind when I look at extended ens. We'll see how it goes when better stuff gets closer in time. 

[WxUSAF]

@Ralph Wiggum…that longwave pattern argues for weaker progressive waves. Everything is positively tilted with an eastward lean. That’s good for us, there’s no deep cold air yet so we need something that doesn’t wrap in a bunch of warm air. Just need a weak wave sliding to our south and hopefully there’s a band of snow on the north side. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

@Ralph Wiggum…that longwave pattern argues for weaker progressive waves. Everything is positively tilted with an eastward lean. That’s good for us, there’s no deep cold air yet so we need something that doesn’t wrap in a bunch of warm air. Just need a weak wave sliding to our south and hopefully there’s a band of snow on the north side. 

This. Just this. It's Dec and it hasn't been cold anywhere. Snow cover to our north and west is abysmal. Keep neg and neutral tilt talk north of 40. Prob 42 lol

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm heading back to MD on Wed for a couple weeks. Maybe longer if real winter sets in. Been working non stop since Labor day down here. It's going to be quite the adjustment going back to the rat race this time. I've been in MD just 5 days in 3 months lol. I love it down in VA so much now, Rockville will never feel good to me anymore.... unless there is a foot of snow or ice to enjoy. 

As far as I can tell, it's probably on for a few weeks or more if we can keep flow/shortwaves sliding south of our area for more than a 1 off event. Train tracks comes to mind when I look at extended ens. We'll see how it goes when better stuff gets closer in time. 

I travel a lot and the vibe is just so different when you get out of the area. It’s even a little better (wrt laid back) up here v closer to DC. I’ll definitely be going somewhere once the kids are gone. Still a ways away for me though. 
 

I agree with your thoughts. The pacific dominant pattern showing up is one where waves can work well. If the nao goes negative then we can start hecs hunting. 

[87storms]

I always bring this up.... our area averages about 10" of precip during met winter. Climo snow is about a 5th of that. We get a lot of rain every winter in every month. Period. It's that simple and it shouldn't be such a sticking point every year. 
Our winter wx comes in runs so winter experience can be compressed into 2 week or whatever memories of deep winter and all the rain is forgotten in the rear view. But not in real time. Lol

I was thinking the other day how, at least east of the mountains, we tend to snow 2-3 times in an ideal window of opportunity. It’s no different than in any season when we get into an AN or BN pattern for a couple weeks. We’re not very good at wall to wall winters with the exception of the 2013-2015 legends. Also agree re the Atlantic, which played into my snowfall prediction. It was a problem last year as well and may take some more time to become favorable.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This. Just this. It's Dec and it hasn't been cold anywhere. Snow cover to our north and west is abysmal. Keep neg and neutral tilt talk north of 40. Prob 42 lol

If a wave wants to secondary or go berserk once it’s east of our latitude I’m fine with that lol. But yea it would take perfect timing for an amplified system to work without blocking in a marginal airmass. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Ralph Wiggum…that longwave pattern argues for weaker progressive waves. Everything is positively tilted with an eastward lean. That’s good for us, there’s no deep cold air yet so we need something that doesn’t wrap in a bunch of warm air. Just need a weak wave sliding to our south and hopefully there’s a band of snow on the north side. 

Still a strong signal for a storm in this window. Still on the mild side but decent shot at some frozen inland with this one.

The next one should have some colder air to work with. One can envision this tracking just underneath, with a bit more of a cold feed. EPS has a colder look for around new Years.